Daily Archives: June 4, 2010

Henrique MeirellesBy Jonathan Wheatley

More on the debate about whether Brazil is overheating: Henrique Meirelles, central bank governor, weighed in today on the “No, it’s not” side with an assurance that inflation was under control, delivered on the sidelines of a G20 finance ministers and central bank meeting in Busan, South Korea.

He would say that, of course. The central bank has fielded a lot of criticism from market economists in recent months accusing it of getting behind the curve in the fight against inflation. The bank raised its policy interest rate on April 28, its first rise since its last easing cycle, which lasted from January to July last year.

Critics say even the bigger than usual three quarter point increase was too little and too late to deal with Brazil’s ever faster pace of growth.

Brazilian real per US dollarLatin American markets followed global assets in a sell-off on Friday as disappointing US jobs data and concerns over Hungary’s debt sparked a renewed concerns about the global economy.

US employers added 431,000 jobs in May, a figure that came in below estimates and which reflected the hiring of 411,000 temporary workers to complete the national census. The private sector added just 41,000 jobs.

“This is a timely reminder that, although the economic outlook is improving, the recovery is still pretty fragile”, said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.

Buses and cars drive along Corrientes Avenue in Buenos AiresA popular advertising campaign in Argentina sums up the appeal of owning a new car: “You may have got a zero for punctuality, but you’ve got a zero” it trumpets, playing on the allure here of owning a “zero-km”, as new cars are popularly called.

Argentine car production rose 40 per cent year-on-year in May and sales rose by nearly a third – another sign, perhaps, that people are hedging against inflation by investing in new wheels. And anyone who doubts that car purchases are growing only needs to try a rush-hour trip through Buenos Aires to experience the level of car saturation for themselves.

Exports have also surged due to strong demand from Brazil, but carmakers are warning that suppliers are operating at full capacity, potentially storing up trouble ahead if suppliers are unable to keep up with demand.

Can capital markets be put to use for the greater good?

Apparently so.

Gavi, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation, is tapping Mrs Watanabe and her undying penchant for high-yielding emerging market currencies for the sixth time to raise money that will be spent on immunising children in the poorest countries against diseases including enhanced polio, measles and tetanus.

Talks in China aimed at settling a dispute over soya oil imports from Argentina have failed to make progress, but Argentina has a powerful incentive to keep pushing for a quick solution: money.

Argentina had been expecting to export 2m to 2.5m tonnes of soya oil to China this year, worth some $1.7bn. Of that, $600m would go straight into government coffers because of high export tariffs.

By James Lamont in New Delhi

A possible emergency interest rate hike in India is back on the cards.

Data showing India had recorded 8.6 per cent economic growth in the quarter to the end of March has reignited expectations that the Reserve Bank of India might not wait for the July quarterly policy review to tighten monetary policy.

Weak US jobs data sparked selling across the region in afternoon trading, though most bourses pared losses towards the close. The retreat from the euro and general risk aversion following the non-farm payrolls release weighed on currencies across Europe.

And there was more pain for Hungarian markets today, as further negative comments from the government led to renewed selling in the forint and in equities. The Budapest market dropped 3.3 per cent, while the Hungarian currency lost 2.4 per cent to year lows against the euro, and 4 per cent against the dollar.

When Hungary’s new government was elected with a clear mandate – markets cheered. Now, just a few days on from prime minister Viktor Orban taking office, the party’s over, and investors are looking for the exit. Today the stock market fell 3.3 per cent, while the forint sank to year lows.

The market reaction is hardly a surprise after comments from the vice-president of the ruling Fidesz party suggesting that Hungary was going to be the next Greece, and from the prime minister’s office saying a default was possible. But things don’t look that bad, do they?

By Ajay Chibber, UN assistant secretary-general, United Nations Development Programme sssistant administrator and director for UNDP’s regional bureau for Asia and the Pacific

Mongolian herders and rural Indians – two seemingly disparate peoples – could bring valuable insights to next week’s World Economic Forum on East Asia. Both groups have suffered from multiple crises and both are climbing their way out through innovative schemes that offer a hand up instead of a hand-out.

While business and political leaders gather in Ho Chi Minh City to explore ways to sustain the region’s recovery, they should not lose sight of the importance of investing in people. Spending on social protection can have a catalytic impact and bring positive change to a very large number of people.

After captaining Italy at this month’s World Cup, the celebrated Azzurri centre-back Fabio Cannavaro will leave Juventus for Dubai.

The 36-year-old former Real Madrid football star described his move to Dubai’ Al Ahli as “his dream.”

Dubai and the Gulf have long lured players facing the twilight of their careers with multimillion-dollar bonuses for a couple of seasons running around humid, half-empty stadiums. Teams have had a particular love for skillful Brazilian and African players, such as George Weah, as well as European managers. Though Emiratis might also, like the English, complain that the (albeit mature) quality of foreign players has yet to rub off on local talent and the national side.

Let’s hear it for Li & Fung, the best-performing stock this year among 43 in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index. Its 10.4 per cent return since January 1st – against a slide for the benchmark of 9.5 per cent – is not just catch-up, either. Last year it ranked eighth on the leader board, with a 110 per cent return.

This is heady stuff for the world’s biggest supply chain specialist, established 104 years ago in China’s export hub of Guangzhou.

* India is benefiting from European troubles
* Life Healthcare raises $687 million in reduced IPO
* Indonesia and Philippines leave rates at record lows
* Agricultural Bank IPO weighs on Chinese markets
* Ukraine expects IMF mission next week
* Obama cancels trip to Indonesia and Australia
* Roach to take up role at Yale University
* Pru backs top team over failed Asian bid
* Ambitious Essar comes full circle
* Markets flat

Asian markets were mainly flat ahead of key US payroll data due later today, maintaining gains made later in the week. Stocks in Hong Kong fell slightly as shares in metals-related companies dragged on the Hang Seng. Metals prices have fallen on fears that Chinese government measures to cool economy will clip growth and demand for resources.

Shanghai shares pared earlier losses after the World Bank’s prediction that China would hit 8 to 9 per cent growth in 2010. The index closed up 0.04 per cent at 2,553.59.

Japan’s appetite for investing in emerging markets has caught up with Vietnam.

Last month, when Daiwa Securities launched an investment trust which allocates 40 per cent of its funds to Vietnamese stocks, demand was so strong that the securities group came close enough to reaching its Y27bn ($290m) target and had to stop accepting online orders in just two days.

Rumours about the imminent approval of the Saudi mortgage law continue to circulate, but have yet to materialise.

The Shura Council, the unelected consultative body, approved a draft nearly two years ago, but Saudi officials continue to refine details, with attention to compliance with Islamic law and averting excesses witnessed in Dubai or overseas.

In Saudi Arabia, real estate is driven mainly by domestic demand rather than speculative money. Less than 35 per cent of Saudis own their own homes and more than a million units will be needed in the coming five years.

Global equities macromap

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54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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