Japan’s gross domestic product shrank in the third quarter of 2014 at 1.6 per cent per annum over the quarter and 1 per cent over the previous 12 months. This disappointed the stock market, which fell by more than 2 per cent. It then recovered almost fully the next day on the news that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had called a snap election, designed to give him a mandate to postpone the increase in consumption tax otherwise due in October 2015.

Governments can boost demand by increasing expenditure or by cutting taxes. Disappointing GDP data do not therefore provide much reason for gloom unless the government appears unwilling to boost demand or the data reflect a problem of supply rather than demand. Read more

Japan cannot put its economy on to a sustainable path unless it reforms its corporation tax system. Fortunately, this is now under active discussion. Unfortunately, it is far from clear that the right changes will be made.

One sector of the economy cannot lend unless another borrows. The sum of the net lending and net borrowing in an economy must therefore equal zero. Japan’s government is a huge borrower and, if this is to be brought down to a sustainable level, the net lending of other sectors must come down by an equal amount. As chart one shows, it is the corporate sector which has moved into massive cash surplus since 1988, when Japan’s fiscal balance moved into a structural deficit. It is therefore the corporate sector which must take the brunt of any fall in government borrowing through a similar decline in the sector’s net lending. Current tax arrangements and regulations are the key cause of the massive cash surpluses run by companies which must be brought down if the fiscal deficit is to be reduced to manageable proportions. Read more

Hedge funds’ portfolios are often leveraged and they can be big winners or losers if this pays off. In this sense the US is also a hedge fund. In terms of its international assets, the US is long equities and short debt. This has been hugely to its advantage because equities have given much better returns, but this benefit carries large risks for the future.

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The damage done to the UK and US economies by buybacks in preference to capital investment was a central theme of my book The Road to Recovery, and it has found its way, not too often I hope, into these blogs. I have therefore been heartened by the growing interest shown by the financial press in this threat to our economies. The Economist recently devoted a major section to the issue, as did the Financial Times on October 12.

The change in the way managements are paid drives buybacks but this has yet to be widely appreciated. The US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme was rightly underlined by my colleagues as adding the fuel of cheap debt but, without the preference for buybacks, low bond yields would have encouraged capital investment. This they markedly failed to do. An important paper, shortly to be published in the Review of Financial Studies, “Corporate Investment and Stock Market Listing: A Puzzle?” by John Asker, Joan Farre-Mensa and Alexander Ljungqvist demonstrates that a huge difference has appeared in recent years in the levels of investment by quoted and unquoted companies. Read more

The following comment on my blog post about quantitative easing and the eurozone struck a chord:

“The unaddressed and unanswered question about fiscal stimulus in the eurozone is about why it will be anything other than another short-term sugar rush?” Read more

I showed in my previous blog that the ratio of depreciation to operating profits is much higher in the published figures for Japanese non-financial companies than it is for their US counterparts and that this could not be justified in terms of either the amount of equipment that needed to be depreciated or the rate at which it should be written off. There is therefore a strong implication that Japanese profits are understated relative to US ones, but this is subject to two provisos.

First, even if the ratio of depreciation to output should be the same in both countries, the ratio of operating profits could be very different if US companies had much higher ratios of profits to output than Japanese ones. Read more

In two earlier blogs I explained why the cyclically adjusted price earnings yield (Cape) could not sensibly be applied to valuing Japanese shares. (One of several reasons is that Cape is only valid if profit margins are mean reverting over relatively short periods of time, such as 10 years or so, and this has not been the case in Japan.) This does not mean that they cannot be valued by other means. In this and the next blog I attempt one possible way to do this. Read more

The eurozone’s economy appears to have stalled. It was widely expected that growth would pick up to 1 per cent this year, but these estimates are now being toned down as the first two quarters of 2014 have been below expectations. The pattern shown in chart one (below) is, at best, one of stagnation. It is therefore agreed with near unanimity that the eurozone’s economy needs a boost.

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It is generally agreed that the stock market dislikes falling profits and rising interest rates and that the two in combination are particularly to be feared. History supports this. According to my rough calculations, the stock market has declined 29 per cent of the time since 1947, but 40 per cent when falling profits and rising interest rates have coincided. Fortunately for investors, such conditions are relatively rare, as 75 per cent of the time the impact of rising rates has been offset by higher profits.

In a recent blog I argued that the risk of a negative combination of interest rates and profits is unusually high. Profits tend to be boosted by falls in personal savings, which have now fallen to a low level and this support is now less likely. Since 1947 increases in interest rates have been accompanied by rising profits in 23 years; in all but six of these years personal savings have fallen. History, therefore, suggests that the decline in savings has been very important in reducing the risks of the damaging coincidence of rising rates and falling profits. Read more

In my previous post I showed why it seems likely that profits published by US companies are currently overstated by much more than they have been in the past. This does not necessarily mean that the degree of overvaluation of the stock market shown by cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratios is understated. The profits as published have been far more volatile than shown in the national accounts, and it is probable that published profits were heavily understated in 2008, as earnings per share in Q4 2008 were negative, while those shown in NIPA Table 1.14 remained strongly positive. Read more