Americas markets wrap: Stocks gain on easing hopes amid thin trading
Latin American markets were up on optimism that central banks including the Federal Reserve will take more measures to stimulate the global economy. Trading was thin, however, ahead of a national holiday in Brazil on Tuesday. Chilean markets were closed. Continue reading »
Turkish delight over ambitious growth targets
Ali Babacan, Turkey’s economy minister, has reason to celebrate. He sent plates of baklava around a press conference on Monday to mark the birth of his third child. But he was also announcing a near-doubling in the official forecast for Turkey’s growth in 2010 – from 3.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent, one of the fastest recoveries among the world’s big economies. Continue reading »
Bulgaria’s PM watches his ratings slide
In contrast with its Balkan neighbours – Romania, Serbia and Greece – Bulgaria has survived two years of recession without having to seek an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund.
But if an opinion poll by Sofia-based Alpha Research is anything to go by, the governing right-of-centre GERB party (Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria) doesn’t get much political credit for this achievement. Continue reading »
CEE markets wrap: fiscal plan boost Turkish stocks
Turkey’s stock market was again emerging Europe’s best performer on Monday, rising nearly 3 per cent after the government raised growth forecasts and promised fiscal prudence. Russia’s Micex index returned to a five-month high, while the region’s other markets also strengthened, helped by high commodity prices and hopes for further US monetary stimulus. Continue reading »
Brazil’s election: born again
By Andrew Downie in São Paulo
Here’s an unexpected consequence of Dilma Rousseff’s failure to win Brazil’s election in the first round: the debate has turned religious.
While the rest of the world wonders about Brazil’s future economic policy, the second-round campaign is centred around abortion. Rousseff’s flip-flop on the issue has infuriated religious conservatives. Continue reading »
Czech Republic rides the German wave
The rising economic tide in Germany is lifting many central European boats – not least the Czech Republic, which is rebounding strongly in large measure thanks to exports to Germany.
While other European countries are having a hard time recovering from the global recession, the Czech economy continues to show a lot of strength. And the latest economic numbers suggest it should maintain its current pace and push forecasters to raise 2010 GDP growth estimates. Continue reading »
China: rapid growth, few jobs
Jobs are the trump card. US politicians say that Chinese exports are unfairly putting Americans out of work. Chinese leaders respond that, were the renminbi to rise, they would have their own employment emergency. “Many of our exporting companies would have to close down, migrant workers would have to return to their villages,” Wen Jiabao argued last week.
So it’s worth noting that China has been rather inefficient at creating domestic jobs. According to the following graph from Morgan Stanley, new employment in the country has lagged behind that of other Asian economies – even though Chinese GDP has grown far faster. Continue reading »
Pills or herbs for the currency dispute?
The global “currency war” is still going strong after the weekend IMF meeting ended in stalemate, with China pushing back hard against US pressure to appreciate more rapidly. Yet amid all the bickering, there was one interesting development on the Chinese side. Continue reading »
New York headlines
* CNOOC to pay $1.1bn for oilfield stake
* Sinochem approaches India’s NMDC for Potash bid
* Volvo confident of fending off Asian threat
* Subbarao says India may act if capital inflows disrupt economy
* Chinese diamond market shines bright Continue reading »
Asia markets wrap: Shanghai up; CNOOC leaps on US deal
Chinese stocks rose sharply on Monday, with the mainland catching up with a recent rally in emerging markets, and reflecting optimism over forthcoming earnings announcements.
In Hong Kong, equities hit a two-year high; oil company CNOOC continued to outperform (see chart), after agreeing to pay $1.1bn for a stake in a US field. CNOOC could now look for further expansion in Canada, Brazil and Africa, a Mirae Asset Securities analyst said. Continue reading »
By David Lubin, head of emerging markets economics, Citigroup
Are parts of Europe about to suffer a decade of falling income levels, chaotic economic policy and a lock-out from capital markets? The question isn’t absurd. The sovereign debt crisis that hit Latin America in 1982 famously produced a “lost decade” for the continent.
Around 1980 Latin America’s per capita GDP was almost 40 per cent of the average level in advanced economies; by 1990 it was 28 per cent. A key element of that crisis was the time it took for a coherent plan to emerge to help Latin countries repair their balance sheets and move towards recovery. Europe would do well to try and shorten that timescale. But can it? Continue reading »
Further reading: innovators welcome
From the FT:
From elsewhere:
IMF frets, markets move on
The failure of the International Monetary Fund meeting to produce concrete results has generated headlines around the globe – but little reaction in the markets. Anticipating deadlock in the US-China currency dispute, investors shrugged their shoulders and moved on, with Asian currencies and equities trading mixed on Monday.
But how long will it be before the warnings of economic instability voiced by leading policymakers has some impact on the investments surging into emerging markets? Continue reading »
London headlines
* Chinese and Saudis lead way in internet use
* Sinochem approaches India’s NMDC for Potash bid
* Volvo confident of fending off Asian threat
* Subbarao says India may act if capital inflows disrupt economy
* Chinese diamond market shines bright Continue reading »
Fund file: investing in China via Japan
Where can overseas investors look to understand China’s story? One place is Japan. It carries lessons on the effect of an ageing population on growth, and it has growing trade links with China too.
Both bulls and bears spy an opportunity. One outspoken hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, has worked out a way to go short on China via Japan. In contrast, Japanese pensions funds have bet on China in the hope that it will provide much-needed returns. Continue reading »
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