Daily Archives: July 1, 2010

Brazilians shop at the Saara market in Rio de JaneiroGlobal growth worries have many investors fretting over Brazil, fearful that China will ease up on buying steel, iron ore and other staple Brazilian exports. But the possible unraveling of Brazil’s commodity story may be a chance to tap into the country’s domestic growth, Credit Suisse analysts suggest.

“The change in China growth patterns [toward consumption] should cool the demand for commodities”, wrote Emerson Leite and other equity analysts in a note to clients. Factor in Brazilians’ growing incomes and increased access to credit, and slowing growth in US manufacturing, Credit Suisse says, and Brazil’s domestic picture looks even more attractive.

Banco do Brasil and Bovespa share pricesLatin American stocks pared losses to close higher in choppy trading on Thursday. Stocks sold off sharply in the morning as investors weighed gloomy data from China and the US, but a rally among Brazilian banks led the Bovespa back into positive territory by the close. Most currencies strengthened against the dollar, which fell 1.5 per cent on a trade-weighted basis, its second-biggest dip of the year.

“Risk off trading is creeping back, due to poor economic data worldwide”, wrote Marc Chandler, Audrey Childe-Freeman and Win Thin, currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman. “China is back in the spotlight amidst fears the mainland economy is slowing and so commodities have been hit as a result.”

Carlos SlimAnd the world’s richest individual is . . . Carlos Slim.

According to Sentidocomun, a respected website that carries economic and business news from Mexico, the country’s telecommunications magnate continues to occupy the top slot with a personal net worth of $59.3bn by the end of the second quarter of this year.

Sentidocomun’s calculation is interesting for several reasons. One is that the website calculates Mr Slim’s net worth every three months instead of annually in the case of Forbes.

Another is that the figure is consistently higher than that of Forbes. Eduardo García, founder of Sentidocomun, says that the difference almost certainly lies in the fact that his calculation includes the dividends Mr Slim receives from his shareholdings whereas Forbes’ figure does not.

Aeroflot, the Russian airline, is no stranger to bad PR. The carrier that earned the name “Scareoflot” in the Soviet era is still going strong in the scandal department.

Just last year the airline came under fire after it nearly allowed one of its pilots to fly from Moscow to New York after heavy drinking. Passengers staged a protest despite one flight attendant’s insistence that all the pilot had to was “press a button and the plane flies itself,” as one passenger reported.

While Aeroflot is also not known for its flights’ punctuality, it would like the world to know that the hours of delays this week are not its fault– it’s all down to the Moscow government.

By Andrew Downie in Sao Paulo

Fifa may not like to play referee, (however unbelievable the decisions), but the EU does.

In a story that lends itself to football references, it’s been a rough week for Spain-Portugal relations. First, the Spanish dump their neighbours out the World Cup. Yesterday, the Portuguese government exacted revenge by using its golden share to block Telefónica’s €7.15 bn offer to get Portugal Telecom out of Vivo, their Brazilian mobile phone joint venture.

The struggle between the two sides now looks set for a replay, or at least extra time. 

The emerging markets in central and eastern Europe started the second half of the year with further declines, as investors appetite vanished on disappointing news from China.

“A sharp sell-off over the past few days has capped a tough first half of the year for the region’s equity markets. The good news is that valuations now look cheap, pointing to a period of outperformance. The bad news is that this is unlikely to be for a while,” said Neil Shearing, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

Folks at Lombard Research don’t like China much. Earlier this month they put out a pretty gloomy report on the country’s long-term growth story. Now they’ve set their sights on another of the Brics – a term it also doesn’t like (it has always been a contradiction in terms, they say).

Today’s report from Maya Bhandari puts Lombard firmly in the Russian bear camp (which already includes RBS’ Tim Ash):

Notwithstanding some good recent data, notably on the industrial side, there are two chief risks to Russia’s shaky revival. The first is the dominance of oil in its economy, which is a major risk given our forecasts for oil prices, which differ wildly from the official $75/bbl. The second is the surprisingly nascent stage of domestic demand, with investment seriously lacking.

Is South Africa celebrating its success in organising the World Cup 2010 too early?

After all, there is still more than a week to go and trades unions acting for workers of Eskom, the state-owned energy company, are threatening to strike, potentially – it would seem – plunging the country into chaos next week ahead of semi-final and final matches.

In a rare public broadside on Beijing, Jeffrey Immelt, General Electric’s chief executive, accused the Chinese government of being increasingly hostile to foreign multinationals.

“I really worry about China,” Immelt told an audience of dozens of top Italian executives. “I am not sure that in the end they want any of us to win, or any of us to be successful.”

There is an obvious coals-to-Newcastle element to it: Accessorize, the British purveyor of cheap Chinese-made trinkets, has a grand plan to sell bits, bobs and bangles in the country that made them, opening branches in two of Shanghai’s most fashionable shopping centres.

Shanghai is by no means short of cheap trinkets at the moment: they are sold on every street corner, down every alley, even inside crowded subway stations. How can Accessorize possibly hope to compete? Certainly not on price: with a pocketful of change, the average Shanghai teenager could meet her accessory needs for a year.

By Rob Hartley of mergermarket

Kazakhgold’s agreement to take over its largest shareholder, Russia’s Polyus Gold, in a deal worth £6.795bn, will set the stage for the creation of the one of the world’s largest gold companies with a leading primary listing on the London Stock Exchange.

The liquidity and enhanced reputation provided by becoming a large London-listed company could pave the way for large-scale M&A deals and an increased capacity to secure all-important financing from a wider range of institutions, according to Moscow-based mining analysts.

China may have a long history in drinking tea but the country is becoming the latest battleground for the world’s coffee chains.

This week, China Resources Enterprises, a Beijing-backed conglomerate, pledged to turn Pacific Coffee, a Hong Kong-based chain, into China’s biggest, surpassing Starbucks and all the other coffee houses on the mainland.

In Hong Kong, Pacific Coffee, founded in 1992 by a US businessman in search of a cup of good coffee, is neck-and-neck with Starbucks. They have similar numbers of stores (Pacific Coffee’s 83 versus Starbucks’ 111), often in similar locations (it is not uncommon to find a Pacific Coffee and a Starbucks in the same mall). Prices are comparable, while decors are not very different. If the armchairs at Pacific Coffee were not red, one could easily be mistaken for a Starbucks.

As if the growing number of dedicated investment products weren’t enough to convince you that emerging markets were a big deal, Barclays has added another one to the list.

Taking a cue from investors rushing in to markets to buy debt as local currency appreciations boost the rewards, Barclays Capital has created a set of emerging market government bond indices denominated in local currencies.

The timing is right – borrowers of emerging market bonds, both sovereign and corporate, have drummed up a record of nearly $300bn this year, as the FT’s Jennifer Hughes reported on Monday.

* Manufacturing growth slows in Asia
* Chalco drops $2.4bn Australia plan
* Asia toys with introducing capital controls
* AgBank HK offer 10 times oversubscribed by institutions
* Polish PMI tops forecasts
* Vietnam growth hits 6.4 percent in second quarter
* Five east African nations to declare common market
* India’s gold imports may fall as price damps demand
* Usiminas sells $1.93bn mining stake to Sumitomo
* Google’s China operating license under review: Xinhua
* Foxconn’s shares dip on profit alert
* Lisbon blocks Telefónica’s Vivo bid
* Moody’s optimistic on Colombia fund
* IBM buys stake in China’s Bright Oceans
* Markets lower

The region got off to a weak third-quarter start Thursday as concern about slowing growth in Asia and Europe weighed on investor sentiment. A move by Moody’s to put Spain’s Aaa credit rating on review for downgrade late Wednesday perpetuated a growing dismal outlook about a global economic recovery in Asia.

China’s lower-than-expected manufacturing data released on Thursday helped to fuel fear about the dragon’s cooling economic growth. Markets were down and currencies were lower in day trading. Markets will look to data tomorrow from the US on June US payroll numbers. Markets in Hong Kong and Thailand were closed for holiday.

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