Hugo Chavez: in denial
It’s not often that a bank goes short on a leader’s life expectancy – but that’s what Barclays Capital has done in a note on Monday about Venezuela’s president.
In a report titled “Hugo Chávez: Life expectancy: 2 years”, their analysts have taken very seriously an interview published a week ago with Salvador Navarrete, a Venezuelan doctor who treated Chávez for a few months in 2002. Continue reading »
Argentina: Cristina’s catch-22
Bloomberg
Cristina Fernández scored a tumultuous victory in Sunday’s Argentine elections. She won in 22 out of Argentina’s 23 provinces, as well as the federal capital; won back control of the lower house of Congress which she lost in 2009, with support from allied parties and trounced the splintered opposition, winning by a 37 point margin.
But could such enormous support prove to be a curse, not a blessing? Continue reading »
Russia-Ukraine ties: thawing
Vladimir Putin’s grand plan to form a Moscow-led Eurasian Union in the former Soviet space appears to be taking shape following the signing of a free trade pact by a raft of CIS states in St Petersburg last week.
Few details about the agreement have been released, but it appears to have set the stage for resolution of a gas trading dispute between Russia and Ukraine that has soured relations between the two countries. Continue reading »
CEE market wrap: nearly all positive on the eastern front
Central and eastern European stocks climbed for a second day as hopes of a resolution to the eurozone crisis and some positive manufacturing sentiment from China, the strongest for 5 months, buoyed investor confidence. However, the gains could well be temporary. Continue reading »
Medvedev finds his inner shuttlecock
Vladimir Putin’s prowess as a judo black belt has escaped little attention over the last decade and added to the leader’s image as a macho, chest-baring strongman. Now his successor, the lame duck president Dmtiry Medvedev, has finally found his own athletic calling: badminton.
In what would appear to be a cruel joke by Kremlin spin doctors, the president is launching a campaign to develop the sport in Russia, beginning with a cringe-inducing video posted Monday on the president’s video blog site. Continue reading »
India: outpacing China by 2013?
After months of bad news flow – high inflation! interest rate hikes! corruption! high petrol prices! weak currency! – India is finally getting some good news, even if it’s a good two years off.
In 2013, according to an Ernst & Young report released Monday, India will grow at 9.5 per cent, bouncing back from this year’s 7.2 per cent, and outpacing China’s projected 9.2 per cent. Continue reading »
Russian imperialism: should we worry?
A fascinating report from Kingsmill Bond and colleagues at Citi on Monday tackles the issue of Russian imperialism and whether investors should be worried.
Absolutely not, says Bond. The fear of Russian imperialism is back, he writes, but there are no grounds for it. In a series of graphs (after the break) he charts the decline of Russia as a global power and argues that its reduced circumstances will force it to make friends with Europe to attract the technology it needs for modernisation.
The report argues convincingly that there is no reason to fear a resurgent Russia. But it leaves to one side the reasons to fear a Russia in decline. Continue reading »
Nigeria: walking a ratings tightrope
Nigeria’s resolve to maintain currency stability and push ahead with economic reforms to combat inflation (as seen in the unexpected 275 basis points rate rise to 12 per cent on October 10) have been rewarded – just a little.
The country’s outlook is now stable, according to ratings agency Fitch (who had put the country on negative watch in Oct 2010) – but reliance on oil revenues and its relatively weak foreign reserves could still haul it back down.
New York headlines
* Powerful earthquakes rocks eastern Turkey
* Tunisia votes in Arab spring’s first poll
* Fernández wins re-election in Argentina
* China PMI: positive signs boost Asia Continue reading »
China: making Gap sexier
Maybe the Chinese can do for Gap what generations of American shoppers have failed to do: make its clothes sexier. The US retailer only opened its first store in China last November but Redmond Yeung, president of Gap Greater China, says mainland consumers are already having an impact on its famously preppy clothing.
“A lot of good ideas are coming out of this market,” he told journalists at a briefing on Monday at 800 Show, the Shanghai government-backed design space where Gap has its China headquarters. Name one? Gap’s US women’s wear line for summer 2012 will be “more sexy in the cut” due to the influence of China, he said. Continue reading »
India: open to foreign airlines
Foreign airlines may soon have the chance to invest in the burgeoning Indian airline industry – an attractive proposition despite the fact that its currently riddled with debt and competition is fierce.
With passenger traffic growing by 15-20 per cent each year, and at least 12 new airports currently in development, foreign carriers are likely to overlook the Indian industry’s shortcomings. There’s simply too much growth in India for foreign carriers to pass up this chance. Continue reading »
Further reading: a new era
Monday’s top picks from the beyondbrics team: Libya after Gaddafi and the future of the Arab spring; Tunisia’s fledgling democracy; South Africa’s minimum-wage reduction; India’s season of tipping; and China’s ruling party tries to find its softer side. Continue reading »
[video] Investing post-Arab spring
With the first elections since the rise of the Arab Spring take place in Tunisia, investors will be watching closely to see whether the outcome bodes well for the region’s democratic evolution and business environment. In this video (after the break) Seb Morton-Clark reports on the investment outlook for the Middle East and north Africa. Continue reading »
China PMI: positive signs boost Asia
Production in China is growing again – that’s the key point from the flash PMI figure out on Monday, which showed the strongest reading in 5 months.
It may only be the preliminary figure – the HSBC flash number often contradicts the official PMI reading – but it helped push Asian markets higher, and put a couple of them back in the green for 2011. Continue reading »
London headlines
* Powerful earthquakes rocks eastern Turkey
* Tunisia votes in Arab spring’s first poll
* Argentine president Fernandez won landslide re-election
* Libya’s new leaders say country is liberated Continue reading »
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