Venezuela: oil spike winner
He may be smarting now that his name no longer graces one of Libya’s top football stadiums (pictured), which instead now commemorates the “February martyrs”. And he may have got a lot of bad press for sticking up for a man who must be one of the least popular in the world right now.
But Hugo Chávez surely also sees the bright side of the crisis in Libya, with the recent spike in oil prices an extremely welcome development for his cash-strapped government. Continue reading »
Americas markets wrap: Oil pullback provides some relief
Latin American stocks were mixed in thin trading on Tuesday, with Mexican stocks seeing some support as oil prices pulled back from recent highs.
But low volumes show that “most investors are not going to take a position until the pattern is defined”, Fanuel Fuentes of Monex told Reuters. Continue reading »
Cocoa crisis builds in Ivory Coast
The world’s eyes may be on Libya, Col. Gaddafi’s battle to retain power and the rising oil price.
But further down the African coast, perched on the Gulf of Guinea, lies Ivory Coast, where Laurent Gbagbo is fighting to stay in office after losing elections last year, and the country is on the brink of civil war, forcing up the price of cocoa to near 32-year highs. Continue reading »
CEE markets wrap: mixed
Markets in central and eastern Europe were mixed on Tuesday, but Turkish stocks surged after oil prices eased, while stronger-than-expected industrial data helped to buoy equities. Continue reading »
Saudi Arabia: limited collateral damage?
Plucky investors have moved into the vacuum caused by a sell-off in regional markets in response to Arab unrest.
Markets are recovering from negative reaction triggered by the killing of protesters in Bahrain on February 14th. The prospect of a potential bailout of Bahrain and Oman by the Gulf Cooperation Council Marshall Plan has helped to lift sentiment. But one question looms: how will markets react to Saudi Arabia’s planned Day of Rage on March 11? Continue reading »
Indonesia: Garuda fall-out
Indonesia is paying a heavy price for the botched $524m IPO of national airline Garuda. Instead of floating up to 10 public sector companies on the stock market in 2011, Jakarta will now list just one, Pandu Djajanto, deputy minister for state enterprises, told the FT on Wednesday.
That’s a big setback for Indonesia and possibly for privatisation in Asia. With the bankers blaming Jakarta’s politicians for interfering, and political interference rife in the region, the fiasco is a lesson with implications far beyond the Indonesian archipelago. Continue reading »
South Africa’s confidence tricks
Car buyers are helping drive South Africa’s economy to recovery. Business confidence hit a three-year high of 55 in the first quarter, according to the RMB/BER business confidence index published on Tuesday.
It languished at 44 points in the fourth quarter of last year, below the 50 point mark that signals the difference between optimism and pessimism. With economic growth slowing and unemployment high, it will take more than one confidence index number to change investors’ views of South Africa. But it’s a positive signal. Continue reading »
Hungary reform: trust us
Investors welcomed the headline numbers in Hungary’s long-awaited fiscal reform package last week, but criticised its lack of detail. Be patient, says Zoltan Kovacs, minister of state for government communication dispatched to London to explain to investors what is going on: the details will come soon enough.
The reason there was not more meat on the bone, Kovacs told beyondbrics, was that – however it might have been billed – what came out last week was “not a package”. Rather it was a framework of broad measures with a series of fiscal targets. Exactly how some of those targets will be met remains to be thrashed out. Continue reading »
Chart of the week: $115 a barrel oil – who suffers and who doesn’t
By Valentina Romei and Stefan Wagstyl
With Brent oil around 115$ per barrel and expected to rise further in the light of the unrest in the Middle East, it is worth considering who will be squeezed hardest among the countries of the emerging world.
China and India are the two largest net oil importers in emerging markets. But both are big consumers of coal and rely less on oil than some of their rivals. Chile and Thailand depend far more on imported oil. As the chart below the fold shows, the level of oil dependency is relates to the energy mix which varies a lot between countries. As in so many sectors, policy matters. Continue reading »
Asia markets wrap: markets up
By Stephen Smith
Mainland Chinese stocks climbed to fresh four-month highs on Tuesday while Hong Kong equities were Asia’s best performers as financials were lifted by easing fears over Beijing’s tightening policies.
Reports that China’s regulators have decided to reverse previously announced rises in the reserve ratio requirements for banks led to gains for the sector while developers and carmakers also outperformed. Continue reading »
[Snap] Hero buys $853m Honda stake
After months of anticipation Honda has agreed to pay Rs. 38.4 billion($853 million) for 26 per cent of India’s Hero Honda Motors, ending a 26 year-old joint venture with the company.The low price tag – which comes at a discount of 50 per cent to Tuesday’s opening share price -should be a coup for India’s biggest motorbike maker, which has been patiently waiting to go it alone for some time now.
But investors seemed to think otherwise- shares in Hero Honda dropped 1.2 per cent after the news and closed down 0.8 per cent, at 1,518.15.
New York headlines
*US commerce secretary tapped as China envoy
*Hero to buy out Honda stake in Indian JV for $851 million
* Gaddafi battles to retake oil terminal
* Opec members rush to raise oil output
* Reliance Capital eyes Middle East expansion Continue reading »
Russia: flower power
Women’s Day in Russia is one of the most important holidays in the country, and the usual smell of aftershave is ceding to the heady scent of flowers in Moscow as men lavish bouquets on their wives and colleagues and just about anyone else from the fairer sex they know. March 8th is the day florists wait for all year as a chance to reap the profits from Russia’s traditional taste for flowers.
“Just one 8th of March feeds a florist for a whole year,” said Andrey, a flower arranger at Lilly and Lilly, a flower shop in central Moscow. Continue reading »
Further reading: is the West a laundromat for autocrats?
Tuesday’s top picks from the beyondbrics team: how China is making small steps towards democracy through property rights, why history shows democracy isn’t right for China (a state media view), what it means when Dr Doom says oil to hit $150 barrel a day, and why the Arab Spring is looking like the Western Winter. Continue reading »
End of the one-child policy coming?
China’s toymakers could be a lot busier in future, if media reports are correct. China’s one-child policy is apparently under discussion at the country’s family planning departments, and could be rolled back in urban areas some time in the next five years to allow a second child.
A government official quoted in the People’s Daily Online says that China is becoming rich enough to prevent a population boom should the policy come to an end. Continue reading »
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