beyondbrics

Since Mexico’s Agustín Carstens threw his sombrero into the ring in the contest to succeed Dominique Strauss-Kahn as the head of the International Monetary Fund, the international response has been underwhelming.

Carstens has billed himself as the champion of the emerging-markets nations, which he sees as requiring a much bigger role in setting the Fund’s agenda. Mexico’s finance minister, Ernesto Cordero, agrees. Having worked for years in the Fund, Carstens is the ideal candidate for the top post, said Cordero.

But Cordero would say that, wouldn’t he? Carstens is the governor of the Mexican central bank, and he was Cordero’s predecessor as finance minister.

Otherwise, however, Latin American solidarity appears to be in short supply. Brazil, by far the region’s biggest hitter, appears to be balking at the prospect. Guido Mantega, the finance minister said he wants to hear more about Carstens’ proposals.

Whatever, he added, no Brazilian could fit the bill for the Fund post.

And Peru’s finance minister, Ismael Benavides, told Reuters that he remains undecided about the Carstens candidacy. He did add, however, that Latin American should unite in favour of a candidate for the region.

But who else could there be? The only other possible Latin American candidate so far appears to be Alejandro Foxley, a former Chilean finance minister. Chilean officials are said to be mulling the proposal, but Messrs William Hill and others are not expected to be banking on it.

Nor has Carstens appear to have the backing of his fellow countryman, Jose Angel Gurría, the head of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. So far at least, Gurría seems to be supporting Europe’s hot favourite, Christine Lagarde of France.

But Carstens has strong support from his president, Felipe Calderón, and that is significant.

Calderón’s international image and his powers of persuasion on the world scene appear much more than those in his own country. While the world, for example, sees Calderón as a resolute leader of the battle against the international drugs menace, many in Mexico see him as losing the nation in a labyrinth of violence that he seems unable to escape.

Calderón has powers of persuasion in international affairs. Carstens might not be a hot tip, but with Calderón to back him, he could be an each-way bet.

Related reading:
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The IMF’s crisis: a chance for EM?, beyondbrics
Après Strauss-Kahn [Updated]… FT Alphaville
The IMF needs another European head, Wolfgang Münchau, FT