Daily Archives: February 9, 2011

Brazil's president Dilma RouseffOne of the trickier aspects of Brazil’s budget is that it is never really fixed in stone at any point in time. Congress approves a budget towards the end of each year that the government is then free to adjust as it feels fit during the course of the next 12 months. Usually, the government sets aside part of the sums allocated for each area of spending, depending on whether it can afford the outlay or not as the year progresses.

The difference this year is that Brazil’s government has decided that rather than setting aside these amounts and possibly spending them later, it has cut some of them altogether. Continue reading »

Bovespa stock chartLatin American markets followed global shares lower on Wednesday as inflation worries sent investors out of risky assets and into perceived safe havens.

Brazil’s Bovespa sank 2.4 per cent, weighed by tumbling commodities prices, after the government announced R$50bn in budget cuts. Homebuilders and retailers fell as investors worried about inflation prospects, while iron ore miner Vale and steelmaker CSN tumbled on falling metals prices. Continue reading »

Bottles of Coca-Cola are displayed on the shelves of a store in BeijingInvestors looking for more evidence of Coca-Cola’s continuing expansion in China might have been taken aback by the company’s fourth-quarter results, released on Wednesday.

Instead of the double-digit volume sales growth that the company has set as a target in China – now its third-largest market after the US and Mexico – sales for 2010 rose just 6 per cent, and actually fell 3 per cent in the fourth quarter against the same period last year. Continue reading »

Tourists look at Dubai's Burj KhalifaNorth Africa’s political turmoil may send shivers down the spine of most Arab autocrats, but Dubai, the Gulf emirate brought low by its mountain of debt, can allow itself a quietly smug smile.

Not only is the ruling family, led by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, immensely popular, but Dubai could also benefit from Egypt and Tunisia’s upheaval, and the millions of tourists now put off the resorts of Tunis and Sharm el Sheikh. Continue reading »

Reliance Infrastructure stock chartIndia’s stock market seems to be going from bad to worse. Shares in members of Anil Ambani’s Reliance group tumbled as much as 19 per cent on Wednesday on what the company said were “baseless and motivated rumours” spread by rivals to “destabilise markets”.

Such grim performance is no longer so exceptional in a country that’s rapidly losing the sheen that dazzled so many investors in 2010. Bombay’s Sensex index is down 14 per cent so far this year and the pressures on the market, including fears about inflation and valuation levels, are intensifying. Continue reading »

The chance of buying a leading Polish mobile telephone operators is causing a stir among investors, with funds, telecoms companies and a local Polish billionaire all lining up to take a stab at acquiring Polkomtel.

The growing queue will cheer the vendors an unwieldy bunch includes Britain’s Vodafone and a slew of Polish-state controlled companies headed by refiner PKN Orlen, power generator PGE, copper miner KGHM and coal company Weglokos. Continue reading »

Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister and born-again fiscal hawk, gave investors a belated New Year’s gift on Wednesday: R$50bn – about 1.5 per cent of GDP – will be cut from the budget that began on January 1.

The move had been flagged in advance and was in line with expectations. As beyondbrics reported earlier today, interest rate futures have fallen over the past few days as investors have reluctantly begun to take the government’s intentions seriously. Continue reading »

Even by its own volatile standards, the South African rand’s decline this year has been unusual. The currency had fallen 8.1 per cent against the US dollar in 2011 at Wednesday’s close, making it the worst performer among major emerging market currencies.

What’s behind the rand’s slump? Most analysts agree on three factors: accelerating capital outflows from South Africa, domestic regulatory changes affecting institutional investors, and aggressive intervention in currency markets by the South African Reserve Bank. Continue reading »

Central and eastern European stocks fluctuated on Wednesday as investors chose to book profits amid fears of further measures by China’s authorities to tame inflation.

“We’ve had months of uninterrupted gains,” says Philipp Baertschi, chief strategist at Bank Sarasin in Zurich. “After that, we’re due for a break. In the short term, sentiment is overly optimistic. The market is due for a correction, but we see it as a buying opportunity.” Continue reading »

Russia’s efforts to raise funds on the stock market through a privatisation drive are off to a rotten start.

First, a run of non-state Russian IPOs in London has stumbled in the last week with one issue pulled and another cut back. And now, the government has been forced into a confusing volte-face over plans to sell a stake in state-controlled VTB bank this year. Continue reading »

The script is getting a bit dog-eared – a global automaker turns to India for cheap labour and demand from a growing middle-class market. But the story is not too old for for PSA Peugeot Citroën, which on Wednesday announced plans to begin operations in India, waxing lyrical about the growth potential.

But with the Indian market already crowded with local and global automakers, one would be forgiven for wondering if this really is a case of better late than never. Continue reading »

Vladimir Lisin, chairman of NLMK, goes shooting (2003 picture)Barely a year after Russia’s economy was in deep recession, the good times are back, at least for the oligarch class. The latest annual wealth rankings from Moscow-based Finans magazine suggest the country boasted a record 114 dollar billionaires at the end of last year.

That beats the previous record of 101 in the 2007 rankings, and is well up on only 77 in 2009. But Russia’s super-rich are still not quite as loaded as they were pre-crisis. The top ten in 2010 (including Vladimir Lisin in the picture) were together worth $182bn – up 30 per cent from $139bn in 2009, but still below 2007’s peak of $221bn. Continue reading »

Investors have been pretty sceptical about promises from Brazil’s new government of a  big fiscal adjustment. But recent swings in interest-rate futures suggest the mood has changed.

As our chart from Bloomberg shows (below the break), the January 2013 contract has risen sharply this year on expectations that the central bank would be forced make big hikes in its policy interest rate to deal with rising inflation. But since the end of last week the Jan 13 rate has fallen from a high of 12.99 to less than 12.70 today. Continue reading »

Indian engineer climbing a pillar on a section of the Bangalore Metro Rail Project that is under constructionIndia’s fast-growing “cram school industry” is expanding its horizons. Coaching companies are no longer limiting their ambitions to Indian educational establishments alone, but are now offering courses for US college admissions also.

FIIT-JEE, one of India’s largest coaching centres, told beyondbrics that the company is planning a $66.3m expansion to build a national chain of institutions that will offer preparation courses to a growing number of Indian students seeking admissions in US universities. Continue reading »

Cairo protest crowds on February 9When it comes to the economic impact of the Egyptian crisis, what do Saudi Arabia, India and the UK have in common?

They are all particularly dependent on exports to Egypt, taking the top three places among Egypt’s trade partners. Admittedly, the level of dependency isn’t great, at around 2-2.5 per cent of their GDPs. But the numbers show that even though Egypt is a poor country, its international commercial  links reach far and wide. Continue reading »

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