Daily Archives: January 12, 2011

A post on Russia has brought to a conclusion the beyondbrics series on the 11 key questions for emerging markets investors in 2011.

Some of these questions may be answered fairly quickly. It already seems clear that the Bangladesh market may be over-valued as Ifty Islam suggested two weeks ago. Other issues may take decades to resolve – who can say for sure whether or not India can overtake China in economic growth?

Readers who want another look at some or all of our 11 for 2011 should click here now.

Chilean peso against US dollarInvestors kept piling into risky assets today, cheered by Portugal’s successful bond auction, sending oil and other commodities higher and boosting Latin American currencies against the dollar.

Mexico’s peso continued its strong run and is now up more than 4 per cent since its low in November, while Chile’s peso gained the most since early November as copper prices surged. Continue reading »

By Daniel Schweimler in Buenos Aires

WheatAmid growing worries over a global food price shock, today’s news from Argentina doesn’t bode well: farmers have said they’ll suspend the sale of all grains and oilseeds for a week from next Monday.

The announcement came after talks broke down between the four main farmers’ organisations and the government over how much wheat producers should be allowed to export. Continue reading »

IndiGo, an Indian low-cost airline, has just placed what Airbus is calling a record-breaking $15.6bn order to buy 180 of its planes. But where exactly is it going to fly them?

Aditya Ghosh, Indigo’s president, has told beyondbrics the answer. From August of this year Indian regulations will allow Indigo to offer its first international flights and he says he will use the planes to open routes to the Middle East and southeast Asia. Continue reading »

Central and eastern Europe stocks continued to rise on Wednesday, boosted by Portgual’s successful EU1.25bn debt auction. CEE currencies rose sharply against the dollar.

“Today’s auction went pretty good from a demand point of view and demonstrates that Portugal is able to finance itself when not talking about big amounts,” said Luca Cazzulani, a senior fixed-income strategist at UniCredit SpA. “The downside is the sales’ cost level that puts debt on a growth path that needs to be corrected in the future.” Continue reading »

Cape Town view
Groupon – the “collective buying” web company that last month turned down a takeover bid from Google worth up to $6bn – hit the headlines this week with three acquisitions of its own, in India, Israel and South Africa.

The first two countries, well known for their ICT strength, might seem like obvious targets for the hottest dotcom outfit of the moment. But the purchase of Cape Town-based Twangoo reflects the blossoming of IT talent in what is becoming known (at least to its more computer-friendly citizens) as Silicon Cape. Continue reading »

Cooperative bank, LjulbljanaSouth-east Europe could do with a dose of upbeat economic news but there is little to be found even in its most prosperous corner.

In Slovenia, the government’s forecasting institute on Wednesday said in its latest macroeconomic snapshot that bank lending had “practically come to a halt” . That’s bad news in a region which has long relied heavily on bank credit for financing the economy. Continue reading »

By Alexey Zabotkin of VTB Capital

The Russian stock market finished 2010 on a stronger note than many expected in the middle of the year. Having trailed the broader EM universe in the wake of a May-June sell-off, the benchmark indices managed to scale fresh post-2008 highs toward the end of the year. This put the MSCI Russia index’s gains for the year at about 15 per cent in US dollar terms, better than the three other Bric countries and a 13 per cent rise in the MSCI EM index.

But in spite of this outperformance, the Russian stock market remains at an abnormally wide discount to EM equities at large. It is not entirely impossible that Russia’s multiple will converge with MSCI EM in 2011 (it happened in the second half of 2006), but it is not fundamentally justified. Continue reading »

Thai Airways seems to be pulling out of its nosedive. It has sorted out its debt problems, affirmed plans to form a low-cost affiliate, and now it is looking to renew its fleet.

Piyasvasti Amranand, the president, announced on Wednesday that the airline is to take on 37 new aircraft in the next six years, expanding its fleet from 84 to 105. That is quite a change from early 2009, when it was looking to delay the delivery of new planes and struggling to meet debt obligations. Continue reading »

AIG’s long-awaited exit from Taiwan – part of efforts to repay US government bailout funds – seems finally to be coming to a conclusion.

The US insurer announced on Wednesday that it has agreed to sell Nan Shan, its Taiwanese unit, to a local consortium for $2.16bn. The participants in the Ruen Chen consortium, Ruentex conglomerate and Pou Chen shoemaker company, wish to diversify their business through the acquisition, reports the FT.

However, observers caution that the deal still requires regulatory approval. Continue reading »

RonaldhinoBy Andrew Downie in São Paulo

The Brazilian football club Flamengo has done well to capture the fading AC Milan star Ronaldinho. But without help from Brazil’s advertisers and sports marketers it would not have been remotely possible.

Although Brazilian football teams are in a better financial state they were a few years ago they can’t – on their own – afford to pay salaries like Ronaldinho’s, reported at R$900,000-1.4m (US$ 530,000-830,000) monthly. But with the Brazilian economy booming, the sponsors are ready to put up the money. Continue reading »

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and Robert Cookson in Hong Kong

Some of the small steps China is making towards internationalising its currency are so so small that they don’t get noticed until well after the event.

And so it is with a move by the Bank of China, the country’s fourth-largest lender by assets, to offer limited renminbi deposit services to personal banking customers at its London, New York, Canadian and Southeast Asian branches.

The “news” of the first such facility outside mainland China and Hong Kong made headlines on Wednesday. But in fact, as the bank told beyondbrics, the service was introduced nearly a year ago, in February 2010. A quiet move, it may have been, but it is playing its part in what could amount to a revolution in international finance if the Rmb eventually adopts what the Chinese authorities see as its rightful place on the global stage. Continue reading »

* AIG agrees $2.2bn Taiwan disposal

*Airbus lands record $16 bln IndiGo order

*India car sales to slow up in 2011

*Foot-and-Mouth disease roils Korean farms

*China denies link to Renault scandal Continue reading »

Indian stocks snapped their losing streak on Wednesday – the longest in a year – as higher oil and metal prices lifted equity markets across Asia. Asian currencies gained against the dollar.

“The outlook for Asian equities is positive amid signs of a recovery in the global economy and improving corporate earnings,” said Michiya Tomita of Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management. “But investors should be mindful of risks of accelerating inflation and prevailing sovereign-debt problems in Europe.” Continue reading »

Emerging market investors – generally – enjoyed a pretty clear run in 2010, with Indonesia the star performer. But since the start of the year, the Jakarta market has been in a foul mood – sinking all the way back to levels last seen in September last year.

Analysts – perhaps prompted in part by tetchy clients – are now trying to answer the key question – is this a blip, or a red flag? Continue reading »

Global equities macromap

Number of the day

12.4% Fall in Mail.Ru shares on Monday, on the back of its Facebook stake.

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