Daily Archives: February 21, 2011

Ingram Pinn illustration

Another week, another revolution. Muammer Gaddafi of Libya may soon become the third Arab president to be swept from power in little more than a month.

Until a few years ago, his toppling would have been greeted with delight in western capitals. But in recent years, the Libyan leader has been recast as a reformed sinner, an ally in the “war on terror” and a valued business partner. His current travails should be a cause of justified embarrassment – not least in London – since Britain has led the way in the attempted rehabilitation of Col Gaddafi. Continue reading »

map of Latin AmericaOn the heels of an unprecedented flurry of deals among the world’s leading exchanges, Spanish operator Bolsas y Mercados Españoles has expressed interest in a “significant” stake in a planned pan-Andean exchange.

The FT’s Jeremy Grant reports that BME chief financial officer Javier Hernani said the group sees opportunity in Latin America, particularly in Mila, the forthcoming tie-up between the Chilean, Colombian and Peruvian bourses that is set to start direct trading later this year. Continue reading »

Bovespa chartLatin American stocks fell Monday as ongoing tensions in the Middle East and North Africa weighed on sentiment, sending oil prices higher and curbing risk appetite.

In Brazil, the Bovespa shed 1.1 per cent as an increase in inflation forecasts outweighed a rally among oil producers. Homebuilders fell on worries over higher interest rates, with PDG Realty slumping 3.1 per cent, while airlines Tam and Gol gave up 3.1 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively as fears mounted over rising fuel costs. Oil company OGX gained 3.8 per cent, however,  as crude prices rose to their highest level since September 2008 as companies prepared to shut down their operations in Libya. Continue reading »

Central and eastern European stocks had mixed fortunes on Monday, as tensions in the Arab world continued to spook investors. CEE currencies fell sharply against the dollar.

“The political situation in the Middle East and North Africa is affecting markets, but not as much as in western Europe,” Bernd Maurer, economist at Raiffeisen Centrobank in Vienna, told beyondbrics. “This is because of increased optimism about the region’s growth prospects in 2011.” Continue reading »

Is Brazil heading for a credit crisis? Paul Marshall of Marshall Wace and Amit Rajpal of MW Global Financials Funds think so, as they argue in a column for the FT’s markets pages on Tuesday.

There are good reasons to worry about the fast pace of credit expansion in Brazil – it more than doubled between 2002 and the end of last year. And, especially worrying, there is little control over how much credit borrowers take on, as the authors argue. Continue reading »

The oil price hit its highest level in two-and-a-half years on Monday and foreign nationals scrambled to flee Libya as violence escalated in a country that has become the first big oil exporter to be gripped by the uprisings in the Arab world.

The unrest in Libya, the worlds twelfth largest oil exporter, shut down 6 per cent of oil output, according to Reuters, and drove the price of Brent Crude as high as $106 a barrel as events on the ground continued to move fast. Continue reading »

The $7.2bn tie-up between BP and India’s Reliance Industries is yet another example of Reliance head Mukesh Ambani’s big ambitions. He wants to build an upstream  oil giant and at a press conference on Monday he spoke optimistically about how joining forces with BP would boost India’s broader economic development.

But it comes at a delicate time for the country. India’s reputation as a user-friendly destination for foreign investment is under threat, partly because Cairn Energy’s separate $9.6bn deal to sell its share of some Indian oilfields to Vedanta has been stalled by a dispute over royalty payments. Continue reading »

The surge in commodity prices of recent years has boosted the earnings of commodity exporters, many of them located in emerging markets. But the flip side of commodity wealth is that it puts upward pressure on currencies, which can damage the competitiveness of manufactured exports.

This week’s beyondbrics chart (below the break) shows the relationship between commodity exports and currency appreciation. The countries further to the right and higher up the chart are those that have the greatest dependence on commodity exports (as a share of overall exports) and have experienced the most currency appreciation since the beginning of 2009. Continue reading »

Hungary’s central bank kept interest rates on hold at 6 per cent on Monday, ending a recent tightening cycle.

The decision was no surprise given January’s favourable inflation numbers and a recent contraction in Hungary’s CDS spreads (a measure of risk assessment). As with mastering the Hungarian language, however, the situation is far from straightforward. Continue reading »

Colonel Gaddafi’s regime in Libya is under pressure after security forces clashed with protestors. James Blitz, the FT’s diplomatic editor, says that this revolt will be met by extreme violence from the ruling regime and there are now big questions to be asked of the oil majors investing in the country.

The disappointment among some foreign observers was palpable when an online appeal to replicate the ‘Jasmine Revolution’ in China fell flat on Sunday.

But what some have failed to notice is that the call did produce a mirror image in the real world of the phenomenon at the heart of China’s fledgling online public sphere: crowds of onlookers. Continue reading »

By Frederic Neumann of HSBC

It’s easy to shrug off the current spike in inflation as temporary. Food prices, after all, tend to settle rather quickly once the weather calms and farmers take their cue. Energy costs, too, may begin to ease when the Middle East regains stability. So, why hike rates if the current price shock is bound to fade in a few, short months?

Because this isn’t your classic headline scare. In Asia, core prices are rising equally fast. Continue reading »

In one of the biggest foreign direct investments to date in India, BP is to pay $7.2bn to Reliance Industries in a deal that will give it a 30 per cent stake in 23 oil and gas blocks.

The blocks together cover approximately 270,000 sq km, the companies said in a statement on Monday, making the partnership “India’s largest private sector holder of exploration acreage”. BP and Reliance will also form a 50:50 joint venture for the sourcing and marketing of gas. Continue reading »

Shanghai and Mumbai defied losses elsewhere in Asia on Monday, as concerns about rising raw material costs and tensions in the Middle East and North Africa weighed on investors.

“The relief markets felt after Egypt’s President Mubarak resigned was shortlived as unrest continues in North Africa and the Middle East amid concern it might spread to other countries where democracy isn’t established,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors. “I think it’ll settle down without major negative global consequences, but the tail risk of an escalation is high enough to keep investors nervous.” Continue reading »

Protests in LibyaAs protests move from the east of Libya towards its capital Tripoli, triggering the decision by BP to suspend some of its operations in the country, markets are nervously watching the oil price.

According to David Fyfe, the International Energy Agency’s head of oil industry and markets division, around 50,000 barrels per day of crude production have been shut in because of the anti-Gaddafi protests and the regime’s response to them. Continue reading »

Global equities macromap

Number of the day

12.4% Fall in Mail.Ru shares on Monday, on the back of its Facebook stake.

beyondbrics

The emerging markets hub

About this blog Headlines email Blog guide
News and comment from more than 40 emerging economies, headed by Brazil, Russia, India and China.



'Like' our beyondbrics Facebook page, where we showcase a top story of the day
Sign up for our news headlines and markets snaphot service. We have two emails per day - London and New York headlines (sent at approx 6am and 12pm GMT).

To comment, please register for free with FT.com and read our policy on submitting comments.

There is an overall beyondbrics RSS feed, as well as feeds for all our countries, tags and authors. Learn more in our full RSS guide.

All posts are published in UK time.

Get in touch with us - your comments, advice and even complaints. Find out how to contact the team.

See the full list of FT blogs.

BB shortcuts

Regulars Series Archive
Chart of the week
Behind the numbers

Fund flows
Tracking money in and out of EM bonds
12 for 2012
Guest posts on key trends for the year ahead

Brics at 10
A decade of growth
The Diaspora Digest
EM diasporas, seen through their community media (Oct-Nov 2011)
Sick brics (Sep 2011)
Brics and mortar (Aug 2011)
Beyondbrics on the beach (Jul-Aug 2011)
China bubble? (June 2011)
Post-election Nigeria (June 2011)
Hey bric spender (Aug 2010)

Emerging markets data

Archive

« Jan Mar »February 2011
M T W T F S S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28  

What we are writing about