Daily Archives: May 20, 2010

BRL per USDLatin American markets fell sharply on Thursday amid a global sell-off of risky assets. Ongoing worries about Europe’s fiscal woes sent investors in search of perceived safe havens, such as the US dollar and US Treasuries, and away from emerging market stocks and currencies.

“Positioning is also playing a role with wholesale risk reduction more evident in the markets that are more liquid and crowded leaving Brazil and [the real] generally more vulnerable in any initial sell-off [of emerging markets]“, Flavia Cattan-Naslausky of RBS Securities wrote in a note to clients.

The word “overheating” dominates talk about Brazil’s economy these days. Inflation and growth forecasts are being revised upwards, the central bank is widely expected to continue raising interest rates and the government last week announced R$10bn in spending cuts.

But Carlos Maggioli, the head of sales and trading at Itaú BBA, says that even if Brazil’s economy grows as fast as 9 per cent, the threat of overheating won’t kick in until growth accelerates past India and China.

How do you promote a country as an irresistible tourist destination when it has a fearsome reputation for violence?

In recent years, the world has read countless articles about Mexico’s bloody drugs war complete with tortures, beheadings (123 so far this year alone) and dismembered body parts found in vats of acid.

As construction at Moskva City, Moscow’s planned financial centre, sits at a standstill, plans for “Russia’s Silicon Valley” are rapidly underway – and the Kremlin actually seems to be making progress.

Arkady Dvorkovich, the president’s chief economic aide, told reporters today that the government was in final negotiations for both Cisco and Nokia to participate in the project, a development that brings Russia that much closer to reversing its decades-long brain drain which saw Google’s Sergey Brin and other budding entrepreneurs leave the country in droves.

Swiftly rising waters sweeping though central Europe have killed as many as 10 people, but Poland’s increasingly robust economy looks like it shrug off the consequences of high water without too much problem.

Is India staring at the start of a bear market? Or are the current wobbles in the market simply the prelude to a return of the bull?

Morgan Stanley says in a report today that the Sensex is offering up some buying opportunities, while Lombard Research warns that the short-term could turn ‘nasty’. So here are the arguments.

Stocks in central and eastern Europe fell hard today, amid a general global flight from volatile emerging markets to safer havens. Investors were in risk-averse mood as fears spread that other European countries may follow Germany’s lead in tightening regulation. Much to the dismay of London traders, yesterday’s euro rally did not last into Thursday and the currency fell 0.5 per cent in early trading against the dollar and stayed down as investors fled risk.

George Papandreou, the hard-pressed Greek premier, is in Beirut for a meeting with Arab leaders today, hoping to tempt them into investing some petrodollars in Greece, in tourism, for example.

But, the word from the Gulf is that unless he intends to flog the Parthenon he will not be returning to Athens with a potful of cash.

Taiwan’s government minister today announced an impressive 13.27 per cent growth in its first-quarter GDP compared to a year ago, its highest growth rate in over three decades.

This announcement was accompanied by an assertion by Shih Su-mei that Taiwan’s economy has “fully recovered to pre-financial crisis” levels. Shih, who heads directorate-general of budget, accounting and statistics, also forecasted a 6.1 per cent growth for Taiwan’s economy this year.

While this is good news, some economists question whether the current pace of growth will be sustainable beyond the first half of the year.

India’s finance ministry and Rothschild Bank, the government’s advisers, are rubbing their hands with glee over the success of the country’s 34-day auction of 3G mobile licences.

They have two reasons to be cheerful.

Bangkok was quiet today after the authorities restored order following a night of rioting – sparked by the security forces’ operation on Wednesday to remove an anti-government protest camp from the city centre.

But the atmosphere was tense, amid uncertainty about the government’s next steps and visible evidence of the damage done to the fast-growing Thai economy.

* Dubai World agrees $23.5bn debt deal
* Taiwan’s economy expanded most in 30 years on exports
* North Korea threatens war over sanctions
* Bangkok counts cost of turmoil
* China’s jumbo jet first order by year end
* SABMiller annual earnings miss forecasts
* Petrobras may delay share sale should crisis deepen
* Asian sovereign wealth funds target US shale gas
* CNPC to buy stake in Shell’s Syria unit
* RBI governor says inflation is worrisome
* Sri Lanka keeps interest rates on hold
* India’s exports rise 36% in April
* Argentina debt swap hit by European crisis
* Venezuela arrests two brokers in currency probe
* Markets down globally

Yesterday’s appointment of Indonesia’s new finance minister, Agus Martowardojo, was well received both locally and internationally; Martowardojo, president director of state-owned Bank Mandiri, is an accomplished, well-known banker.

It was, however, greeted locally with one glaring caveat: his lack of experience in the political arena. This wouldn’t matter so much in a lot of countries, but in Indonesia, everything is political.

Set against unease on global exchanges over the eurozone’s impending crisis and continuing concerns that the Chinese government will take stronger measures to cool Chinese property markets, the MSCI index of Asia Pacific shares excluding Japan, dropped 0.5 per cent to a new three-month low. It has lost 6.6 per cent this week.

News of weaker-than-expected economic growth in Japan added to a cautious tone on Asian equities markets, already unsettled by geopolitical uncertainty as relations between North and South Korea remained troublesome.

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