beyondbrics

Tired of the usual investment advice on the Brics? On the lookout for new up-and-coming countries? Here are few recommendations that you might not have considered.

Control Risks, a consultancy which looks mainly at political and security risks around the world, released a report called RiskMap 2012 on Monday – with some intringuing investment pointers. Its top five? Bulgaria, Colombia, Libya, Mozambique, and Sri Lanka.

The five may raise a few eyebrows. But here are the reasons:

Bulgaria: [compared to more] profligate EU member states, Bulgaria, with an expected 2011 budget deficit at 2.5% of GDP and public debt at 17.5%, clearly stands out… [Despite] pervasive corruption and organised crime, the country’s relative fiscal and political stability, coupled with strong links to the EU, Russia, and Turkey, make it an attractive, albeit understated, investment destination in 2012.

Colombia: Although security concerns persist, leftist guerrillas are on the back foot and security gains continue to open up new areas for extractive development. In 2011 the country won back its investment grade rating, while a long-delayed free trade agreement with the US will come into force in 2012.

Libya: Libya will be able to finance wide-ranging reconstruction through sovereign wealth and oil revenues… While conducting business will undoubtedly remain complex with a legacy of corruption and inefficient bureaucracy complicated by emerging political risks, there is nonetheless significant potential for investors.

Mozambique: Mozambique’s stable political environment has encouraged a boom in offshore petroleum exploration… The development of a transport corridor to South Africa has also facilitated the development of the country’s nascent mining sector and existing infrastructure shortfalls present ample opportunities for investors.

Sri Lanka: Despite international criticism… the Sri Lankan government’s tight control of the security situation has made the island much safer. With recent offshore gas finds there will be renewed interest from foreign companies in licenses of oil and gas concessions in the Mannar Basin, expected in early 2012… Contributing in the thermal power sector is limited by India and China’s presence on the island.

You may or may not agree with the five countries chosen, but at least it is a positive note. The report paints a picture of global gloom: it identifies three trends for the next year as rising inequality; intensifying public scrutiny of elites; and delegitimisation of rulers. In other words: more millionaires, anger on Twitter, and protests by jobless youth.

So expect the unexpected, says Control Risks. “The extraordinary has become ordinary.”