Daily Archives: April 27, 2010

Latin American stocks and currencies slumped along with world markets on Tuesday after S&P downgraded the debt of Greece and Portugal. The benchmark MSCI Latin America stock index lost more than 4 per cent, according to Reuters, while the Mexican peso and Brazilian real both fell sharply against the dollar as investors sold off risky assets.

The Central Bank of Brazil is expected to raise its core interest rates as much as a full percentage point on Wednesday night, as economic growth moves ahead full steam, the FT reports.

A day before the anticipated move, a note from Nomura cautions any BCB rate decision greater than 0.5 per cent could “set a dangerous precedent,” while another note from RBS warns a hike of less than 0.75 per cent will cause “even more fallout” in risk and inflation expectations.

Civet cat… That is, Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa, not the cat-like mammals. But according to HSBC’s CEO Mike Geoghegan, these countries have something in common with the little beasts. “Each has large, young, growing population. Each has a diverse and dynamic economy. And each, in relative terms, is politically stable.”

As Western countries are held back by debt, it is these emerging markets that will lead new global growth, Geoghegan told a group at the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong earlier today.

“BRIC has become the mantra for every business expansion strategy. But in this decade to come, a new group of emerging market dynamos will also emerge.”

Throughout the Cold War, India looked to the former Soviet Union as a one-stop shop to meet nearly all its military equipment needs. It’s then antagonistic relationship with the West – especially Washington – kept Western arms out of reach.

Not any more, though. India now is in the market to overhaul its aging, Soviet-era military hardware, and recent deals – including this week’s news that India may buy ten Boeing C-17 military transport planes for $5.8bn – suggest this could be a bonanza for Western defence contractors.

Boeing, Lockheed Martin, BAE, Dassault Rafale, Saab, and others are all vying intensely for India’s favour as a counter to sluggish Western defence spending. But feeding India’s evident hunger for modern weaponry won’t be easy.

While Igor Shuvalov, Russia’s deputy prime minister, announced yesterday that the superpower was finally ready to join the World Trade Organisation, the recent news flow would suggest Russia is going back in time, not forward.

Shuvalov ’s own rhetoric left some in Washington raising eyebrows. Though the deputy prime minister said Russia was still on track to begin selling off chunks of government assets this summer, he separately noted that Russia would need to implement protectionist measures to counterbalance a rapidly strengthening rouble.

Central and eastern European currencies are trading lower today as stock markets across the region responded negatively to Greek debt news. There are concerns too, about central bank intervention after a warning from Hungary’s central bank about the sharp rise of the forint.

Asian equities indices were back under pressure, as risk appetite waned across global markets on returning fears about potential contagion from the stubborn uncertainty surrounding Greece’s fiscal position. Worries about the impact a Greek default could have on global sentiment echoed across the region, as analysts said bond markets were pricing in such an eventuality and the country’s bonds were trading like the weakest emerging markets. Chinese stocks were unsettled further by the prospect of potential policy moves to cool the country’s property markets.

Central and emerging European currencies have been holding their own amid Greek sovereign debt crisis. But with each day the pressure seems to be rising.  Yesterday, the sight of Greek bond yields shooting up to 13.5 per cent sent Spanish and Portuguese issues into a spin.  Can CEE continue to resist the risk of contagion?

By Song Jung-a in Seoul

South Korea’s strong first-quarter GDP will increase policymakers’ anguish over whether to start tightening monetary policy as they face growing concerns about inflationary pressure and possible asset price bubbles in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
 
The economy grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the highest rate of growth in seven years. It grew a seasonally adjusted 1.8 per cent in the January-March period from the previous quarter. Encouraged by strong economic indicators, the Bank of Korea recently upgraded its growth forecast for this year from 4.6 per cent to 5.2 per cent.

US President Barack Obama didn’t make it out to visit Indonesia and Australia as planned last month because of last-minute manoeuvrings over the congressional vote on his health care bill, but Kurt Campbell, the senior US diplomat for Asia, suggested in Hong Kong last night that the president may have some surprises in store.

Inflation a ‘big worry’ for India, says central bank chief
Private deals signal cracks in China’s iron ore pricing front
Problem is weak dollar, not yuan: Brazil
Russia offers Kiev nuclear power deal
Chanos wrong on China property slump: Fan Gang
India delays biggest fighter jet deal, risking $1bn price rise
Clinton pressed to ban Russian officials
Chinese investors take long view on going global
Germany’s Bayer sees sharp growth in China’s medical market
Colombia has room to hold rates, Zuluaga says
Saudi oil chief fears domestic risk to exports
Spate of multinationals consider Singapore listing

Greystar Resources is appealing a Colombian government request for a new environmental impact assessment that could jeopardise its flagship Angostura gold and silver project.

The open-cut mine in Colombia’s northern Santander department was forecast to yield an average of 511,000 oz of gold and 2.3m oz of silver over 15 years from 2012, a prospect that saw the company’s shares rise 91 per cent over the past year.

The company tried to assuage investor fears in a conference call on Monday, but the stock closed 44.62 per cent down on the Toronto Stock Exchange after trading at three times normal volume.

Global equities macromap

Number of the day

54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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