China to be biggest oil consumer by 2030
Just when you thought you’d heard all the impressive predictions about China in the coming years, BP comes out with another.
In a report released on Wednesday, the energy giant claims that China will be the largest source of oil consumption growth over the next 20 years – increasing consumption to 17.5m barrels per day – overtaking the US as the world’s biggest oil consumer in the process. Continue reading »
Peru: presidential campaign woes
Economic growth of 10 per cent is the kind of political gift few of the world’s ruling parties can dream of in 2011.
So why can’t Peru’s ruling American Popular Revolutionary Alliance find a presidential candidate?
The Apra, Peru’s most organised national political party, had chosen Mercedes “Meche” Aráoz (pictured), an independent, as their candidate in the April 10 poll. Continue reading »
Brazil’s rate dilemma
Ahead of Wednesday’s expected interest rate hike in Brazil, the FT’s Joe Leahy examines the dilemma facing Dilma Rousseff in her first term as president.
Brazil faces some of the highest real interest rates in the world – but a combination of loose fiscal policy and a rising budget deficit that depresses the savings rate has fueled high interest rates as Brazil tries to raise money for investment. Continue reading »
Americas markets wrap: Bovespa gains as Vale and Embraer surge
Latin American stocks followed global markets higher on Tuesday as fears over eurozone debt eased and commodities prices rose.
In Brazil, the Bovespa was lifted by surging shares of iron ore miner Vale and aircraft maker Embraer, while homebuilders gained on a boost in contracted sales. Continue reading »
Emerging markets: medical innovation
The M&A world is abuzz this week over Smith & Nephew, the UK-based maker of artificial hips and knees, and its prospects for takeover by one of several US groups. As the FT explains, “debates around tougher regulatory standards in the US and Europe alike are threatening higher costs both for approval and post-approval scrutiny. In this environment, companies are looking for opportunities to cut costs. A deal would present just such an opportunity.”
But a new report from PwC, the consultancy, suggests that deals are not the only way to cut costs of medical technology, particularly as momentum shifts away from established leaders, including the US and UK, and toward emerging markets, led by China, India and Brazil. Continue reading »
Deal of the day: Iress’s S Africa trade
By Paul Francis-Grey of mergermarket
With equity trading becoming ever more global and technologically-sophisticated, Iress Market Technology, an Australian market data and trading group, is moving to expand its South African presence with the R375m ($54.2m) acquisition of Peresys.
The Peresys purchase will enable Iress to build its South African business beyond its current presence in wealth management services and into trading systems linked to the growing Johannesburg Stock Exchange and several other markets. Continue reading »
By Ranjit Lall and Robin Wigglesworth
Whether or not it heralds a new era for the country, last week’s ousting of Tunisia’s president Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali has made investors in the Arab world decidedly skittish.
Is there a real risk of unrest breaking out elsewhere in the region? Renaissance Capital thinks so. The Russian investment bank argues that, largely for demographic reasons, countries in North Africa and the Middle East are more susceptible to wars and revolutions than others. Continue reading »
CEE markets wrap: financials boost markets
Markets across central and eastern Europe advanced on a pledge by Europe’s finance ministers to tighten a safety net for countries struggling pay their debt. In Poland and Hungary stock exchanges gained over 2 per cent, as financial shares advanced across the whole Europe.
Poland: belt tightening ahead?
Accord among analysts is a rare thing, but the overwhelming majority of market watchers expect the Polish central bank to hike interest rates tomorrow, raising its benchmark rate by a quarter point from its current historic low of 3.5 per cent.
There has been an obvious shift in tone at the rate-setting Monetary Policy Council, which is sounding much more hawkish about rising inflation and the recent weakness of the Polish zloty. Continue reading »
Turkey: unloved by foreign investors
Most emerging markets suffered a collapse in foreign direct investments a result of the financial crisis. But it is a surprise that Turkey is among the countries where flows have been slow to recover.
Despite a string of big privatisations, and economic growth estimated at between 7 and 8 per cent in 2010, central bank statistics show direct investment into Turkey was only $6.2bn in the 11 months to November, lower even than the $7.6bn registered in the same period of 2009.
Investors, it appears, do not yet agree with this week’s boast by prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in an article for Newsweek, that “Turkey is a market where foreign direct investment can get emerging market returns at a developed market risk.” Continue reading »
Great embarrassment at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The bank, set up to help east European countries develop from Communism to capitalism, disclosed on Tuesday that four officials assigned to the EBRD by the Russian government were being investigated for “alleged criminal activities” by the British and the Russian authorities.
The Russian economic ministry confirmed that the officials included Yelena Kotova, Russia’s EBRD director, who, the ministry said, had been dismissed amid a criminal probe into wrongdoing by her and the three other people.
China: people count
An early leak of what the eagerly-awaited 2010 Chinese national census will contain comes with figures showing a population of 23 million people for Shanghai – the Shanghai Daily reported on Tuesday.
That is 14 million permanent residents and a whopping 9 million migrants. The official census results will not be announced until later in the year. But these numbers are already generating calls for extra controls on internal migration. Continue reading »
CIC chooses maple leaf over union jack
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and Bernard Simon in Toronto
China Investment Corp, the country’s $330bn sovereign wealth fund, has decided to open its first overseas representative office in the leading global financial center of, wait for it…Toronto.
Despite the invitation extended in 2008 by then-Prime Minister Gordon Brown for CIC to open an office in London, the Chinese fund has chosen to open its first office outside mainland China and Hong Kong in the capital of Ontario. Continue reading »
Ivory Coast: collateral bond damage
The yield on Ivory Coast’s $2.3bn eurobond has hit a record high as a spokesman for the president – who is refusing to accept election defeat – said the country will make an interest payment only if creditors recognise him as the winner, reports Bloomberg.
Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest cocoa producer, is one of few African countries to have issued a dollar-denominated bond. For other governments keen to follow suit – led by Nigeria, possibly as early as this week – its troubles are giving investors an unwelcome reminder of political risk in “frontier” Africa. Continue reading »
Chinese builders: coming your way
It can still be a bit disturbing for western executives to discover that a Chinese contractor is building motorways in Poland, but China Overseas Engineering Group is not alone in landing business around the globe.
As a report published on Tuesday by Boston Consulting Group highlights, state-backed Chinese contracting groups have expanded their overseas orders at an annual rate of 29 per cent and captured market share at the expense of western, Japanese and South Korean rivals.
BCG sees the development as so important that it ranks it among the five “emerging trends that will shape commerce…for all companies that play on the world stage”. So you can’t say you weren’t told.
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