Daily Archives: May 10, 2010

Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Guido Mantega, finance minister, says it is not – but nor is he taking any chances.

Interviewed on video for FT.com at the FT’s Brazil Infrastructure Summit taking place in Rio de Janeiro on Monday and Tuesday, he said demand growth needed curtailing and, since the government was loath to trim private-sector investment or spending, it would instead cut what is widely regarded as the bloated machinery of government in Brasília. All ministries, he said, would be told to make cuts, even though this is election year. By how much? He wasn’t saying, though his aides reckoned it would be about R$10bn. That’s quite a promise. We will be watching to see if it is delivered.

Latin American markets rallied with global equities on Monday as news of a €720bn eurozone rescue package eased concerns over debt contagion and investors regained some risk appetite.

Greek pensioners march in the centre of Athens to protest against the government’s spending cutsLa Nación newspaper carried a poignant picture on its front page at the weekend: Graffiti on a wall in Athens in Spanish which read “Solidarity Athens – Buenos Aires”.

Argentina has indeed been where Greece is now, and Greece must be looking uncomfortably at Argentina to see how the consequences of default play out.

The strong rally fuelled by the Greece support package that swept European equity markets today continued right to the closing bell, with a number of Central and Eastern European bourses seeing their biggest gains since October 2008. The cost of CDS against the region’s sovereign debt tumbled, and currencies surged as investor confidence in the region returned.

Compared to much of western Europe, Poland’s banks had a fairly good crisis. Their profits last year came to 8.7bn zlotys (eur2.18bn) – that’s a 36 per cent drop compared to 2008, but every bank ended the year in the black. This year should be even better.

Maruti's one millionth car rolls out of the Maruti Suzuki plant in Manesar on March 23, 2010Car sales in India rose nearly 40 per cent in April, the fastest growth rate in a decade, in the latest sign that Asia’s third biggest economy is maintaining a robust recovery path.

But the numbers are not necessarily as strong as they appear – the rate of sales growth is slowing, steel prices are rising and government tax incentives for the sector may be reduced. Meanwhile, the central bank, worried about a possible resurgence in inflation, has started raising interest rates which could increase the cost of credit for car buyers.

Turkey’s March industrial production figures missed forecasts today. Or did they? The country is no doubt looking at a healthy recovery – but there’s still plenty of disagreement as to just how healthy.

Indian companies are pressuring the government to allow greater foreign participation in its defence industry as New Delhi gears up to spend more than $100bn over the next decade to modernise its archaic Soviet weapons-equipped armed forces.

India’s armed forces badly want access to the latest in high-tech weaponry – technologies that now belong to global defence contractors. Yet New Delhi also has a target of procuring 70 per cent of its defence equipment within India.

Estonia could hardly have picked a worse week for European authorities to consider its application to join the euro next January.

With the ink barely dry on a €500bn stabilisation package to prevent the Greek debt crisis spilling into the rest of the eurozone, bureaucrats in Brussels and Frankfurt would be forgiven for thinking now may not be the best time to invite another country into the club.

Bank of China and its fellow state-controlled Chinese financial institutions are used to being the piggy banks for pet political projects and China’s spectacular railroad expansion plan certainly falls into that category.

But just because investing in railways is seen by bankers as something of a political task doesn’t mean they are throwing their money away.

Arabtec, the largest listed contractor in the Gulf, may have made its name building many of Dubai’s towering ziggurats – including the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest tower – but the company is busting a lung trying to diversify its business away from the debt-straddled emirate.

Central and eastern European equity markets and currencies soared on Monday after weeks of uncertainty surrounding eurozone sovereign debt ended with the European Union and International Monetary Fund agreeing a €720bn financial aid package for countries in the bloc with fiscal problems to draw upon. “A very busy weekend with massive news from the EU front will bring emerging markets to a positive bias,” said Luis Costa of Citigroup.

  • China trade edges back into surplus
  • Emerging markets surge, currencies soar on Greek support
  • Buffett seeks controlling stake in Indian insurer
  • Philippines goes to the polls
  • Indonesian economy expands at fastest pace since 2008
  • China carbon tax likely, expert forecasts
  • India’s Infosys aims to grow fast in Europe
  • Qatar’s $2.2bn Harrods deal to lure more investors to UK retail
  • Chinese media outlets look set to make IPOs
  • Price Waterhouse faces regulatory action in India
  • SFC resists mainland audit plan
  • China’s Taobao, Yahoo Japan unveil strategic tie-up
  • Markets higher

Asian stock markets, which had fallen to near three-month lows last week on rising concerns over sovereign debt contagion from Greece, also rallied in response to the European Union’s move to intervene in eurozone government debt markets.

More reason for Beijing to wait and see on its exchange rate. The turmoil in global markets last week is likely to have already given Beijing plenty of pause for thought and now the modest trade surplus in April announced today also gives the Chinese government a stronger hand to resist pressure to appreciate.

The trade figures for last month did not, as some economists, predicted, repeat March’s surprise deficit, which had been the first in six years, but in the grand scheme of Chinese trade performance in recent years, the $1.7bn surplus was relatively small. It means, for instance, that over the last three months, China has recorded a trade surplus of only $2bn. Not exactly an obvious sign of a currency that is significantly undervalued.

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54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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