beyondbrics

Which ideas have most shaped the world in 2010? Foreign Policy magazine has made its pitch before the year is out – publishing an annual list of the world’s top 100 thinkers. As a first draft of the history of thought, the list does an impressive job of reflecting the rise of emerging markets.

The Top 100′s strength is to cover a range of challenges facing poor countries, providing an idea for almost every ill. Its weakness is to downplay the factor that has done most to change perceptions of those same countries – economic lift-off.

The list nods to the importance of armed conflict and natural resources (Paul Collier, No. 29), good governance (Mo Ibrahim, No. 50), public health (Kamal Kashar, No. 84), and poverty (Sabina Alkire, No. 66).

It pays particular attention to Chinese politics – with dissident Liu Xiaobo (No. 16), muckraking journalist Hu Shuli (No. 82) and blogger Han Han (No. 86) all included, along with the founders of Google (No. 21), who are praised for “standing up to China’s bullying”.

Yet, otherwise, it’s foreign ministers and strategists who predominate. And their merits are questionable. When Brazil and Turkey – whose foreign ministers are both in the top 10 – sought to broker an international deal on Iran’s nuclear programme, they fell flat. Brazil’s Celso Amorim admitted as much, telling the FT: “We got our fingers burned.” Brazil was also unsuccessful at influencing Iran over a high-profile stoning.

Conversely, Brazil’s economic policy makers have played a more influential global role, notably in flagging the currency wars. Yet they miss out on the list – as do other emerging market policymakers, except for two Chinese picks. For his defence of the inflexible renminbi, China’s central banker, Zhou Xiaochuan, is ranked just one place below Barack Obama, while Chinese adviser Fan Gang is at number 60.

As for EM business picks, the list only includes Nandan Nilekani, co-founder of India’s Infosys, and Miles Morland and Rosa Whitaker, who helped draft US legislation to boost trade with Africa. There is much more to the emerging market growth than that: even if few can match the business glamour of Steve Jobs (No. 17), their approaches to opening up markets in the toughest circumstances deserve recognition. And if the McDonald’s theory of conflict prevention is to be believed, those who promote trade between emerging markets count de facto diplomats.

Perhaps Foreign Policy‘s best defence is that there’s no hurry. If the rise of emerging markets is truly inexorable, there’ll be plenty more years for Bric businessmen and policymakers to appear.

Below is an emerging market selection from the Top 100. The full list is available on the Foreign Policy website.

FOREIGN POLICY’s TOP 100 OF 2010
An emerging markets selection

4. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of People’s Bank, China – for holding the world’s economic fate in his hands

6. Celso Amorim, foreign minister, Brazil – for transforming Brazil into a global player

7. Ahmet Davutoglu, foreign minister, Turkey – for being the brains behind Turkey’s global reawakening

16. Liu Xiaobo, political prisoner, China – for bearing the flame of 1989 into a new generation

18. Shivshankar Menon, national security adviser, India – for dragging India out of its global nonalignment

29. Paul Collier, economist, Oxford University - for showing that natural resources don’t have to be a curse

32. Marina Silva, Brazil, with other green party leaders – for taking Green mainstream

36. Michelle Bachelet, Undersecretary-general, UN Women – for applying a stateswoman’s vision to gender equality

43. Nandan Nilekani, entreprenuer, India – for proving that India can be not only democratic, but efficient

44. Zheng Bijian, geostrategist, China – for trying to keep China’s rise peaceful

50. Mo Ibrahim, founder, Mo Ibrahim Foundation – for holding Africa to high standards

53. Miles Morland, investor, and Rosa Whitaker, consultant – for seeing Africa as the land of opportunity

54. Paul Romer, economist, Stanford University – for developing the world’s quickest shortcut to economic development

60. Fan Gang, director, National Economic Research Institute, China – for articulating how China can become more than the world’s factory floor

64. Mario Vargas Llosa, writer, Peru – for depicting the realities of tyranny, so as to end it

66. Sabina Alkire, economist, UK – for showing poverty is about more than money

82. Hu Shuli, editor, Century Weekly, China – for enlarging the space for debate in China

84. Kamal Kar, sanitation expert, India – for doing the world’s dirty work

86. Han Han, blogger and novelist, China – for channelling rising China’s restlessness

87. Mozah bint Nasser al-Missned, first lady, Qatar – for championing education in the Arab world

92. Kishore Mahbubani, Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy – for being the voice of a new Asian century