beyondbrics

A major advance for Dilma Rousseff and a major upset for José Serra: this weekend’s Datafolha opinion poll, published in daily newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, shows the leading candidates in Brazil’s presidential election, to take place in October, in a dead heat.

Dilma (as she is known) gained seven points from the previous poll five weeks ago while Serra (as he is known) lost five points, leaving them both with the support of 37 per cent of voters polled. Marina Silva, the former environment minister, was unchanged with 12 per cent. Datafolha says its poll is accurate to within two percentage points.

Serra had led Datafolha’s polls since the current series began in December, when he had 40 per cent and Dilma, 26. As the governor of São Paulo, Brazil’s biggest and most developed state, and a former highly successful health minister, he had the advantage of a long-established and prominent national profile. Although Dilma has been President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s chief minister since 2005 and his chosen candidate since last year, she has lived in the shadow of Brazil’s hugely popular president and is less well known nationwide.

This is starting to change. Although official campaigning does not begin until July 6, Lula has been campaigning openly on Dilma’s behalf – and been fined four times by the electoral courts for doing so. This month, Lula and Dilma’s party, the leftwing PT, began running television advertisements supporting her campaign.

Its main 10 minute slot not only links Dilma to Lula to great advantage, featuring testimonials from Lula himself. It also links Serra – less justifiably – to Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula’s centrist predecessor. Fernando Henrique (as he is known, or sometimes FHC) is an unpopular figure among Brazil’s masses, even though he conquered inflation and laid the basis of Brazil’s current prosperity. His government was tainted at the end by electricity rationing (which features in the PT advertisement) and by privatisation – something that has been greatly beneficial to Brazilians but remains deeply unpopular. He was also associated with Brazil’s elites, in sharp contrast to Lula’s charismatic common touch.

Serra lost badly to Lula in 2002. He will have his work cut out now to claw back ground against his chosen successor.