All the planets are aligned for China to make its long-awaited move on its currency, at least on one view of events. After a few months of small trade surpluses and even one monthly deficit, May’s trade figures recorded a healthy rebound in exports. China’s May trade was in the black to the tune of $19.5bn, with exports rising 48.5 per cent year-on-year.

The figure is closely watched in Chinese policy circles. Exports don’t drive economic growth as much as many US Congressmen would have you believe. But trade is hugely important for creating jobs, which is the key to broader social stability. The Commerce Ministry, which has always battled moves to allow the currency to appreciate, will have its arguments weakened by the export sector’s return to rude health.