Daily Archives: August 2, 2010

Brazil’s short-term rate forecast: increasingly cloudy

August 2, 2010 10:20 pm by Jonathan Wheatley
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More mixed signals on Brazilian inflation and growth: today’s weekly market survey from the central bank (as usual, dated Friday but published on Monday) shows inflation expectations rising slightly for the coming 12 months but falling slightly for the current calendar year. The outlook for 2011 remains unchanged.

Commenting on the 2011 outlook, Marcelo Carvalho at BNP Paribas wrote to clients:

Something has to give. Either the central bank’s new dovish stance is right, and inflation expectations should converge to 4.5%. Or else, the BCB is pausing too prematurely, in which case inflation expectations would start to drift higher at some point. The consensus still seems undecided which way it goes. Continue reading »

Posted in Brazil |

Americas markets wrap: Data and earnings boost risk appetite

August 2, 2010 9:51 pm by Shannon Bond
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Brazil's BovespaLatin American stocks surged on Monday as strong global data and upbeat European bank earnings lifted commodities prices and whetted risk appetite.

Brazil’s Bovespa gained for the 11th straight session, rising 1.48 per cent to 68,517.46, and paring its loss for the year to 0.1 per cent. Continue reading »

Posted in Global, LatAm |

Chile: macroeconomic success isn’t enough for the voters

August 2, 2010 7:04 pm by Jude Webber
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Voters can be very harsh indeed. According to a new poll, most Chileans reckon their economy is faring “neither well nor badly”, and a third of the population blames the government for poor economic management. The June/July survey by respected pollsters CEP reflects growing concerns over pay, poverty, housing, inflation and crime.

But the voters’ verdict bears little resemblance to Chile’s macroeconomic indicators. On Friday, the government of new president Sebastián Piñera announced a budget surplus in the first half, albeit a modest one at 0.8 per cent of GDP, thanks to increased revenues from copper, the country’s chief earner. And that’s just the latest good news. Continue reading »

Tags: Posted in Chile |

Why mobile phones can transform banking

August 2, 2010 6:00 pm by Alexandra Stevenson
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70 per cent of the BRIC population don’t have bank accounts. But what many of them – and an estimated billion people in all emerging markets – do have are mobile phones.

So investors are eyeing big growth in “mobile payments”, where people use their phones to perform transactions. Last week Actis bought out Egyptian chip-maker MSCC to get in on the action.

Now Arthur D Little is forecasting the market in mobile payments will be worth $60bn by 2015. It predicts that, within five years, the number of people using mobile banking will rise from 32m people today to 290m. That’s more than a million new users each week. Continue reading »

Tags: Posted in Global |

CEE markets wrap: bank earnings build momentum in regional bourses

August 2, 2010 4:58 pm by Henry Mance
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Central and eastern European markets were lifted on Monday, as earnings from HSBC and BNP Paribas, together with PMI German data, impressed investors. Hungary’s Budapest index was the top performer, rising nearly 4 per cent to 23,153.85, with OTP bank up 6 per cent.

Financial stocks also led the gains in Poland, where the WIG20 index rose 2.7 per cent to 2,541.56. The Polish zloty hit a two-month high against the euro, at 3.95, despite the country’s PMI inching down. Continue reading »

Posted in Europe, Global |

HSBC: eyes on the future, foot in the past?

August 2, 2010 3:37 pm by Josh Noble
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The market clearly liked HSBC’s earnings report today (despite being  a bit unremarkable). Shares were 5.4 per cent higher in late trading in London.

Profits are up 121 per cent on 2009, its Hong Kong business is booming, and bad debts are down.  Continue reading »

Posted in China, Global |

Kenneth Huang: from Guangdong to the Kop

August 2, 2010 1:49 pm by Justine Lau
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Rumours are running wild that Kenneth Huang, chairman of Hong Kong-based QSL Sports, is interested in buying Liverpool Football Club.

It is understood that Huang, backed by a sovereign wealth fund from the Far East, has indeed made an official offer to the Royal Bank of Scotland, which holds most of Liverpool’s £246m debts, to take over the club. Continue reading »

Posted in China |

New York headlines

August 2, 2010 11:52 am by beyondbrics
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* Geely completes purchase of Volvo for $1.5bn

* Chinese manufacturing slows but investors are unruffled

* Meanwhile, India’s manufacturing grows in July

* UAE to suspend BlackBerry services

* Sugar rallies as ships clog Brazil ports, Indian rains diminish

* Markets up Continue reading »

Posted in Global |

Asia markets wrap: 2-yr highs for Seoul, Malaysia

August 2, 2010 11:44 am by Henry Mance
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Global headlines told of disappointing PMI data – but Asian markets rose regardless, with equities and currencies performing well, as strong exports and bank profits outweighed softer data elsewhere.

South Korea’s Kospi and Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa both closed at their highest levels for two years. On the currencies markets, the Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar were trading at six-week and two-month highs respectively. Continue reading »

Posted in Asia, Global |

Advertising in China: Land of golden opportunity

August 2, 2010 10:21 am by beyondbrics
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By Tim Bradshaw

Whereas the rest of adland is still basking in the reflected glory of the World Cup, Jean-Francois Decaux, co-chief executive of JCDecaux, the world’s largest outdoor advertising group by sales, has been more excited by the Shanghai World Expo. He has focused on selling advertising space around transport hubs in China. Continue reading »

Posted in China |

Guest Post: Russia’s privatisation drive is not enough, but it’s a start

August 2, 2010 9:40 am by beyondbrics
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By Sergei Guriev of the New Economic School and Aleh Tsyvinski of Yale University and the New Economic School

The Russian government recently made two major announcements marking a dramatic shift in economic policy. In his speech in Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Medvedev stated that Russian modernisation should be led by private business, not by state-owned companies.

This change is very welcome and much needed as privatisation is an important component of any plan to reform the economy of Russia. Continue reading »

Tags: Posted in Russia |

EM podcast: Indian growth, Russia privatisation, and US-China relations

August 2, 2010 9:33 am by beyondbrics
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Click here to listen to this week’s podcast, including interviews with A Prasanna at ICICI Securities, and Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group.

Posted in Global |

Further reading

August 2, 2010 9:14 am by beyondbrics
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From the FT,

From elsewhere,

Posted in Global |

Asian PMIs: steady as she goes

August 2, 2010 9:06 am by Josh Noble
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Softer PMI data from across Asia failed to dent markets on Monday, with all major bourses in positive territory.

HSBC data showed that Chinese PMI had fallen to its lowest level in 16 months, but investors haven’t taken that as a cue to shun risk. Continue reading »

Posted in China |

London headlines

August 2, 2010 5:55 am by beyondbrics
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* Chinese data add to global recovery fears

* UAE to suspend BlackBerry services

* Draconian Indian telecoms rules attacked

* Lula pushes Petrobras debt risk to 18-month high

* Death toll from Pakistan floods passes 1,100

* Luxury brand makers scent more China profits

* Emaar MGF plans Rs15bn IPO

* Markets, mainly

Continue reading »

Posted in Global, Uncategorized |

Global equities macromap

Number of the day

46 Number of Chinese cities out of 70 that saw a house price fall in April, the worst number since the new tracking system began.

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