Daily Archives: January 31, 2011

Latin American stocks were mostly higher, while currencies firmed on Monday, backed by solid consumer spending data in the US. The only exception was Brazilian stocks, which fell after economists raised their forecasts for inflation rate, stoking fears of more aggressive action by the country’s central bank.

The benchmark Bovespa index slipped 0.18 per cent, falling for the fourth consecutive day.  The index is at its lowest level since September. Mexico’s IPC index rose 0.39 per cent, supported by a 0.62 per cent advance in copper miner and railroad operator Grupo Mexico. Chile’s IPSA edged up 0.02 per cent. Continue reading »

The political protests in Egypt have highlighted the latent risks of investing under autocrats.

James Mackintosh, investment editor, discusses the effect of Egypt’s turmoil on emerging markets and the continued underpricing of risks in those economies. 

The Lan-Tam merger is not on the rocks, but a Chilean anti-trust regulation is a bout of unexpected turbulence for the Latin American airline companies that will delay their tie-up by months.

The consumer group which brought the complaint that led to the probe, Conadecus, acknowledges that Lan already dominates the Chilean airline industry. But it says regulators should not simply allow concentration to intensify, especially on the key  Santiago-São Paulo route, which carries 1m passengers a year,  without taking a closer look and listening to all parties involved. Continue reading »

Central and eastern European stocks fell on Monday, as political protests in Egypt – which continued into their seventh day – caused airline and travel company shares to plummet. CEE currencies, however, rose sharply against the dollar.

“Apart from short-term disruptions to the crude oil and gas supply from the Middle East to European markets through the Suez canal, the biggest risk is widespread violence in the Middle East and North Africa region,” Renaissance Capital analysts wrote in a note to investors.

Continue reading »

So much for an uncompetitive exchange rate. South Africa recorded its first annual trade surplus in seven years in 2010, according to the South African Revenue Service, defying the much-maligned strengthening of the rand.

Exports soared 14.1 per cent compared to 2009, while imports rose 8.2 per cent, giving South Africa a modest 5bn rand ($0.7bn) surplus for the year. The figures are a timely reminder that – although important – currencies are not the only factor determining global trade patterns. Continue reading »

Lithuania will always be a minnow in global terms. Yet, with a population of 3.4m, it is easily the biggest of the three Baltic states.

So, when the country announced much stronger-than-expected quarterly economic data on Friday, it raised recovery hopes for the whole region. Continue reading »

NIS refinery at Pancevo, Serbia, where Russia's Gazprom is buying controlGazprom, the Russian state-controlled energy combine, has always denied political motives behind its fast-growing Balkan business expansion.

An offer by its oil division, Gazprom Neft, to buy up 19 per cent more of Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) for EUR 153.6m (US$ 209.2m) will hardly persuade Russo-phobes that it is a purely commercial enterprise. But, at least, NIS’s new majority owner appears serious about following through on investment pledges. Continue reading »

India’s Birla family is so influential that they are said to be the reason why Gandhi’s face today features on every Indian rupee note. On Monday, Birla Carbon, part of the Aditya Birla group, signed a deal that will widen the family’s sphere of influence to distant shores.

Birla Carbon has acquired Columbian Chemicals, the Atlanta-based chemicals firm, from One Equity Partners for $875m. The acquisition is said to make Birla Carbon the largest manufacturer of carbon black globally. Continue reading »

It was bound to happen at some point. Today, four weeks into the new year, Brent crude did what it hasn’t done since 2008: topped $100 a barrel.

This, from Reuters:

Brent crude oil futures surged above $100 a barrel for the first time in 28 months on Monday on concerns that anti-government protests in Egypt could create instability across the Middle East, possibly disrupting oil shipments through the Suez Canal.

The question now is how long it stays up here and what damage it could do to the global economic recovery.

The troubles that plagued India’s hosting of the Commonwealth Games are in danger of playing out again only months later at the Cricket World Cup in February.

The lack of preparedness caused severe embarrassment just days before the Commonwealth Games began in October. Now these concerns threaten in the future to sap confidence in India’s ambitions to hold global competitions like the Olympic Games or, even, the FIFA soccer world cup. Continue reading »

The Philippine economy rose by 7.1 per cent from a year earlier in 2010 after a surge of growth in the final quarter on the back of increased consumer confidence. The spurt of optimism coincided with the rise to office of a new and popular president, Benigno Aquino III, in July of this year. For the full-year, south-east Asia’s second most populous country grew by 7.3 per cent, the biggest gain in GDP since 1976.

The fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth numbers defied expectations that the pace of economic expansion will be slowing considerably due to the waning effects of election-related spending that fuelled record growth in the first half. Continue reading »

With Egypt’s stock exchange closed, investors are looking to other bourses in the Middle East to gauge the impact of Cairo’s protests on regional business. The news on Monday was encouraging: Persian Gulf markets rebounded sharply from last week’s falls, with Abu Dhabi stocks gaining the most in three months.

“Markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council are seeing a strong rebound as smart money is picking up names that are unaffected by the geopolitics of North Africa,” said Omair Ansari, equity strategist at Gulfmena Alternative Investments. “Earnings for the majority of the companies in the GCC are insulated to within the region, thus yesterday’s selloff was unjustified.” Continue reading »

Asian stocks continued to fall on Monday as political protests in Egypt continued for a seventh day and corporate earnings were worse than expected. Asian currencies fell sharply against the US dollar.

“Egypt does seem to have become a bit of a worry for markets,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy in Sydney at AMP Capital Investors. “Share markets were already vulnerable to bad news after recent strong gains, and alongside worries about tightening in Asia to combat inflation, the unrest in Egypt could prove to be a trigger for a correction.” Continue reading »

Russia’s central bank has declined to join the bandwagon of emerging market monetary policymakers raising interest rates.

To the surprise of some analysts, the bank on Monday left interest rates on hold and instead choose instead to battle inflation risks and head off inflows of hot money by increasing banks’ reserve requirements. Continue reading »

* Egypt debt worries rise on Moody’s downgrade

* India conditionally OKs $12 bln POSCO steel mill

* Cnooc strikes second US shale deal

* Opposition rejects new faces in Egyptian regime

* South Sudan votes 99 per cent to separate from north Continue reading »

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12.4% Fall in Mail.Ru shares on Monday, on the back of its Facebook stake.

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