beyondbrics

Japan’s nuclear crisis has left many countries reviewing their plans to build reactors. Emerging countries generally depend less on nuclear power than developed ones – but their capacity has often been rising more quickly, with big plans for more.

Our chart this week (after the break) shows the role of nuclear power in selected emerging markets. Countries to the right of the chart are more dependent on nuclear energy; those nearer the top have been expanding their nuclear capacity more quickly.

Nuclear power accounts for about 14 per cent of electricity generation worldwide; total nuclear generation has hardly changed since the start of the decade. Production has been stable or declining in most developed countries, offset by growth in EMs.

European industrialized countries as a whole depend on nuclear power for about a quarter of electricity generation. Output has marginally declined since the start of the decade. In Asia, Africa and Latin America nuclear power supplies no more than 4 per cent of electricity generation but in some areas – particularly Latin America and China – its share has been rising rapidly.

China gets very little electricity from nuclear reactors but a glance at the chart explains why it has featured so large in stories about the Japanese disaster. China’s nuclear capacity has expanded at an annual average rate of 16 per cent over the past decade: the amount generated in 2008 was about four times that generated at the start of the decade.

Despite China’s recent announcement that it had suspended approval for nuclear plants across the country – putting the brakes on a development programme that accounts for almost 40 per cent of the world’s planned reactors – the country currently has more than 25 reactors under construction with more due to start construction soon.

China relies largely on coal for its electricity but coal is causing rising pollution and logistical problems. Most reserves are in the north; it takes almost half of China’s rail capacity to transport coal to the rest of the country. In contrast, most of China’s reactors are on the coast, close to areas of fast development where energy demand is particularly strong.

Unlike China, Brazil is highly dependent on clean hydro energy. It appears as the second fastest-growing country as in 2000 its second reactor started operating and doubled its nuclear capacity. Since 2001 Brazilian nuclear power generation has decreased slightly – though it will increase again when its third reactor, under construction, comes on line.

The decline in nuclear power generation in India and Pakistan relates to a dip in 2008, but both countries are planning to expand their nuclear output. Both countries are outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty due to their weapons programmes. This means they are largely excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials and have developed indigenous nuclear industries. In Pakistan a new reactor should start commercial operation this year and the country has plans for four Chinese reactors in the future.

South Korea is the Asian country with the largest dependence on nuclear power. It also exports nuclear technology exporter and recently won a $20 billion contract to supply four nuclear rectors to the UAE. In January 2010 the government said it aimed to export 80 nuclear reactors worth $400 billion by 2030 and become the world’s third largest nuclear supplier behind the USA and France or Russia.

Lithuania is the misleading exception among emerging countries – it had the second highest level of nuclear dependency in the world in 2008, trailing only France. Its nuclear history dates to the late 1970s when it built reactors largely to export power to its neighbours. However, Lithuania does not currently produce any nuclear power at all as its last reactors closed at the end of 2009. A new nuclear plant to be built in collaboration with Lativa, Estonia and Poland has been proposed but not yet approved by the government.

Other eastern European countries have significant dependence on nuclear power but have hardly increased their nuclear production over the past decade. The exception is Romania, where the two reactors provide almost 20 per cent of the country’s electricity. The second reactor started functioning in 2007 and production almost doubled in 2008 compared to 2006. Romania has advanced plans to complete two more reactors.