Daily Archives: July 12, 2011

Brazilian retailThere’s been a lot of debate in beyondbrics around whether Brazil’s economy is blowing bubbles. Certainly the signs of a hot economy are everywhere. Mercer just judged São Paulo the 10th most expensive city in the world. Warehouses rentals here are now the fourth most costly in the globe. Prime office space in some parts of Rio de Janeiro cost more than those in New York. Consumer credit defaults are rising.

The FT decided to take the pulse of Brazil’s economy by visiting a poor neighbourhood of Salvador, in the booming northeast, and through interviews with prominent economists. The result? Brazil is doing well but consumers are beginning to look stretched and the country is too exposed to the vagaries of commodity prices. Brazil needs to increase productivity to make its economic miracle more sustainable. For the full story, click here.

Now it’s time for Neil Shearing of Capital Economics to weigh into the debate on the Brazilian credit bubble.

On the bubbleometer scale between Paul Marshall and Amit Rajpal of Marshall Wace (Brazil risks “a fully fledged credit crisis”) and Roberto Attuch and Fabio Zagatti of BarCap (consumers are not overstretched at all), Shearing is closer to Tony Volpon of Nomura Securities (no credit bubble, but consumers are overstretched). But he adds a thumping warning: consumers are so overstretched that Brazil’s economy is about to hit a wall, with growth falling to 2.5 per cent in 2013 from 7.5 per cent last year. Continue reading »

As tens of thousands of South African workers were downing their tools to demand higher wages, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) released a report that was leapt upon by union officials.

In a third edition of its “Executive directors’ remuneration” report, PwC said that the median total guaranteed package for executive directors at the top 40 Johannesburg-listed companies had risen 23.3 per cent last year to R4.8m. Continue reading »

It’s not just warehouse space that costs a lot in São Paulo. Everything does, according to the latest Worldwide Cost of Living survey from Mercer, the US human resource consultancy.

São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro soared up the rankings this year to 1oth and 12th place worldwide (from 21st and 27th last year), making them the most expensive cities in the Americas, north or south. Continue reading »

According to the Russian government, it’s never been a better time to invest in the country’s housing market. As Vladimir Putin noted in his annual address to parliament this year, the country is building 59 million square metres in new housing a year, with plans to almost double that by 2016, and mortgage rates are creeping down from their astronomical crisis levels.

But can ordinary Russians afford to take out mortgages at the current 12 per cent average rate? Ruslan Sharifov, a Volgograd-based developer, says no.

Continue reading »

Cucumbers were thought to carry the bacteriaE. coli bacteria is certainly dangerous for human body, but it has proven rather helpful to shoppers’ wallets. The panic following the bacteria outbreak caused vegetable prices to plunge and inflation rates in many of the Central and Eastern European countries to slow down. Continue reading »

Central and eastern Europe is weathering the eurozone storm better than some other corners of the Continent – but the waves are beginning to wash over the gunwhales.

As the euro fell to a new all-time low against the Swiss Franc on Tuesday, so did the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint.  With 60 per cent-plus of mortgages in both countries in foreign currencies, mainly Swiss francs, that’s a political and social, as well as economic headache. Continue reading »

Infosys Technologies, India’s second largest IT outsourcer by revenues, has a tough job. The Bangalore-based company is always the first in its sector to report quarterly results and its performance and outlook tend to influence the share price of all its peers, as investors see Infosys as a bellwether for the entire $60bn plus industry. Continue reading »

 picture combo shows Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou (L) and opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen (R) speaking during a televised debate on a planned trade agreement with China in Taipei on April 25, 2010It is a common story that mainland Chinese tourists to Taiwan – only allowed en masse since 2008 – spend most of their evenings holed up in their hotel rooms, enthralled by the raucous political debate that happens nightly on Taiwanese talk shows but rarely, if ever, on Chinese television screens.

This interest is apparently being carried over even to the new Google+ social networking site. The Google+ page of Tsai Ing-wen , chairwoman of Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party and candidate for the presidency in next year’s election, has become a platform for lively debate and commentary – largely from mainland Chinese users. Continue reading »

* China’s FX reserves soar $153bn

* Thomas Cook shares plunge on warning

* China’s ‘eye-in-the-sky’ nears par with US

* Essar Oil set to raise $1.5bn

* Vale drops $1.1bn bid to purchase Metorex Continue reading »

When Estonia joined the eurozone in January, it was hailed as proof one of eastern Europe’s most reform-minded economies had shed the last of its Soviet baggage.

But now, a bitter dispute over a flagship privatisation agreement is threatening to put a dent in the country’s reputation with foreign investors. Continue reading »

Vladimir Putin boasted earlier this year that the hardy Russian tourist wouldn’t be driven off the beaches in Egypt by a little local unrest. It’s a different story with the French.

Thomas Cook, the travel operator, on Tuesday, issued a profits warning blaming weak consumer spending in the UK – and fear among French tourists of visiting their usual haunts in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. It all knocked 29 per cent of the Thomas Cook share price:  a perfect example of EM political risk hitting a developed market company. Continue reading »

Tuesday’s top reads from the beyondbrics team: why skills and education are not enough in Russia, what the Muslim Brotherhood needs to do to improve Egypt’s economy and India’s very own (and over-sized) Statue of Liberty. Continue reading »

Marrakesh, the  soukCompetition for the world’s international banks is coming from ever more remote corners.  Never mind the BRICs, even Morocco needs watching.

Despite the turmoil afflicting large parts of the Arab world, Attijariwafa, known as AWB, Morocco’s biggest bank by assets, has completed the latest of a string of sub-Saharan acquisitions, in the shape of a majority shareholding in Société Camerounaise de Banque, the fourth largest bank in Cameroon. Continue reading »

By Morgan Harting of AllianceBernstein

Developing countries have seen tens of millions of their people emerge from poverty into the middle class, and everyone wants a piece of the action. Every entrepreneur or multinational has an angle on how to tap into the emerging consumer’s new spending power, and investors have been pouring into consumer stocks. The trouble is, all this exuberance has already been priced into many valuations. The challenge now is how to find less obvious ways to gain exposure to the emerging consumer at a better price. Continue reading »

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