Daily Archives: June 11, 2010

Brazil's Bovespa indexLatin American markets extended their rally today to close higher on the week as Itaú Unibanco recommended buying Brazilian stocks and some encouraging macroeconomic data from China and the US allayed fears over European debt.

“As long as Latin America growth exceeds that of G10, we see the region cushioned from greater negative fallout from Europe and/or a strong [US dollar] which in the past has been consistently associated with weakness and crisis in Latin America”, wrote Flavia Cattan-Naslausky of RBS Securities.

It may be a stretch to make a link between football’s World Cup and the world of stock exchanges, but a glance at the FTSE Mondo Visione Exchanges Index hints at something worth highlighting.

The exchanges whose share prices have performed best in the last 12 months are – by coincidence – from the nations who kicked off the tournament on Friday: Mexico and South Africa.

In China, you can tell a lot about a factory by the company it keeps. The larger the investment, like a wholly-owned Honda transmission factory, the fewer the neighbours. The smaller the project, such as a Honda-linked car lock plant, the less imposing the location. And for the workers , size definitely matters.

Can Turkey live up to its own rhetoric of being an energy hub? According to Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister now advising the Nabucco consortium, it all hinges on the pipeline planned to bring Caspian gas to Europe.

“The only project with the capability of opening the southern corridor [from Europe to the Caspian] is Nabucco,” Mr Fischer told a conference in Istanbul on Thursday, arguing Turkey’s future “as a hub, with political power” depended on its completion.

But three projects are on the drawing board. Nabucco, an ambitious scheme to pipe up to 30bn cubic metres of gas to central Europe, is competing for supplies with two simpler schemes using Turkey’s existing infrastructure: the ITGI project to connect Azerbaijan to Greece and Italy, and the TAP project linking Albania to Italy.

Now that the west seems to fear to tread very far into Ukraine, Russia is more than happy to step into the breach. A state-controlled Russian bank appears to have granted cash-strapped Kiev a $2bn bridge loan to plug a budget deficit gap after delays in Ukraine’s bid for fresh financial support from the International Monetary Fund.

While details of the deal have yet to emerge, it seems that the Russian bank has agreed to shore up the public finances for six months. The short-term benefits to Kiev are obvious: but the long-term implications of the dramatic increase in Russian influence that has followed president Viktor Yanukovich’s election have yet to become clear.

Officials from Pakistan’s tax collection agency, the FBR (Federal Bureau of Revenue) will hold emergency meetings on Saturday with top managers of the country’s main stock market – the Karachi stock exchange (KSE), to help stem a slide in share prices.

It is an unusual move for the tax authorities to become involved in affairs of the stock market. But there is a good reason.

By Thomas Williams of mergermarket

GlaxoSmithKline’s US$253m cash acquisition of Laboratorios Phoenix, Argentina’s pharmaceutical business, is modest by the industry’s high standards but it is a not an insignificant show of confidence in the troubled South American country’s economy.

Announcing the deal on Thursday, GSK emerging markets president Abbas Hussain said it was “an important step forward in our strategy to grow our business in Latin America” which would bring GSK a plethora of local drug brands including cardiovascular, gastroenterology, metabolic and urology products.

India today had a new stock market favourite in the form of Standard Chartered Bank which saw its Indian Depositary Receipts (IDRs) make their debut and immediately leap to the top of the list of most active stocks.

But things are likely to settle down. The IDRs rose at the opening to a peak of Rs108 before falling back and closing at Rs103, disappointingly, just below the Rs104 offer price. The offering of $543m is only a small chunk of StanChart’s $50bn market capitalisation. So the serious action will continue to be in the London- and Hong Kong-listed shares.

The eurozone is in deep crisis, but when Slovaks head to the polls tomorrow for parliamentary elections the economy is not likely to be one of their top concerns.

Instead, the small country of 5m seems to be convulsed with revulsion at the casual corruption that has been a part of political and business life ever since Slovakia was formed in 1993, following the breakup of Czechoslovakia.

Martyn DaviesBy Martyn Davies of Frontier Advisory

The FIFA World Cup being held in South Africa that begins today evokes the international honeymoon that our country enjoyed after the first racially inclusive democratic elections that were held in April 1994.

Could we have leveraged the “honeymoon” better? Perhaps. Whilst South Africa has re-integrated into the global community of nations, it has not integrated domestically. Economic divisions between South Africans have never been starker.

If media reports are accurate, Indonesia’s 7th largest lender by assets, the privately held Panin Bank, has become the target of a three-way bidding war.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), Spain’s BBVA and Standard Chartered are all interested in acquiring a 46 per cent stake of Panin, held by the wealthy Gunawan family, Reuters reported Friday. The stake has been valued at $1.4 billion, but analysts believe the price could be driven higher by Indonesia’s attractive growth prospects and Panin’s solid balance sheet.

*Chinese inflation exceeds 3% target
*India: strong industrial production figures boost growth hopes
*Geithner warns after strong Chinese export growth
*Reports of Foxconn housing payment investigation
*StanChart softer on Mumbai debut
*Infotel, Aircel buy Indian wireless broadband permits
*Russia $12bn arms spree may benefit DCNS, Iveco
*AgBank to allocate a third of IPO to cornerstone investors
*Peru hikes rates amid strong growth forecasts
*Sanofi ordered to pay tax on Shantha deal
*Gazprom fights contract renegotiation
*JP Morgan faces South Korea probe
*Reliance Industries looking at US shale gas buy
*Markets higher

Another sign of the strength of the Indian economy’s performance this year comes today in the form of industrial production figures for April, which showed a 17.6 per cent year-on-year increase, bigger than the 13 per cent or so predicted by economists.

Even if the rate slows in the coming months because of base effects, the country remains on track to record Gross Domestic Product growth this year in excess of 8 per cent – welcome news for the slugish global economy. While the authorities are keeping a close eye open for signs of over-heating, the latest numbers are unlikely to push the central bank into any precipitous action. Markets responded calmly to the numbers, with the Sensex index closing 0.7 per cent higher.

Mainland Chinese markets stabilised, with shares in the biggest companies on the major indices in demand, a sign that investors were predicting current valuations were too suppressed, circulating 13-month lows.

But volumes remained thin and overall gains modest as sentiment remained cautious, even after strong gains on Wall Street and robust export data from China earlier in the week, as uncertainty about the strength of economies in Europe and the US lingered. There was deeper strength for exporters outside China.

Always entertaining to see US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner in front of the Senate finance committee, like a beleaguered nephew being harangued by a posse of irascible uncles. And the occasional aunt.

Charles Schumer, number 3 Democrat in the Senate, is threatening to bring his currency bill against China in the next two weeks, which would allow US companies to include estimates of currency undervaluation in antidumping and countervailing duty calculations. (Yesterday he also put out a press release alleging that China was exporting honey by relabelling it as the product of other countries, a practice he immortally dubbed “honey laundering”).

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54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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