Daily Archives: June 15, 2010

Investors in Marfrig, the Brazilian meat and vegetable processor, reacted badly to Monday night’s announcement that it would pay $1.26bn for 100 per cent of Keystone Foods of the US, global supplier of meat products to food service companies such as McDonald’s and Subway.

Shares in the Brazilian food group lost 2.85 per cent in São Paulo on Tuesday while the main equities index on the BM&FBovespa was up 1.4 per cent.

Has Marfrig overreached itself? The company has made 39 acquisitions over the past three years, more than half of them overseas, and now operates in 13 countries employing 74,000 people. Some analysts wondered whether Marfrig had the management expertise to absorb yet another major purchase and how much cash Keystone would deliver.

Latin American markets gained today as the global risk rally continued and commodities prices rose. Currencies gained against the dollar as the euro strengthened, boosting appetite for higher yielding assets.

“The [Brazilian] real is trading firmly. For the last three days, the dollar has been flirting with its 100-day moving average, just above BRL1.80.  Today’s break below that looks, well, for real”, wrote Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman. “The fundamental story looks fairly solid. The economy is enjoying robust growth, which by most accounts is probably above trend. It is one of the few countries to have recouped the output lost to the global crisis.”

People queue outside a Banco Federal branch in Caracas on June 14The start of another banking crisis? Perhaps – although not what you might think given that almost everything in Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela is politicised. Some of Banco Federal’s 284,000 depositors dashed on Tuesday to try to withdraw their savings from the mid-sized bank after the government stepped in late the day before, arguing that it was insolvent.

Banco Federal’s president, Nelson Mezerhane, meanwhile, high-tailed it to the US, and last night declared on TV channel Globovision that he would never return to Venezuela while Hugo Chávez was in power. Coincidence or not, Mr Mezerhane is also a major shareholder in Globovision, the last television station that remains stridently critical of Mr Chavez’s government.

Chile's striker Humberto Suazo during the FIFA World Cup South Africa-2010 qualifierChile make their World Cup debut tomorrow against Honduras with an unusual element to their strip: real copper, their country’s signature export, sewn into their football shirts.

The tournament is well-known as a marketer’s dream and if players are ambassadors for their country, the Chilean side will be promoting some of the lesser-known virtues of the red metal, of which their country is the world’s top producing nation.

Energy subsidies are the bane of Egyptian budgets, soaking up as much public funds as health and education put together – which is why the government is looking to cut back on energy subsidies in the near future, as Egypt’s finance minister told beyondbrics in an interview.

But you wouldn’t be able to tell by looking at the government’s budget, just adopted for the fiscal year to start in July, which outlines some $12bn still to be spent on supporting the prices of a range of fuels from natural gas for industrial and domestic consumption to the unleaded petrol guzzled up by the swanky SUVs now fashionable among the rich.

As expected, Romania’s ruling coalition today survived a no-confidence vote by the fairly narrow margin of 236 votes to 228 – allowing the government to go ahead with the radical austerity plan needed to secure an IMF-led rescue programme.

But confidence in Bucharest remains fragile. The laws, which involve cuts in public sector pay of 25 per cent and in pensions of 15 per cent, will be challenged in the Constitutional Court. And, even though the government has so far resisted the pressure from public protests against the plans, it faces a tough time implementing the programme over the coming months.

The public comments by Wen Jiabao, China’s Premier, on the country’s recent outbreak of labour unrest is significant, if for no other reason than the fact they were made and publicised at all. Wen’s decision to speak out on the issue is a sure sign that the labour unrest is a matter of deep concern at the highest levels of the communist party leadership.

Turkey is not likely to be the first emerging market that springs to mind when Japanese companies look to expand overseas.

Outside of mature markets in the west, Japanese interest tends to focus on neighbouring markets in Asia, followed by South American markets, such as Brazil.

But NKSJ, Japan’s second largest non-life insurance group by premium income, is splashing out about Y28bn to acquire Turkish insurer, Fiba Sigorta Anonim Sirketi, in its largest overseas acquisition to date.

It took magic to get JK Rowling onto Forbes list of the world’s richest self-made women. For Elena Baturina, owner of the Russian developer, Inteko, the circumstances, critics would say, were a little more earthly.

Baturina, a former factory worker, today stands as the third richest self-made woman in the world with a wealth of $2.9bn, according to Forbes. The founder of a small plastics company that specialised in crockery, Baturina turned the business into one of Moscow’s biggest development companies. She is also the capital’s first lady – and has been for the past 18 years.

Investor sentiment in emerging markets in central and eastern Europe slipped after Greek long-term debt was downgraded to “junk” by Moody’s. The prospect of Romania’s government facing a no-confidence vote over spending cuts also added to market uncertainty in the region.

Stocks in Moscow advanced 1.8 per cent to their highest in ten days taking the Micex index to 1,360.90, as Russian markets played catch up after a public holiday on Monday. The rouble was down 0.8 per cent against the euro to Rb34.498.

So Greece is officially sliding back into the ranks of emerging markets in the eyes of many investors.

Following nine years and two months at the top table after joining the euro, the Greeks have returned to emerging market status after Moody’s today became the second rating agency to downgrade them to junk status following Standard & Poor’s.

JP Morgan told the FT today that Greece was now eligible for the Embi+, the global emerging market sovereign debt benchmark index the the bank runs. To add insult to injury, Athens cannot actually join the Embi+ because it fails to meet the entry criteria.

Poland’s government can expect tough scrutiny of its efforts to cut the budget deficit from Marek Belka, the country’s new central bank governor.

In an interview with the FT today, Belka says: “I will remind the government to keep its promises.” For Belka, a deficit hawk and a former Polish prime minister and finance minister, even the 3 per cent budget deficit target of the Polish government and many other European countries is not ambitious enough.

By Paul Francis-Grey of mergermarket

Noble Group’s acquisition of a 51 per cent stake in PT Henrison Inti Persada of Indonesia marks the commodity company’s first foray into palm oil production and is a growing indication of the appeal of south-east Asia’s agriculturally-rich regions.

The Hong Kong-based firm intends to develop around 32,500 hectares of land for palm oil production in Sorong Regency, West Papua Province, Indonesia.

Investors know, of course, that emerging economies are growing faster than developed ones. But, when there is turmoil in financial markets, they like a little reassurance. So here it is in the form of a note today from Jonathan Anderson at UBS who says we can put an approximate figure to the sustainable rate at which the emerging economies will grow relative to the developed world.

According to Anderson, if we add four percentage points to the advanced GDP growth rate for the next five or so years, we will get a pretty good idea of the strength of emerging market performance. This is not an absolute decoupling but it is a relative one, says UBS.

The Indian government on Tuesday finally approved stake sales in the state-run Coal India and Hindustan Copper. The initial public offering of the two groups should help the ruling Congress party raise nearly $4bn to tackle its ballooning fiscal deficit.

But investors should be warned – the stark reality is that any hope that these sales will lead to broader  privatisation is simply wishful thinking.

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