Daily Archives: May 24, 2010

The timing is terrible for Argentina. Less than a week after it announced the take-up in the early phase of its debt swap was lower than had previously been expected ($8.5bn compared with expectations of more than $10bn), US judge Thomas Griesa has now embargoed $2.43bn in assets held by Argentina’s state Banco de la Nación in the US in response to class-action lawsuits.

Though the ruling in no way interferes with the swap offer, which runs until June 7, it would seem to suggest that class-action plaintiffs may not be rushing to take up the offer.

Brazilian real per US dollarBrazilian stocks and Latin American currencies followed US markets in a sell-off on Monday afternoon as investors continued to worry about the eurozone economy, but Mexican equities rose on upbeat housing data from the US.

Barclays Capital wrote in a note to clients today:

We believe that the majority of investors are still in a re-positioning period due to increased opportunity costs in the credit markets and the volatility in equities markets, which will not likely have a clear direction as long as the concerns about Greece’s sovereign debt issues and the possible impact on the economies in other European countries persist.

There is a clear divide in today’s global economy. While Spain and Italy announce new austerity packages, central banks in Brazil and China are puzzling over when to put the brakes on eye-watering economic expansion. On the day the UK unveils its first, timid round of budget cuts, India’s prime minster talks of 10 per cent growth rates.

Writing in Tuesday’s FT, World Bank President Bob Zoellick says that the developed world – faced by “riots, debts and the creeping fear of a Lost Decade”  – is currently only fighting half the battle.

Yahoo and Nokia are teaming up to improve their mobile internet services, with an eye on emerging economies, the FT’s Joseph Menn and Andrew Ward report.

Nokia phones will get Yahoo email and instant messaging, while Yahoo gains access to Nokia’s mapping technologies.

The arrangement helps Yahoo in its drive to reach more consumers in emerging economies, where tens of millions of people access the internet only from mobile phones.

This weekend, the people of St Petersburg heaved a huge sigh of relief. Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, had finally waded into a raging debate about plans by Gazprom, the state-controlled gas export monopoly, to build a 403 metre skyscraper above the baroque mansions of the city – and backed calls for a halt.

For a fast-growing country in the midst of a car-buying boom, Brazil has surprisingly few luxury cars prowling its streets.

Sure, you will find Bimmers, Audis and Land Rovers in the swankier parts of São Paulo – but nowhere near the number you see in Shanghai or even Moscow.

What’s more, in a market dominated by small, low-spec cars designed to pack in four or five passengers and do everything – school runs, shopping, commutes, and trips to the beach – the definition of luxury is decidedly lax.

There are lottery tickets flapping in the breeze at every street corner in Ankara, sold by old men and women who stand patiently by their tables in all weathers. Coupons for the football pools are on sale in kiosks, along with chocolate and cigarettes.

Although forbidden to strict Muslims, there is no stigma attached to gambling in secular Turkey. State attempts to clamp down on unauthorised betting & gaming websites such as the UK-listed Sportingbet appear aimed more at protecting the networks of small vendors – and the billions in state revenues they represent.

This weekend, the board of ICICI Bank, India’s largest private-sector lender, approved an all-share merger with the smaller Bank of Rajasthan. The “marriage” between the two banks will give ICICI an extra 463 branches, primarily in the north of India, boosting its present network by 25 per cent.

However, if ICICI shareholders approve the merger they will have to pay an expensive dowry for BoR’s hand – the deal comes with an 89 per cent premium. And with BoR repeatedly running into trouble with the regulators, there’s an added risk component too.

So the question investors should be asking themselves is: is BoR worth it?

Only Mukesh and Anil Ambani, India’s richest brothers, really know whether they have settled for good their long-running family feud. But investors today have given them the benefit of the doubt – and sent the Ambanis’ companies’ shares soaring.

If the peace deal announced at the weekend holds, the brothers could finally stop trying to trip each other up – and concentrated their formidable resources on their other rivals – both in India and around the world. Competitors had better watch out.

West European car makers came under great pressure in the global economic crisis to keep production in their west European home countries. But they have continued switching output to the low-cost factories of central Europe.

Industry figures show that, CEE (excluding Russia and Ukraine) increased its share of European vehicle production from 22.4 per cent to 24 per cent despite the threats and promises made by French president Nicolas Sarkozy and other west European leaders. The Czech Republic and Poland overtook Italy in terms of vehicle output – and now rank fifth and sixth in the European Union, just behind the UK.

UniCredit, the Italian bank, says in a report published last week that even if the economic crisis fades CEE’s advance in the European car industry will continue given its cost advantages.

Central and eastern European markets were relatively quet today in contrast to last week, with most gains and losses minimal. Positive trading carried on from Wall Street’s rally last Friday, but a global flight from volatile markets continued to be the general trend. The euro declined Monday, reversing gains made last week. After a brief rally in the morning, the euro was squeezed by news from Spain that the central bank rescued savings bank CajaSur. Regional currencies were mainly up against the dollar in the late afternoon.

“Almost any news is bad news for the euro,” Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co in New York told Reuters. “There’s some concern about whether this European bailout package is essentially a way to buy time for some of the European financial institutions to shore up their capital.”

When Terry McAuliffe, Bill and Hillary Clinton’s favourite fundraiser, first saw a China-made electric car on the streets of London, he decided he just had to take it for a spin. “I’m not a carjacker – can I drive your car around the block?” he asked the startled owner of the “mycar”, a 726kg electric vehicle designed by Hong Kong-based EuAuto Technology.

The owner relented and, after a short test drive, Mr McAuliffe decided his own electric car company, GreenTech Automotive, would track down and buyout the mycar’s manufacturer. Last week, while visiting Hong Kong as part of a delegation led by Gary Locke, US commerce secretary, GreenTech Automotive closed the deal for an undisclosed sum.

A newspaper quote from a mid-level government researcher, which was then promptly denied, would not usually attract too much attention, but in the case of Huang Hanquan it could actually represent something of a turning point in the Chinese economy.

Huang, who is a rural economy expert at the National Development and Reform Commission, the government’s main planning body, told the Beijing-based China Times over the weekend that the government was not likely to introduce a property tax for another three years.

African finance ministers and central bankers may still have plenty to grapple with, but as they arrive this week in Abidjan for the annual meeting of the African Development Bank, their books are looking better balanced than for many of their counterparts to the north.

Africa has weathered the global financial crisis better than expected.

Thanks largely to rising export volumes, and recovering commodity prices, the continent is emerging this year with projected GDP growth of 4 percent, up from 2.3 per cent in 2009 according to the annual outlook for the continent published today by the African Development Bank (AfDB).

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54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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