Daily Archives: May 6, 2010

Latin America followed world markets sharply lower on Thursday as Europe’s escalating debt crisis sparked wild trading and a further bout of risk aversion. Stocks and currencies across the region followed US stocks in a steep plunge earlier in the day, but recovered some ground and closed at three-month lows.

“It’s really shocking,” Jeff Palma, global strategist at UBS, told the FT.

“Stocks [in the US] fell to minus nine on the year within seconds; that was a pretty shocking move. This is not your normal every day pull back, this is a pretty full-on collapse in risk appetite.”

There was positive news today from beneath the glass-tiled cupola of Mexico’s Stock Exchange (BMV), where shares in Actinver, the newly listed Mexican investment group, rose 2.3 per cent to 11 pesos in early-morning trading.

In Moscow yesterday you could almost hear the Kremlin breathing a sigh of relief.

After nearly a decade of double-digit inflation rates, the rate has fallen sharply through the global crisis and its aftermath, and dropped further last month from an annual 6.5 percent to 6 percent, according to the state statistics service. The Ministry of Economic Development attributed the drop to the lowest level for 12 years to a stronger rouble, a weaker euro, lower import prices and depressed consumer demand.

Euro valuation losses at emerging market central banks are starting to look worryingly big. So how long before some of them start jumping ship?

The Czech central bank today surprised the markets by cutting interest rates in the teeth of the Greek crisis. By reducing its key refinancing rate by 0.25 of a percentage point to 0.75 per cent, it put Czech official rates under the eurozone’s 1 percent.

This is a vote of confidence in the koruna’s ability to withstand any further downward pressure that might be generated by the Greek crisis. It is also a reflection of the central bank’s expectations that economic growth will be sluggish, both in the Czech Republic and the eurozone – and that market interest rates might therefore be edging down.

Here’s a curious observation. Multinationals from BRIC countries are apparently more worried about political risk when investing abroad than their western counterparts. It is sometimes thought to be the other way round.

That’s why, say, Chinese firms have been so active expanding into less developed markets, such as Africa. It is often believed that is because they’re willing to go where western firms are more cautious to tread. But that perception of BRIC corporate fearlessness is inaccurate, according to a survey of 90 companies by the Vale Columbia Centre on Sustainable International Investment.

Walk the streets of Shanghai or Beijing, and you’ll see endless ranks of Volkswagen and Toyota taxis. Chinese officials favour black Audis with ominously tinted-windows. While GM’s Wuling Sunshine minivan is the country’s best selling set of wheels. Now Peugeot-Citroen is seeking to play catch-up in the world’s fastest growing car market.

Analysts have long forecast that the United Arab Emirates would develop into “A Tale of Two Cities” – despite any obvious literary parallels with Dickens’ tome – as oil-rich Abu Dhabi’s economic fortunes overshadow Dubai, its oil-poor neighbour.

And even though spillover effects from Dubai’s wilting real estate sector and $100bn debt burden are still readily apparent, most of Abu Dhabi’s banks have had a relatively steady crisis. Dubai banks, on the other hand, are nervously eyeing their loan books.

With only 12 per cent of its 1.6m kilometres of highways paved, Brazil needs investment in its infrastructure. But as the FT reports today in a 16-page special report on the country’s infrastructure, ‘a bright new future is just out of reach’.

Jonathan Wheatley, the paper’s Brazil correspondent, points out, the government of president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is making progress but struggling to meet the ambitious targets it has set itself.

No-one in the US these days has a good word to say for the ‘Greenspan put’, the idea that when asset prices fall sharply, the Federal Reserve will eventually ride to the rescue and provide a floor for the market by cutting rates. Some people are certain it helped foster the complacency that triggered the financial crisis.

Is China falling into a similar trap over its property market? Can current moves to cool demand be taken seriously when three years ago Beijing went through a similar campaign – only to go into reverse when prices went into freefall? That is the intriguing question proposed by Paul Cavey at Macquarie Research. And his answer is an unequivocal ‘no’.

The relative success of Spain’s auction of five-year bonds on Thursday, has helped to improve market sentiment after yesterday’s turmoil and stabilised most of the Central and eastern European equity and currency markets.

Fears about moves to cool China’s overheating property markets added to the pressure on Asian equity markets from the ongoing worries about the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Shanghai’s main index continued to fall faster than its neighbours, closing 4.1 per cent down, as traders remained pessimistic about the outlook for risk appetite on the mainland.

“For now emerging markets are being buffeted by a wave of contagion that has ravaged risk appetite and triggered stop losses,” Philip Poole, global head of emerging markets research at HSBC, wrote in a note investors today.

  • Nigerian president Umaru Yar’Adua Dies at 58
  • Swire Properties pulls $2.7bn IPO amid “treacherous” market conditions
  • China’s richest couple gets richer after Hepalink IPO
  • Chinese stocks plunge to 8-month low on Greece, property
  • Australia seeks trade pact with India
  • Indian IT giant in race for $38bn deals
  • Guangdong Nuclear plans $1.2bn wind farm
  • Wen worried about jobs moving to Vietnam
  • Peugeot, China’s Changan sign joint venture deal
  • Renault seeks India partner electric car
  • Libya eyes Indonesian oil investment
  • Yanukovych wants EU involved in any Russia-Ukraine gas merger talks
  • Bids for one all-India 3G licence reach $2.46bn

The markets may be falling, but one high-profile Chinese IPO enjoyed a flying start today. The couple who shot from obscurity to the top of China’s rich list last week got a bit richer when their company jumped 18.4 per cent on its trading debut on the Shenzhen stock exchange.

Li Li and his wife Li Tan were worth at least $7.4bn by the close of trading after shares in Hepalink, their small pharmaceutical exporting company, ended their first day at Rmb175.17 per share. That makes them by far the richest couple in China at current estimates.

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54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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