Daily Archives: June 28, 2010

Latin American markets fell today as commodities weighed on Brazilian producers and investors in Mexico were shaken by the killing of a Mexican politician.

“In contrast with previous episodes of violence it represents, in our view, the clearest attack on the political process since crime became a focal point for markets in early 2009″, wrote Jimena Zuniga, a Barclays Capital analyst.

“We think today’s episode does highlight the power attained by the drug cartels and suggests that a greater federal effort will be needed to secure institutional stability. Although we do not expect any resultant escalation of violence to produce a lasting repricing of Mexico’s risky assets, we think headline risk could keep them under pressure and, in particular, limit the peso’s upside potential.”

Currencies took a hit in Monday trading, with the Romanian leu reaching an all-time record low against the euro, and the Hungarian forint hovering close to an all-time low, fueling concern about whether CEE countries can emerge from financial crisis unscathed. In Romania a surprise constitutional court ruling presented yet another headache for the government, and demonstrated once again the challenges which CEE governments face in implementing tough but necessary austerity measures. Hungary’s currency flop against the Swiss franc spurred panic about Hungarian bank and mortgage loans, most of which are denominated in Swiss francs. CEE markets were also lower.

The forint’s precipitous fall against the Swiss Franc continued on Monday, adding to concerns about the 1.5m Hungarian borrowers whose foreign currency loans have become more difficult to repay.

In spite of recent interventions by the Swiss National Bank to prevent the franc appreciating, the forint last week fell to a 15-month low against the Swiss currency. On Monday it declined a further 1 per cent to approach an all time low.

In a country where the Swiss franc accounts for about 60 per cent of residential mortgages and 30 per cent of all bank loans, ordinary Hungarians have become painfully familiar with the slings and arrows of the forex markets.

But fear not, the crowd-pleasing new government has a plan!

After every post-World War II recession, the US has been pulled out of trouble by domestic demand. But this time it is different, says US-based investment manager Alliance Bernstein: exports to emerging markets are riding to America’s rescue.

The company says while it is early days in the recovery, the US could be seeing “a structural realignment” of its growth sources, thanks to big gains in American competitiveness and strong increases in emerging market imports.

Given the fragility of the pick-up from the 2008-9 recession in the US and most other developed countries, that is a big call to make. But Alliance Bernstein says that if current trends persist, the US is well on the way towards developing a more balanced and sustainable economy.

By Andrew Downie in São Paulo

Brazil likes to think of itself as the country of football and in World Cup years that is good for business. Sales of televisions are always higher, fridge sales soar, and steak and snack sale rates can climb to four times their average rates.

But while this is all great for business, there is one down side – in the hours when the seleção plays everything, from banking to production on the factory line, grinds to a halt.

By Kasper Viio of mergermarket

Lotte, the Japan-based conglomerate, has gained a strong foothold on the East European confectionery front through its acquisition of major Polish confectionery company, E. Wedel.

The deal, which will see Kraft Foods shed Cadbury’s Wedel business in Poland, follows the European Commission’s decision to approve Kraft Foods’ acquisition of Cadbury conditioned on this divesture and that of Kandia, Cadbury’s chocolate confectionery and soft-cake business in Romania. The latter is expected to be announced at a later date.

What’s your favourite investment tipple? Bonds? Equities? Maybe a cocktail of derivatives? Whatever your poison, the banking world is rushing to serve you with the latest emerging market investment products.

HSBC is hoping to entice more emerging market-hungry investors with its latest product launch, which it calls EMOS (Emerging Markets Outperformance Strategy).

The strategy offers investors not just long exposure to EM equities, but by shorting major markets (including the FTSE 100, the S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225), it also offers exposure to the relative (out)performance – hence the name.

As drivers in India feel the impact of the government’s landmark decision Friday to deregulate the oil market, car manufacturers have been left wondering how the move will impact their car sales.

While industry experts are keen to stress the decision to deregulate won’t leave a dent in profit margins of car manufacturers more generally, some say cheaper cars with greater fuel economy are set to make a tidy profit from the new move.

There’s an old Chinese saying that roughly translates to: “The boat will naturally straighten when it comes to the bridgehead.” It means problems will naturally resolve themselves when the crucial moment comes, and quite neatly describes Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou’s nearly two-year-long efforts to sign a trade pact with China that would normalise economic relations between the two former rivals.

The ‘bridgehead’ arrives Tuesday with the formal signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in the Chinese city of Chongqing, and despite fervent opposition from his political opponents over the past months, it seems Ma’s boat will sail unhindered past the bridge.

Liquidity in Asian markets has been drained by high expectations for the initial public offering of China’s fourth biggest bank, Agricultural Bank of China. Rumours continue to whirl as to the exact valuation of the lender in what was originally expected to be the world’s biggest ever IPO. Uncertainty surrounding the IPO contributed to mixed sentiment on Shanghai’s main market on Monday, which closed down 0.7 per cent at 2,535.278.

After the market close, AgBank priced the Shanghai portion of its initial public offering at 2.52 to 2.68 yuan ($0.371-$0.394), giving investors a better clue as to the size of the IPO. Last week the lender priced shares for its Hong Kong leg at HK$2.88 to HK$3.48. If shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai are priced at the top of range then the combined size of AgBank’s dual IPO would be around $20.2 bn, just short of ICBC’s record $22bn IPO in 2006. Monday’s pricing is expected to tighten liquidity in the markets for the next few days.

* DP World shelves London listing plans
* StanChart given boost by consumer business
* Reliance seals mobile masts deal
* Baosteel cuts expansion targets as China curbs capacity
* AgriBank IPO may raise $20bn on Shanghai price
* Air China to buy 20 Boeing planes for $1.4 bln
* Petr Necas named Czech PM as cabinet needed, president says
* Italian police raid Chinese criminal gangs
* India’s gasoline price increase may stoke inflation
* China currency reform ‘our own affair’
* Vietnam blackouts prompt calls for reform
* Telefónica-Portugal Telecom bid battle goes to the wire
* Markets mixed

It’s not just cars and televisions anymore: Japan is stepping up efforts to sell its nuclear power technology to foreign buyers, particularly in fast-growing Asia.

On Monday the Japanese foreign ministry announced the start of talks with India on a civil nuclear energy pact that would open the way for Japan’s three big nuclear-engineering groups – Toshiba, Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy – to bid on reactor-builiding contracts in the country.

Kuwait may be one of the richest countries in the world, but a large swathe of its financial sector is a basket case that would rival the worst of Wall Street.

Encouraged by cheap debt, petrodollars and an insatiable appetite for sometimes bizarre investments, Kuwait’s 100 investment companies swelled their assets to more than $50bn in 2007, but the sector imploded spectacularly after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

From the FT:

From elsewhere:

* Reliance seals mobile masts deal
* Sanlam plans to spend $197m on Africa, India expansion
* AgriBank IPO may raise $20bn on Shanghai price
* India’s gasoline price increase may stoke inflation
* China currency reform ‘our own affair’
* Air China to buy 20 Boeing planes for $1.4 bln
* Telefónica-Portugal Telecom bid battle goes to the wire.

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54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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