beyondbrics

They should have done their homework. That’s the view of Russian president Dmitry Medvedev on the collapse of the BP-Rosneft deal. And it’s hard to fault his conclusion, delivered at a mega press conference on Wednesday that was broadcast live.

Although he did not say so, his criticisms were aimed at both BP and Rosneft – and deputy prime minister Igor Sechin, the former Rosneft chairman, who was forced to leave the company earlier this year on Medvedev’s orders.  And the confident-looking president even allowed himself a little swipe at Russia’s most powerful man, prime minister Vladimir Putin.

The president implied that BP and Rosneft should have anticipated opposition from the Russian oligarchs who are BP’s partners in its current Russian venture, TNK-BP. “Those who prepared the deal should have paid closer attention to the nuances of the shareholder agreement,” Medvedev said.

And the government should have kept a closer eye on things. “It would have been necessary to conduct more careful due diligence inside the government,” said the president, seemingly with Sechin in mind.

The deputy prime minister, the deal’s greatest public proponent on the Russian side, had to quit Rosneft after Medvedev in March ordered government officials to leave state company boards in the interests of transparency.

The conflict with Sechin is old news. But the reform-minded Medvedev also gently chided the conservative Putin, suggesting that the country could change faster than the prime minister thought.  The relationship was close, said Medvedev, “But that doesn’t mean we agree on everything. It must not be that way, that would be very boring and simply wrong.”

Medvedev declined to set a date for an announcement as to whether he or Putin would stand as the official candidate in next year’s presidential election. But he said a decision would be announced “soon”.

Medvedev’s carefully-staged performance is the latest in a series of public appearances that amount to a virtual election campaign. Putin has similarly been promoting himself. The two-track approach puts both men in the public eye and generates electoral excitement.

Moscow is rife with speculation as to who will run. For what it’s worth, beyondbrics puts its rouble on Medvedev on the grounds that the current division of labour has served the two men and the country reasonably well. But this is a decision that will be taken (or has already been taken) by a very small group headed by Putin.

Related reading
In depth: Oil
BP-Rosneft: battle of the billions, beyondbrics
Editorial Comment: Oligarchs call BP’s bluff,FT
Dudley faces backlash over Russia, FT