China fuel price hike: long lines ahead

In Beijing on Tuesday, long lines began to form around gas stations across the city. It was one of the first tangible signs of the government’s decision to raise fuel prices, which went into effect Tuesday at midnight.

Although the drivers waiting in line may have been worried about their pocket books, the increases are not all that large: gasoline now costs a maximum of 8,530 rmb per tonne (which is less than one dollar per litre), up from 8,220 rmb per tonnne. Diesel prices are now capped at 7,780 rmb per tonne, from 7,480.

The price hike is a belated bid by the government to bring fuel prices closer in line with global markets, as crude prices this year have risen. Officially, China adjusts fuel prices in step with the international price of crude. But analysts say that today’s increase is smaller than would have been dictated by global markets because of inflationary fears. An official from the National Reform and Development Commission, which governs prices, was careful to point out that the fuel price hike will have minimal impact on the CPI numbers.

The new prices will make life a bit easier for China’s refiners and distributors—who sometimes have to sell at a loss when prices get out of joint. But it’s unlikely to address another key issue that’s been plaguing Chinese drivers across the country: diesel shortage.

In Chongqing, truck drivers are lining up for three to four hours to fill their tanks with Diesel, according to coverage from state media CCTV. In central Henan province, the government has sternly ordered state-owned oil companies to provide diesel to gas stations, which local media compare to giving blood. The city of Chengdu has made special arrangement to secure diesel supplies, but private gas stations there are still not selling the fuel.

There are two reasons for the diesel drought. Demand for the fuel has soared in the last several months, as businesses and individuals use diesel-powered generators to supply themselves with electricity. Power cuts across the country have been widespread as part of the government push to reduce electricity consumption.

Since the retail price of diesel is set by the state, this sudden surge in demand wasn’t passed on to higher prices. Instead wholesalers, betting on future price hikes, started storing diesel instead of selling it. Meanwhile diesel’s wholesale price, which is less tightly controlled by the state, started to soar and soon exceeded the retail price—so many gas stations could only sell diesel at a loss.

Wednesday’s price hike will help alleviate the imbalance but is unlikely to fully resolve the problem. There is also a basic shortage of supply: China’s diesel imports have soared and the country has announced a ban on diesel exports next year, according to reports. Those truck drivers in Chongqing may have to wait in line a while longer.

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