Daily Archives: July 6, 2010

Mexico is set to grow in the region of 4.5 per cent this year, according to most economists, but that impressive figure hides several sobering facts.

The first and most obvious one is that the figure is only good because last year’s was so bad. Mexico posted a contraction of 6.5 per cent in 2009, making it Latin America’s worst performer. Overall, and even if there is a strong rebound this year, Mexico’s economy will be smaller than it was at the end of 2008.

The second sobering fact came to the fore today when the national statistics agency reported that Mexico’s so-called coincident indicator fell 0.4 per cent in April compared with March. At the same time, the agency said that its leading indicator fell 0.6 per cent in April compared with the month before.

Chinatrust is not one to give up easily. The Taiwanese financial group, one of the island’s biggest, was undaunted last year when it failed to win AIG’s $2bn sale of Nan Shan, its Taiwanese life insurance unit. Instead it simply joined forces with China Strategic and Primus, the Hong Kong-based consortium that was the eventual winner.

On Monday, Chinatrust said it was still interested in Nan Shan despite its original agreement with China Strategic expiring last week while regulators held the deal in limbo. If China Strategic’s bid is later approved, Chinatrust said, the bank will try to renew its agreement with the consortium. If China Strategic’s bid is rejected, Chinatrust will bid for Nan Shan again when it comes back onto the block.

Brazil's Bovespa indexLatin American markets gained on Tuesday on rising commodities prices and optimism over the Chinese economy, but the rally eased in afternoon trading as doubts over the US recovery weighed on global markets.

Brazilian stocks got a further boost after analysts at BTG Pactual recommended Brazilian equities as “relatively cheap” and said the economy is “solid and growing fast”.

Boris Tadic, Serbia’s president, has made his official pick for central bank governor, nominating Dejan Soskic. Mr Soskic currently heads the central bank’s supervisory board and teaches economics at the University of Belgrade.

By Paulina Lichwa of mergermarket

Canadian TransAtlantic Petroleum’s decision to buy Turkish energy company Zorlu Enerji Elektrik Uretim’s Zorlu Petrogas and Amity Oil assets for US$96.5m demonstrates the region’s increasing importance as a major corridor for new oil and gas markets.

Turkey, which shares a border with Iraq, a potential new big source for oil and gas supply, is may also play host to the two major regional developments, namely the Nabucco pipeline, which would run from Asia to Europe, relieving it of Russian dependence, and also the proposed South Stream pipeline running from Russia through the Black Sea to Bulgaria.

Turkey’s monetary policy committee is feeling vindicated. For months it has argued a spike in inflation was temporary: June’s inflation data, released this week, confirmed consumer prices had not just stabilised, but even fell 0.56 per cent last month.

The figures, showing annual inflation eased to 9.1 per cent from a peak of 10.2 per cent in April, boosted the Turkish lira and bonds. Combined with last week’s GDP data that suggested the economic recovery was losing momentum, they have also led most economists to defer expectations of higher interest rates to next year.

By Andrew Downie in São Paulo

Here we go again. More problems for the proposed fast rail link between São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

The latest set back comes from the government’s own Court of Audit, which tears apart the official estimates, and states – amongst other things – that the geological studies necessary for pricing the project are insufficient and will have to be redone. It also said that some costs have been underestimated and others overestimated, making it impossible to say how much the project will cost in the end.

Agricultural Bank of China’s IPO will be the world’s biggest if it opts for a follow-on greenshoe placement, after it priced shares today.

Overall the IPO will raise a combined total of $19.2bn, short of ICBC’s record $21.9bn raised in 2006. However, ICBC’s record IPO included a follow-on greenshoe placement that topped up the original figure of $19.1bn. If AgBank triggers a greenshoe placement, it will raise $22.1bn, making it the largest IPO in history.

Central and eastern European markets recovered from Monday’s losses, after the euro firmed against dollar and sentiment on global markets improved.

Hungarian stocks advanced 2.3 per cent to 21,554.5 points as the IMF delegation arrived in Budapest.
The IMF and EU missions started the first round of talks with the newly elected Hungarian government, reviewing the $25.1bn international aid package, designed to prevent financial meltdown in 2008.

The Dickensian debtors laws of the United Arab Emirates – stipulating jail sentences for defaulters – have long been a matter of controversy in the country, but seems to have won unexpected backing by HSBC, one of the largest international lenders in the region.

In an interview with local magazine Arabian Business, HSBC Middle East’s UAE head Abdulfattah Sharaf, indicated that although the bank always strived to ensure that debtors did not end up in gaol, the harsh debtors laws were an effective deterrent to potential defaulters.

A 4am Monday morning pick-up for work sounds like most people’s worst nightmare. But this is what many Indian IT companies and call centre firms had to resort to yesterday to ensure their employees got to work on time because of the country-wide BJP and Left party led shutdown.

Determined to ensure business as usual for its foreign clients despite the strike against fuel deregulation, Tata Consultancy Services, India’s largest IT services exporter, arranged for buses to collect its employees.

Although the Congress party ruled capital was relatively untouched, other major business hubs such as Mumbai and Bangalore came to a complete standstill after facing political pressure from the combined opposition. Planes didn’t fly, trains didn’t run, roads were empty and businesses were forced to shut for the day.

By Simon Roughneen in Bangkok

Congratulations were the first order of the day after getting through to the Kasikorn Bank HQ this afternoon. President Dr Prasarn Trairatvorakul was earlier named the next governor of the Bank of Thailand during a Thai cabinet meeting, and with a number of key policy decisions looming on interest rates and forex, his thoughts on these matters will be keenly-awaited.

However, for now, he’s likely to keep his views to himself. According to his spokesperson, the new BoT governor cannot discuss his new role with the media until King Bhumibol Adulyadej formally approves the appointment. But some hints may be in the offing when Dr Prasarn speaks at a conference tomorrow morning, at the Queens Park Hotel in downtown Bangkok.

The eight year prison sentence given yesterday to the American geologist Xue Feng for spying has revived the controversy over China’s often vague secrets laws but it is also another blow to Shanghai’s ambitions to become an international financial centre.

Xue, a naturalized US citizen born in China, was convicted of spying and collecting state secrets by a court in Beijing which said that his actions had “endangered our country’s national security”. According to the verdict, he got access to documents about the geology of oil wells in China and a database with information about 30,000 oil and gas wells belonging to PetroChina, which was then sold to his employer, the consultancy IHS.

Positive trading in China’s main market index, the Shanghai composite, helped to lift regional markets today, as liquidity was restored to an oversold market ahead of AgBank’s dual Shanghai/Hong Kong initial public offering pricing later today. Property shares helped the index higher, despite a move yesterday by the China Banking Regulatory Commission to put an end to off-balance sheet lending through trust firms – a main source of credit for property developers. Not even a comment from Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff about a “collapse” in the property market could dampen spirits.

However, some in the market said today’s upswing for property issues could just be a technical rebound. “From a fundamental perspective, property developers are subject to further down sides”, said James Liu at Sinopac Securities.

*Monsoon covers entire India
*China eyes shake-up of bank holdings
*IMF raise Korea’s growth outlook to 5.75%
*BP reaches out to Middle Eastern investors
*AgBank IPO loses some of its edge
*Petropavlovsk said to plan $500m IPO of metals unit in Hong Kong
*India lightens touch on foreign currency transgressions
*Carrefour to sell fringe Asian stores
*India unhappy over Iran sanctions
*Japanese businesses bow to need for Chinese cash
*Nigerian central bank warns of inflation risk
*China number one for IPOs
*Nomura plans Malaysian sukuk
*Markets higher

Global equities macromap

Number of the day

54.46 Rupees to the dollar on Wednesday, an all-time low for India's currency.

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