Daily Archives: June 21, 2010

Igor Sechin, Russia's deputy prime ministerAs Russia battles to rebrand itself as both an assertive international player and a reliable partner for the west, Igor Sechin, deputy prime minister, is well placed to exert his influence on Russia’s economic and political direction, the FT’s Charles Clover, David Gardner and Catherine Belton report.

Judged to be a consummate Kremlin player – a sort of Russian Richelieu – Mr Sechin is the third man in the informal triumvirate headed by President Dmitry Med­vedev and Mr Putin, former president and now prime minister. Once, he operated only behind the scenes. In Africa in the 1980s he is said to have worked as a military translator. Now, the man who embodied the rise of the siloviki – literally the “men of power” – is starting to emerge from the shadows.

As Russia seeks to shake off an economic crisis that wiped out layer after layer of the oil-fuelled gains of the Putin era, Mr Sechin – viewed with fear and awe for overseeing the state takeover of the strategic heights of the economy – is striking a new, surprisingly accommodating tone. The Kremlin, taken aback by how vulnerable Russia’s oil and gas-driven economy proved to be to the global financial crisis and recession, has started to change its tune.

Read more: Russia: The third man

Latin American markets gained today on hopes that China’s move to allow the renminbi to appreciate would boost the region’s commodity exports.

“The effect of this move for Latin American economies is, broadly speaking, positive”, wrote Tony Volpon, a Latim America strategist at Nomura. “First, from a direct impact, as most of the region relies strongly on commodity exports, with some economies like Brazil having China as its main export destination, a higher [yuan] should mean over time higher imports into China.”

Petrobras at last put some detail on its five-year strategic plan for 2010-2014 today, four months after it said it would spend between $200bn and $220bn as work gets underway on Brazil’s potentially enormous deepwater pre-salt fields.

In fact the amount promised is bigger than Petrobras’s previous estimate: $224bn, including big new commitments to exploration and production.

Will Brazil’s national oil company be able to fulfil its plans? They depend partly on the success of its ambitious capitalisation programme, under which it will raise an estimated $25bn from minority shareholders as early as next month. (That figure is a market estimate, it should be stressed, not Petrobras’s, which is rightly keeping quiet.)

“Yate”, “yate,” says the trader, listening intently as his eyes scan a list of figures clutched in his hand. “Aaah, nola, nola,” he suddenly remarks excitedly.

Argentina is currently engaged in a major debt swap and the top commodity it trades is soya, but this is an exchange of an entirely different kind.  Beside a playground in one of Buenos Aires’ parks, World Cup football stickers are frantically changing hands.

“Yate” is insiders’ jargon for “ya tengo” or “I’ve already got that one”. By contrast “nola” means “no la tengo” – I haven’t got it.

China’s decision to increase the flexibility of the renminbi boosted investor appetite in the export-heavy emerging markets of eastern and central Europe as global markets advanced on Monday.

Investor confidence received a boost after rating agency Fitch said a stable government in Slovakia might help to improve the country’s A+ rating, only a few days after similar comments on the possibility of upgrading Turkey’s BB+ rating.

China’s decision to break its currency peg with the US dollar – a peg reinstated in July 2008 as the global financial system began to unravel – has won Beijing predictable plaudits for its PR savvy.

China’s announcement defused the issue ahead of next weekend’s G-20 summit in Toronto. For all the fury coming out of a Congress underwhelmed about the move – Beijing did not shift its currency at all; it just simply agreed to make it more flexible – it is difficult to see the renminbi now becoming central to the US mid-term elections in November. The Obama administration has many bigger fish to fry with Beijing than to haggle endlessly over the Chinese currency.

Summing up the three-day St Petersburg International Economic Forum this weekend, president Dmitry Medvedev tritely noted how accurately the weather in St Petersburg reflected the mood at the annual conference. 2009: grey, dreary and flooded by torrential downpour. 2010: mostly sunny; not too hot, not too cold.

Inside at the sessions, however, you’d think it was a Californian +30.

By Thomas Williams of mergermarket

A little over a month ago South African steel stockist and bulk trader BSI’s chairman and founder Williams Battershill was strongly hinting to mergermarket of a deal to achieve “product and geographic diversification”. Today the company has succeeded in sealing the deal on an acquisition of steel merchant Staalbeer. Small though the deal may be, it reveals the tenor of an industry looking to consolidate amid a recession-driven fall in demand for steel.

If you suddenly dock someone’s pay by one quarter or slash their pension or benefits by 15 per cent, the chances of them repaying loans on time, or in full, begin to diminish.

This, in a nutshell, is what Moody’s Investors Service felt compelled to tell clients today in a note examining the impact of Romania’s latest austerity measures on local banks’ asset quality. It is not a warning of imminent disaster – but of an icerberg looming in the economic fog.

China’s modest appreciation of the renminbi has set markets all aflutter. Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe, Colombia has long been doing its bit for global rebalancing – its currency is the world’s best performing this year.

The slamdunk presidential victory of Juan Manuel Santos last night is likely to see the peso only continue to rise – a bullish signal for local equities, bonds and a reflection of continued foreign investment interest.

One of the big risks for the Chinese authorities in beginning to gently appreciate the currency is that they set up a one-way bet for investors who believe that the renminbi can only get stronger from now on. Large inflows of hot money could make it difficult to conduct monetary policy, officials fear, and might potentially aggravate inflation.

That explains why there has been much more talk since Saturday about volatility in renminbi trading and using a currency basket as a reference. When China abandoned its currency peg in 2005, it said the renminbi would trade against a currency basket of its main trading partners, but in reality it trailed the US dollar and was much less volatile than the 0.5 per cent daily trading bands allowed.

Indonesia’s potential for ‘strong sustained growth’ earned it a fresh ratings upgrade, in another sign of the giant emerging democracy’s success in weathering recent global financial turmoil.

Moody’s Investors Service on Monday cited stability, sound monetary policy, strong currency and growth potential as it lifted its outlook for debt and Indonesia’s currency, the rupiah, to positive from stable. The question everyone is now asking is, can the region’s largest economy keep it up?

Regional equities took a positive queue on Monday from the People’s Bank of China’s announcement at the weekend that it would let the renminbi appreciate against the dollar, with shares in companies that export to China gaining strongly. Broader market sentiment also got a boost on fading concerns that Chinese officials may resort to tightening measures to control inflation

Morning trading in currencies and equities got off to a confused start as the PBOC left the central parity rate – the rate around which the currency is allowed to trade – at the same rate as last Friday, however markets soon rallied and the Chinese yuan soared in forward trading.

* Renminbi surges in forward markets
* BP chief seeks to reassure Russia
* Chinese strikers end action at Toyota supplier
* Saudis hoard twice as much gold as previously thought
* JP Morgan pushes on with talks over Gávea
* Gazprom reduces gas supplies to Belarus after failure of debt talks
* Australia, China sign $8.8bn worth of deals
* Santos wins race to be Colombian president
* Poland heads for election run-off
* Indian company considering bid for Rio division
* Copper mining resumes in Zambia
* Aspiring Chinese officials must declare assets
* Moody’s raises Indonesian credit rating outlook to positive
* Markets: Up

China’s yuan soared on Monday to close at its highest level against the dollar since its July 2005 revaluation, as the central bank stepped aside and tolerated broad gains on the first trading day after it ditched the currency’s two-year peg to the dollar.

The central bank appeared to be allowing the market to find its feet by not intervening and letting the yuan post its biggest daily gain against the dollar since its revaluation in July 2005, staying true to its pledge on the weekend that it would allow greater currency flexibility.

The yuan closed at 6.7976 against the dollar on Monday, up 0.42 percent from Friday’s close of 6.8262. It hit a high of 6.7958 in intraday trade, an all-time high since the revaluation and rising as much as 0.47 percent from the central bank’s mid-point, nearing its limit of 0.5 percent.

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54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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