Daily Archives: May 26, 2010

After looking over Venezuela’s latest GDP figures published last night, surely even the most optimistic, partisan observer would have a hard time concluding that all is well with the OPEC country’s economy. A year-on-year contraction of 5.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 is a miserable performance indeed, particularly considering the rest of the region is now well into recovery mode.

But that didn’t stop the state-run news agency Agencia Bolivariana de Noticias from trumpeting with its top news story this morning that “social” GDP (related to social services) had risen by 2.8 per cent. Perhaps understandably they preferred to brush under the carpet such shocking statistics as a 27.9 per cent contraction in private investment – something that is perhaps less surprising when you consider that President Hugo Chávez barely lets a week go by without expropriating something.

Mexico's IPC indexBrazilian and Mexican markets saw a boost today from the global risk rally, but stocks pared some earlier gains and currencies fell after the FT reported that China is reviewing its eurozone bond holdings.

Emerging markets have seen volatile trading in recent days on worries over the eurozone debt crisis spreading to the banking system. But Flavia Cattan-Naslausky of RBS Securities wrote in a note today that Latin America’s greater reliance on local funding “should limit the negative impact of direct financial transmission from European banks given concerns with dollar funding pressures following Bank of Spain’s takeover of CajaSur and merger of four other banks.”

Lending in Brazil expanded again in April, according to credit figures released today by the central bank. And that rapid credit growth is benefiting domestic banks more than their foreign competitors, a report from Roberto Attuch and Fabio Zagatti of Barclays Capital notes:

the growth gap between domestic and foreign banks is getting wider, as foreign banks are still struggling to follow the pace of domestic players.

Domestic private banks’ loans grew 1.4% m/m in April (vs previous 3-month average of 1.0%), slightly above the 1.2% m/m increase posted by public banks (vs previous 3-month average of 0.9%), and twice the growth rate posted by foreign banks, of 0.6% m/m (in line with previous 3-month average).

Turkey’s recovery will be the fastest in the OECD, the Paris-based organisation forecast on Wednesday, predicting growth of 6.8 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent in 2011. But it will also have one of the highest unemployment rates – second only to Spain, the OECD predicts, with a jobless rate of 14.9 per cent in 2010 and 15.9 per in 2011.

That is the dilemma facing Turkish politicians: in international circles, they can boast of Turkey’s stable banks, relatively solid public finances and new fiscal rule. At home, voters care much more about rising prices and the lack of work.

The year-long trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Yukos oil tycoon and Russia’s best-known prisoner, has involved days of stultifying boredom as the prosecutors have read out aloud hundreds of pages of oil contracts.

But today the trial was both fascinating and disturbing. The prosecutors were questioning a witness for the defence, Tatyana Lysova, the editor-in-chief of Vedomosti, the Russian business daily, about what she knew about Yukos and how she went about her work. Lysova came out of the ordeal with flying colours. The Soviet-style prosectors did not.

Equities and currencies in central and east Europe recovered from Tuesday’s selling fury, with stock markets trading up and currencies rising against the euro as global markets continued their violent swings. Still, the region is weathering the eurozone storm better than west European countries with HSBC going as far as to say emerging Europe may be on more “solid footing” than Western markets.

In a note today, HSBC’s Murat Ulgen told investors that European investors’  loss of appetite for risk due to financial meltdown had had less impact on CEE  “thanks to Emerging Europe’s healthier fundamentals and fiscal balances.” He warned, however, that this might bring only “limited respite” should economic woes in developed Europe become more pronounced.

The eurozone concerns are unlikely to abate and markets may be headed for more volatility after chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, today raised concerns about eurozone bank funding.

India’s luxury real estate developer Lodha set a new record in the country’s coveted battle for land when it paid more than twice the asking price in an auction for a plot in the centre of Mumbai, India’s financial hub.

The Rs40.5bn ($850m) transaction is the biggest in India’s history for a plot of land and several analysts have dubbed the deal risky and too expensive. But, is it really a ‘ridiculous’ buy, as one Mumbai banker claimed? Perhaps not, when you look into the details.

Qatar may be about to head off on another high-profile shopping spree.

As the FT reported this morning, the Qatar Investment Authority has expressed interest in buying part of the US Treasury’s stake in Citi, which was bailed out in 2008 after it lost $50bn during the credit crunch.

If concluded, the deal would signal a return to a steady rhythm of overseas investments for the gas-rich Gulf state, which has made no secret of its desire to invest its abundant energy revenues into global assets as the government seeks to secure wealth for future generations with its roughly $75bn fund.

Santos is Latin America’s biggest port. It handles a quarter of Brazil’s foreign trade, but vast investment and renovation is needed to cope with the country’s bumper harvests. Jonathan Wheatley reports on the collosal challenge facing Brazilian farmers and manufacturers.

Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Kazakh president, and his family, have long been as interested in business as in power. So, it is curious why the family has chosen this moment to sell a controlling stake in a leading bank just when the crisis-battered financial sector may be on the road to recovery.

Nurbank, the eighth biggest bank, announced last week that Dariga Nazarbayeva, the president’s elder daughter, and her 26-year-old son Nurali Aliev, had been replaced as its major shareholders by an investor with no blood ties to the ruling clan.

However, Nurbank has hung on to its prestigious name: “Nur” is the first syllable of Nursultan Nazarbayev, a fitting tag for a bank that has long been in the first family’s hands.

400km north of Rio de Janeiro sits Açu Superport, a port and industrial complex one and a half times the size of Manhattan Island being built by Eike Batista, a billionaire entrepreneur and Brazil’s richest man.

Eike (as he is known) has come in for a certain amount of stick in recent years for having a lot of projects but little in the way of concrete results. Well, Açu is definitely there.

Everyone knows that China will eventually become the world’s largest market for luxury goods. But as it did with cars, China is redefining the word “eventually”: last year it surprised even its own car manufacturers by becoming the world’s largest auto market, several years ahead of expectation.

Now, with rich Chinese virtually ignoring the global financial crisis, China is marching up the league table of luxury markets too, with some measures now putting it in second place. According to KPMG, which released a survey today of Chinese consumers, 72 per cent say the downturn had “little or no impact” on their spending.

Japan is taking Latin America by storm. Well, at least when it comes to digital television standards.

According to Japan’s Sankei newspaper, Costa Rica has become the seventh country in the region to adopt the Asian country’s digital TV standards, following larger markets such as Brazil and Peru.

Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn, the world’s biggest electronics contract manufacturer, was in full crisis control mode Wednesday as Terry Guo, its chairman and founder, personally took charge of the effort to calm the furore over a string of suicides at its plants in Southern China.

Guo flew from Taipei to Shenzhen and, likely for the first time in Foxconn’s history, flung open the gates of his factories to an ‘open house’-style tour for hundreds of local and international media. It was a rare glimpse into the inner workings of a factory that produces millions of iPhones and other electronic gadgets each year.

“I have not slept well at all for the past month,” Guo told reporters, referring to the unusually high number of suicides that have taken place at Foxconn over the last few months.

*Pru investors warned off AIA takeover
*China pledges objectivity in Korean dispute
*Qatar eyes Treasury’s Citi stock
*ICICI private equity arm considers listing
*Foxconn chief to brief press on suicides
*China’s refining capacity to rise 50% in five years
*Tata Teleservices raises Rs45bn for 3G spectrum
*Peugeot in board-level shake-up
*GIC considers listing its property portfolio

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