beyondbrics

More good news for Dilma Rousseff, pro-government presidential candidate in Brazil’s October elections: an opinion poll published this afternoon shows her leading the race for the first time.

The poll, commissioned by the national confederation of industry and carried out by Ibope, one of Brazil’s most respected polling organisations, gives Dilma 40 per cent of voting intentions against 35 per cent for José Serra of the centrist opposition PSDB and 9 per cent for Marina Silva of the Green party.

The previous poll in early June had Dilma and Serra (as they are known) neck and neck with 37 per cent each – the same as they scored in last month’s Datafolha survey, the other most-watched of Brazil’s many polls.

Both sets of polls have shown Dilma gradually eating away at what was once a formidable lead for Serra. When she drew level, it was after her ruling leftwing party, the PT, had begun television advertising on her behalf. Since then, Serra’s PSDB has also started advertising – apparently, to little effect.

Dilma’s advantage, of course, is that she is the chosen candidate of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the most popular president in Brazilian history (today’s Ibope poll gave his government 75 per cent support – a record). Lula has made it the priority of his last year in power to get her elected. On the latest showing, Serra will have his work cut out to stop that happening.

One telling detail: when voters were asked to name their candidate spontaneously (rather than from a list) Dilma got 22 per cent and Lula (not a candidate), 9 per cent. That makes 31 per cent, almost double Serra’s 16 per cent.