beyondbrics

By Lucien Chauvin in Lima

Peru’s financial markets continue to fluctuate wildly as different polls show the June 5 run-off race for president tightening.

The Lima Stock Market’s general index was up 5.48 per cent on May 6, largely as a result of polls showing a much smaller gap between left-wing Ollanta Humala and populist Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori. The bourse was down 0.94 per cent on Monday, with one new poll by Ipsos Apoyo, released the previous night, giving the congresswoman a two-point lead, 41 to 39 per cent, while others had Mr Humala with a slight lead.

Initial polls after the April 10 elections, which Mr Humala won with nearly 32 per cent of the vote in a field of 11 candidates, showed him a commanding lead. The stock market and Peru’s currency, the nuevo sol, have been moving to the rhythm of the polls since then.

Analysts expect the markets to continue to move as the candidates fight over a pool of approximately 20 per cent of the voters who are still undecided or say they will spoil their ballots.

Fernando Tuesta, who heads a polling institute at Peru’s Catholic University, said he expects the race to become increasingly aggressive as candidates battle vote for vote. A weekend poll by Mr Tuesta’s institute had Mr Humala up by just 0.2 per cent of 40.7 to 40.5 per cent. He said that this is likely to be one of the most polarising elections since Peru returned to democracy in 1980. Ms Fujimori leads among the wealthier classes and women, while Mr Humala leads among the poor and men. She is ahead in urban areas, while he has a lock on the rural vote.

The Fujimori campaign is making a major push to capture the female vote. Mr Humala is looking to make inroads in the vote-rich northern coastal departments. He lost that region to Ms Fujimori in April, the same way he did to current President Alan Garcia when they competed in a run-off in 2006.

The battleground is likely to be Lima, the capital, where approximately one-third of the electorate lives. Ms Fujimori is far ahead in Lima, with leads fluctuating between 10 and 20 points, depending on the survey. One of the main reasons Mr Humala lost in 2006 was of the lopsided vote in Lima, where he received only 38 per cent of the votes.

One trend that has changed in recent days has been the negative numbers of each candidate. Ms Fujimori has seen her rejection rate drop slightly, with 34 per cent of voters saying would never cast a ballot for her. Mr Humala’s number rose slightly to 38 per cent.