Daily Archives: June 29, 2010

A supporter of Rodolfo Torre touches his portrait during his funeral at the Polyforum in Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas state, MexicoThe killing this week of a leading candidate for the governorship of Tamaulipas state in northern Mexico by suspected drugs cartels has shocked the country’s political class as well as the wider population. Barely 24 hours have passed since Rodolfo Torre of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) was gunned down on his way to a campaign event, but the initial message would seem clear enough: nobody is safe anymore.

But what about business? Is Mexico’s drugs-related violence starting to affect investment decisions? After all, many analysts on Monday attributed the weakening of the local currency to the political violence.

From the outside, things do not look good. More than 22,000 people have died so far in the conflict against organised crime that Felipe Calderón, the centre-right president, launched in December 2006. In addition, the rate of drugs-related killings is going up. While in 2007, the first full year of the crackdown, there were 2,275 drug-related murders, this year has already seen more than 5,000, according to the “executionometer” published by Reforma, a national daily newspaper.

Brazil's Bovespa indexLatin American markets slumped on Tuesday, weighed by concerns over slowing Chinese growth and a plunge in US consumer confidence.

The Conference Board revised down its April leading indicator for the Chinese economy from a gain of 1.7 per cent to just 0.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the group’s US consumer confidence index tumbled by nearly 10 points, dropping from a revised 62.7 in May to 52.9 in June as fears about the job market sapped optimism. Investors rushed to safe havens, sending stocks and currencies across the region lower.

“The fear of softening in US economic confidence following weak US housing data and the FOMC downshift is where the downside really is”, wrote Flavia Cattan-Naslausky, a currency strategist with RBS Securities.

By Hal Weitzman in Chicago

Caterpillar machineryPeople in the US all too often think of Caterpillar as a conservative Midwest manufacturing company. Like many stereotypes, that perception has perhaps never been accurate. Caterpillar recognised that China was an important market more than three decades ago – a view with which many of its competitors have belatedly concurred.

As Tuesday’s announcements of expansion in its production in Brazil and China shows, the world’s biggest maker of earth-moving equipment is betting big on emerging markets growing their share of the pie even more in the next few years.

At the company’s recent shareholder meeting in Chicago, outgoing chief executive Jim Owens showed a fascinating chart indicating that while international sales accounted for one-third of sales in 2003, they now make up two-thirds of revenues.

By Andrew Downie in São Paulo

Flooding in northeast BrazilThe deaths of 54 people following heavy rains in northeastern Brazil are sadly predictable.

It is the umpteenth deadly disaster in the impoverished region and the third large-scale loss of life to flooding in the country since Christmas. Dozens died in flash floods and mudslides in the cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro and now the northeast states of Alagoas and Pernambuco have been hit.

Traders have looked to the currency over the past year-and-a-half as an easy place to make a buck, but Russia’s central bank and finance ministry-and the two Alexeis that govern them-are now saying they’ll have to look elsewhere.

Speaking on Tuesday at a conference organised by Renaissance Capital, Central Banker Alexei Ulyukayev told investors that the period of the strengthening rouble was now over.

“We’ve entered into a period of major volatility and unpredictability in the exchange rate,” he warned.

Central and eastern European markets were down on a lower outlook for China’s economy and European debt fears, as regional governments struggle to tighten policy and clip growing deficits. Public finances and political worries in both Hungary and Romania are likely to keep markets in central and eastern Europe under pressure in the near future.

The shining Swiss franc, meanwhile, is causing troubles in both Hungarian and Romanian households and raising concerns about the region’s financial stability. The rating agency Moody’s said on Tuesday the level of foreign denominated debts in both countries could have an impact on their credit ratings.

Now that Norilsk Nickel’s coffers are fast filling after the crisis, it hasn’t taken long for the uneasy truce between Vladimir Potanin and Oleg Deripaska to fall apart. The last time the two oligarchs fought for control of the world’s biggest nickel miner it was flush with cash as commodity prices soared. When they made peace in late 2008, prices had plummeted and both men’s 25 per cent stakes in the company were threatened by margin calls. As one investor puts it, “the world was about to end”.

This week’s shareholder vote for board seats at the annual general meeting revealed battle has resumed as the two main shareholders – and possibly some managers – fight for a bigger piece of Norilsk’s recovering readies ($2.65bn in net profit last year and counting).

In all this time, none of the big players seem to have paid much attention to the hapless minority shareholders even though they hold a chunky 38 per cent. The shares trade 51 per cent below their all-time high in 2008, a bone-crunching loss that might have driven even the most patient investor to protest. But, in fact, the oligarchs could legitimately argue their antics have done less damage to Norilsk’s market value than might have been expected. The RTS index has dropped 45 per cent over the same time. So the performance gap is only 6 percentage points. Not huge in comparison with the egos involved.

By John Paul Rathbone in London and Andrew Downie in São Paolo

While most investors might shy away from banks in the developed world, Banco do Brasil is readying itself for one of the biggest share issues of the year to fund further lending in Brazil’s fast-growing economy and to pay for acquisitions.

Government-controlled Banco do Brasil, Latin America’s biggest bank by assets, plans to raise as much as R$10.9bn ($6.1bn) by issuing 286m new shares – equivalent to 11 per cent of its current share capital. It follows last year’s $7.5bn initial public offering by Santander’s Brazilian subsidiary – the largest in 2009.

The issue will be a test of investor appetite in a world increasingly wary of taking on financial risk, even as Brazil’s calendar of share placements looks increasingly crowded. Petrobras, the national oil company, plans to raise an estimated $25bn in September.

By Sarah Syed of mergermarket

China’s largest brewery, China Resources Enterprise (CRE) has made headway in its acquisition strategy by purchasing Hong Kong coffee chain, Pacific Coffee Group. CRE has agreed to pay HK$326m to Chevalier Pacific for an 80 per cent interest in the coffee chain. Chevalier Pacific will maintain the other 20 per cent.

CRE plans to roll out Pacific Coffee shops in a number of its 2,900 retail stores which will help drive growth to surpass Starbucks – China’s largest coffee-shop operator. With substantial cash in hand and rising numbers of coffee drinkers on the mainland, CER’s ambitious goal looks achievable.

Google’s announcement today about its Chinese website may look purely symbolic, but to many observers in Beijing it feels like the start of the end-game.

On the face of it, little has changed. Before, Chinese users of google.cn were immediately re-directed to the company’s Hong Kong website – the nifty way the company worked out to maintain a presence in the China market without self-censoring its searches. Now they go to a landing page where they have a link to the Hong Kong site, so the only difference is one small click.

Agricultural Bank of China’s top executives were busy wooing the media in Hong Kong today ahead of its huge public offering – with dim sum, music and talk of elephants dancing.

The last of China’s four biggest banks to go public held a press conference in The Grand Ballroom of the Four Seasons, laying on an impressive spread of Chinese delicacies for the hundreds of reporters in attendance.

Nothing was allowed to knock the elaborate show off course, not even as sharp sell-off in Chinese equity markets , which will make the bank’s underwriters distinctly queasy, dim sum or no dim sum.

While manufacturers in China are struggling to meet demands for rising wages, the International Chamber of Commerce, one of the world’s largest business lobbies, said it could be a good thing from a protectionism standpoint.

Victor Fung, chairman of the ICC and head of Li & Fung, the world’s largest trade sourcing company, said higher salaries across China would lead to an increase in export prices, which would encourage US companies to purchase elsewhere eventually.

Sri Lanka can breathe a sigh of relief. After several months of delays, the International Monetary Fund Tuesday approved the third $400m tranche of a $2.5bn loan and agreed to extend the tenure of the programme.

The IMF had delayed disbursement of the tranche after Sri Lanka recorded a fiscal deficit of 9.9 per cent of gross domestic product in 2009, missing an earlier agreed target of 7 per cent.  Sri Lanka, it appears, has come in from the cold. But it may take the country some time to fully thaw as allegations of rights abuse remain unaddressed.

Benigno Aquino III, who is preparing to take his oath the next Philippine president tomorrow, is still single. But the 50-year old chain smoking sharp-shooter sounded like a worried groom when asked how he feels less than 24 hours before his momentous date with destiny. “Of course, a little anxious,” he said, adding that he is still working on his inaugural speech.

His appointments to the Cabinet, which Mr Aquino formally announced today, looked like a perfect example of the wedding custom for the bride to wear a combination of “something old, something new”.

It may not seem like boom times in western markets. But judging by the volume of mergers and acquisitions, the good times are back for bankers in India.

The $11bn merger of the tower business of India’s second largest mobile group, Reliance Communications, with independent cell mast company, GTL Infrastructure, is one of the largest domestic deals seen in India.

It brings the total of M&A transactions since January to $47. 1bn, according to data company Dealogic. Stripping out the acquisition of third generation mobile spectrum, which Dealogic has counted in the M&A data, the total falls to about $30.5bn.

Global equities macromap

Number of the day

54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

Featured posts

Myanmar

A businessman’s guide, British-style

Chart of the week

China’s trade surplus

beyondbrics

The emerging markets hub

About this blog Headlines email Blog guide
News and comment from more than 40 emerging economies, headed by Brazil, Russia, India and China.



'Like' our beyondbrics Facebook page, where we showcase a top story of the day
Sign up for our news headlines and markets snaphot service. We have two emails per day - London and New York headlines (sent at approx 6am and 12pm GMT).

To comment, please register for free with FT.com and read our policy on submitting comments.

There is an overall beyondbrics RSS feed, as well as feeds for all our countries, tags and authors. Learn more in our full RSS guide.

All posts are published in UK time.

Get in touch with us - your comments, advice and even complaints. Find out how to contact the team.

See the full list of FT blogs.

BB shortcuts

Regulars Series Archive
Chart of the week
Behind the numbers

Fund flows
Tracking money in and out of EM bonds
12 for 2012
Guest posts on key trends for the year ahead

Brics at 10
A decade of growth
The Diaspora Digest
EM diasporas, seen through their community media (Oct-Nov 2011)
Sick brics (Sep 2011)
Brics and mortar (Aug 2011)
Beyondbrics on the beach (Jul-Aug 2011)
China bubble? (June 2011)
Post-election Nigeria (June 2011)
Hey bric spender (Aug 2010)

Emerging markets data

Archive

« May Jul »June 2010
M T W T F S S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
282930  

What we are writing about