Daily Archives: May 4, 2010

Latin American markets followed world stocks in a sharp sell-off on Tuesday as fears escalated that the Greek bail-out would not prevent its debt crisis from spreading to other eurozone countries.

Stocks and currencies across the region suffered as investors shied away from risk, and as commodities prices fell on the strengthening dollar and worries over a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing growth.

“Once again risk aversion is taking prisoner of any financial asset that is not the dollar”, Gabriel Casillas, a JPMorgan analyst, told Reuters.

São Paulo skyline from the Jardins neighborhoodHere’s a nice colour piece from the website of Globo, the Rio-based news organisation. It’s about an air stewardess who bought a flat in São Paulo’s fashionable Jardins neighbourhood “on the drawings” in 2008 for R$205,000 and sold it when she got the keys this month for R$355,000.

The piece also gives us some snapshots of how property prices are rising across the country: 100 per cent over the past five years in São Paulo; 100 per cent in two years in Rio; 50 per cent in two years in Brasília; 60 per cent over the past year in Recife, and so on.

A property bubble in Brazil? It’s about time there was one. Wages and prices have been rising by rather more than is comfortable. Consumer confidence is strongly on the up – while business confidence has slipped.

Emerging countries have been hit hard today by the impact of the Greek crisis on global financial markets. With the euro down to its lowest against the US dollar for a year, and leading European equities closing nearly 3 per cent down, there was nowhere for emerging markets to hide, especially not in central and eastern Europe.

Fears over the implementation of the €110bn Greek rescue plan and concerns spooked investors, hitting sentiment in other vulnerable euro countries, headed by Spain and Portugal, and undermining sentiment as far afield as New York, São Paulo and Johannesburg.

Mergers and acquisitions have always proved an elusive quarry for the Gulf’s bankers, but this may be changing. In the first quarter of this year, mergers and acquisitions in six Gulf Cooperation Council countries has amounted to $3.6bn, a figure close to the total amount of M&A activity for 2009, according to research released today.

And this first quarter figure, compiled by Mergermarket statistics, doesn’t even include the Bharti Airtel mega acquisition of Kuwaiti Zain’s African telecoms operations, valued at $10.7bn, to be completed later this year.

Are Gulf countries bucking the trend, and is this evidence of more merger activity a sign of things to come?

Within a month New Delhi will make a judgement over whether Vedanta, the UK-listed mining company, should go ahead with a big bauxite mine in Orissa, in the east of India.

The mine’s future is a test case of what approach the Indian government will take to defuse rising tensions between mining companies and rural communities in the world’s fastest growing large economy, after China.

It is probably just storm in a teacup. Latin American markets took a knock on Tuesday due to fears about sovereign debt problems spreading from distant Greece. Yet this should not be a Latin American concern.

Rather, the continent’s biggest financial problem is the exact opposite of Greece’s, according to Nicolas Eyzaguirre, head of the International Monetary Fund’s western department: how to best manage a surfeit of capital and then cope with the subsequent boom.

What better proof of the resilience of emerging markets – albeit non-European ones – than today’s comments from Holcim, the world’s second-biggest cement producer.

Malaysia is roaring out of recession even faster than expected, with March trade figures published today beating forecasts by a wide margin. The numbers suggest east Asia’s post-crisis recovery is moving ahead even faster than expected. According to the government’s announcement, exports rose 36.4 per cent year-on-year(compared with forecasts of around 20 per cent), and imports by 45.3 per cent (forecasts of around 30 per cent).

Central and eastern European equity markets and currencies weakened on Tuesday as investors remained cool towards Greece’s bailout package.

Pity Romania’s policymakers as they struggle to steer their economy out of recession while they negotiate the fallout from the Greek crisis.  The central bank today cut its benchmarket rate by 0.25 percentage points to a record low of 6.25 per cent. But officials might have gone further had it not been for the risks of inflation and of contagion from Greece.

  • Taiwan’s central bank urges capital controls for Asia economies
  • HSBC China’s April PMI falls to 55.4 from 57.0 in March
  • China shipbuilder Rongsheng floats $1.5bn IPO
  • Agricultural Bank of China set to apply for $30b IPO
  • China bank parent Huijin backs fundraising plans
  • Romania’s central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
  • Algeria says ready to buy Orascom Algerian unit
  • Temasek buys NYSE’s stake in Mumbai bourse
  • Pan-India 3G licence bids continue to soar

Markets: up

So the worst kept secret in Chinese stockbroking is finally out. Citic Securities, the country’s largest broker by revenue and assets, has confirmed that it has inked a landmark deal with France’s Credit Agricole.

This is one ‘memorandum of understanding’ that should blossom immediately. Official confirmation of the tie-up awaited the rubber-stamp from China’s State Council, which has now been delivered, effectively giving it the highest seal of approval.

Concerns about moves to curb China’s runaway property market stood out in Asian equities trade, sending the Shanghai Composite to its lowest closing level since October, with property and bank stocks under the most pressure. Lingering worry about the implications of the ongoing Greek financial crisis also helping curtail risk appetite across global markets. The MSCI Asi Pac down 0.2 per cent at 765.49.

The Vietnamese authorities are moving mountains to open up the country to foreign invesment. But their enthusiasm does not seem to extend to the mining industry. There, if a significant recent deal is any guide, domestic companies will get priority.

  • Marc Faber says Chinese economy could crash within one year
  • Renault and Nissan’s Bajaj car to rival Tata Nano
  • Indians should worry about the IMF loan to Greece
  • Gerhard Schröder says “EU can only remain successful, if it is willing to associate with Russia”
  • Opposition likens Putin to Stalin in a May day rally
  • The relationship between Taiwan and China has never been better
  • Meanwhile, Ma’s use of ‘never’ triggers anxiety in Taiwan
  • FT’s Lex on China’s latest tightening
  • The CEO of Brazil’s Petrobras expects to tap into global demand with $25bn share sale
  • Fifa likely to net $1bn from World Cup
  • A green Brazil

Global equities macromap

Number of the day

54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

Featured posts

Myanmar

A businessman’s guide, British-style

Chart of the week

China’s trade surplus

beyondbrics

The emerging markets hub

About this blog Headlines email Blog guide
News and comment from more than 40 emerging economies, headed by Brazil, Russia, India and China.



'Like' our beyondbrics Facebook page, where we showcase a top story of the day
Sign up for our news headlines and markets snaphot service. We have two emails per day - London and New York headlines (sent at approx 6am and 12pm GMT).

To comment, please register for free with FT.com and read our policy on submitting comments.

There is an overall beyondbrics RSS feed, as well as feeds for all our countries, tags and authors. Learn more in our full RSS guide.

All posts are published in UK time.

Get in touch with us - your comments, advice and even complaints. Find out how to contact the team.

See the full list of FT blogs.

BB shortcuts

Regulars Series Archive
Chart of the week
Behind the numbers

Fund flows
Tracking money in and out of EM bonds
12 for 2012
Guest posts on key trends for the year ahead

Brics at 10
A decade of growth
The Diaspora Digest
EM diasporas, seen through their community media (Oct-Nov 2011)
Sick brics (Sep 2011)
Brics and mortar (Aug 2011)
Beyondbrics on the beach (Jul-Aug 2011)
China bubble? (June 2011)
Post-election Nigeria (June 2011)
Hey bric spender (Aug 2010)

Emerging markets data

Archive

« Apr Jun »May 2010
M T W T F S S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31