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Market mayhem
Emerging markets are once again in the firing line from the salvoes of bad news coming from the EU as they have been all this week.
Taiwan leader fined for Facebook post
Could Taiwan’s president Ma Ying-jeou be the first person in the world to be fined for his activities on Facebook?
Ma, who won re-election to a second term earlier this year, was on Wednesday ordered to pay T$500,000 (US$16,666) by the island’s Central Election Commission for posting a message to his Facebook campaign page on the day of the election.
Further reading: booting out
Wednesday’s waifs and strays from the BB team: Martin Wolf on superpower; the impact of a Grexit; India is breaking down… and annoyed with Russian tourists. Plus: the old “build and they will come” theory in UAE; Asian asymmetry; Ghana’s moment à la Mobius; and Putin’s G8 snub – good move, or kick him out?
Deutsche: China’s cheap for a reason
Another growl from Deutsche Bank’s emerging markets bear, John-Paul Smith. This time he’s had a close look at Chinese corporates – and doesn’t like what he sees.
He’s worried about the overcapacity created in the recent huge investment wave, compounded by Beijing’s failure to maintain discipline over its free-spending regions or enforce loudly-touted consolidation plans in key industries, eg steel.
Investors should therefore be wary of the apparent cheapness of Chinese stocks. Far from being a buying opportunity, low prices are signalling “a major break in the growth model”. Caveat emptor.
China: troubling news hits Hang Seng
For the bulls, Wednesday is so far a matter of “look away now”. Worst hit among Asian markets – all of which are comfortably in negative territory – is the Hang Seng, down more than 3 per cent by mid-afternoon.
While the main concern for investors globally might be Greece, the slow drum beat of bad news from China continues.
Indonesia: spending power of the poor
Selling jewellery to Asia’s newly rich or insurance to the emerging middle class might sound more glamorous than selling sachets of shampoo to the poor.
But in fast-growing Indonesia, lower-cost consumer goods are where it’s at, according to Standard Chartered. The combined spending power of those Indonesians making under $4/day adds up to some eye-catching numbers: they represent over half of household spending.
Wonga returns to its African roots
Short-term online loans company Wonga, based in London, has opened for business in South Africa, the home of its founders Errol Damelin and Jonty Hurwitz. The UK business has generated a lot of headlines, both good and bad.
The company has just launched a new business service in the UK – with the usual debates over the high level of interest levied (The men who made £50 million from other people’s cash woes is one typical example). So will the South African arm cause the same angst?
Venezuela: Chavez or Capriles?
More bizarre poll results from Venezuela. As if people weren’t uncertain enough about their country’s political future, what with the government treating the precise condition of Hugo Chavez’s health as a state secret, opinion polls are just making things worse.
Two poll results out on Tuesday offer astoundingly different versions of the state of public opinion in the Opec country: one says Chávez will win the presidential elections in October by a huge margin, while another actually gives the opposition candidate a slight lead.
Brazil’s consumers: deeper in debt
More interesting data on Brazil’s credit market on Tuesday: the number of consumers looking for loans fell by 11.2 per cent from March to April and demand for credit during the first four months of the year fell by 7.6 per cent compared to the same period last year – the sharpest fall in demand for credit since 2008, according to Serasa Experian, a credit data company.
The figures offer further evidence that Brazil’s credit-fuelled consumer boom is running out of steam.
Social gifting comes to Brazil
Walk into any internet café in Brazil – be it in São Paulo’s banking district or in one of Rio’s favelas – and you can bet that at least somebody will be on Facebook.
Take that into account, as well as the country’s national love of shopping and obsession with trying new stuff, and you have the perfect market for ecommerce apps.
Cove’s gas find could fire up the bids
Cove Energy, the London-listed explorer, that is on Royal Dutch Shell‘s radar as well attracting interest from Asia, may have just got a bit pricier.
The company announced on Tuesday that, together with operator Anadarko Petroleum, it has discovered a new natural gas field off Mozambique – a substantial find. So where does that leave the bidding?
EBRD presidency: Chakrabarti’s candidacy gains ground
If Britain’s Sir Suma Chakrabarti becomes president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – and some insiders give him a decent shot – employees can expect a rather different style from some of his predecessors.
The bank that helped build market democracy in eastern Europe and aspires to do the same in Arab spring countries needs a president who is more of a “CEO”, says the man who set up and manages Britain’s new justice ministry. That means modern management, “nine-box matrices” of performance versus potential, “pulse” surveys. Chakrabarti is, he says, the kind of guy who lunches in the staff canteen.
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