beyondbrics

China is already the world’s second-largest economy – within five years, it may be the world’s second-largest cinema market too, leaping above Japan and India in terms of box office receipts.

That would be a remarkable rise for China, which wasn’t even in the top ten cinema markets two years ago. A burst of new cinemas, plus an appetite for Hollywood blockbusters, are propelling growth.

According to the China Film Producers Association, Chinese box office receipts will reach up to Rmb40bn ($6bn) in 2015, putting the country second only to the US.

This year, China’s receipts are predicted to reach Rmb10bn ($1.5bn), well behind the forecast US figure of $10bn. But the two countries are seeing very different growth rates: Chinese receipts jumped by 86 per cent year-on-year in the first half, while the US’s increased by a mere 11 per cent.

China’s staggering growth comes mainly because its cinema audiences have been severely underserved. The country is building new movie theatres at a speed unmatched by any other market. The number of screens is forecast to almost triple from currently 4,500 to 12,000 at the end of 2015.

Foreign movies are frequently the best-grossing productions. Earlier this year, Avatar smashed China’s all-time box office record (previously held by Titanic), clocking up Rmb1.3bn ($195m) in ticket sales.

That’s in spite of the Chinese government’s efforts to restrict Hollywood’s dominance: no more than 20 foreign films a year to be screened in the country, and such films are often taken down early if they threaten to dramatically outperform pet domestic productions during national holidays.

Chinese consumers have other routes to foreign blockbusters: tens of millions watch movies on video-sharing sites or on pirated DVDs. But the Film Producers Association’s forecasts suggest that cinema is a long way from being bypassed.

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Consumer special, beyondbrics