Argentina: salaries on the rise
Got a measly pay rise at the end of 2011? Or none at all? You might, after a brief look at new figures from the UN’s International Labour Organisation, consider moving to Argentina. Continue reading »
Goldman: beware fast EM credit growth
Everybody knows that credit is shrinking in developed economies. Banks are scared to lend and clients are frightened to borrow.
But it’s quite different in emerging markets, as Goldman Sachs points out in a report this week. While credit contracted by 1 per cent in a typical developed country last year, in the typical EM it grew – and by a chunky 11 per cent.
That’s not a problem in itself, says Goldman. But it could it become one if the credit crunch in the eurozone gets any worse, because banks will be forced to cut exposure quickly and so rob credit-hungry EMs of funds. Who is most exposed? Central and eastern Europe and Latin America. Continue reading »
Chart of the week: who has IMF help?
With Egypt resuming talks with the IMF in the next few days, and Hungary making more conciliatory noises about IMF help, it’s a busy time for the fund.
But which emerging countries actually have IMF facilities, and for how much? Chart of the week finds out. Continue reading »
Fitch puts South Africa on negative
As speculation swirled about the latest action to be taken by rating agencies in the crisis-hit eurozone, South Africa had its own dose of bad news.
Fitch on Friday affirmed the country’s long term foreign and local currency credit ratings at BBB+ and A, respectively, but revised its outlook on Africa’s largest economy to negative from stable. Continue reading »
Putin shrugs off online critics
Vladimir Putin has had a tough week. His new campaign site Putin2012.ru was barraged with negative comments on Thursday within the first hour being launched, with users calling for him to retire, resign and worse. (You can see a cached list of the comments, which were later scrubbed, here.)
Yet all is not bad for Russia’s paramount leader. According to VTsIOM, the Russian polling agency, Putin’s numbers have actually gotten better since when protests first took off in early December. Continue reading »
Banco do Brasil’s nifty perpetual bond
As beyondbrics reported on Thursday, there has been quite a pick up in bond issuance from Brazil since the start of the year. One offer in particular, from government-controlled Banco do Brasil, merits a closer look.
The largest Latin American bank by assets came to markets on Thursday with a bond that may linger around until the end of time. Continue reading »
Fund flows: this way, that way, forwards and backwards
What to make of this week’s fund flows? Emerging market hard currency bond funds saw a big outflow; EM local currency bonds continued to ebb away; but EM equity funds leapt up.
The hard currency number may be a blip – but the local currency data hint at bigger problems. Continue reading »
US, China, Iran oil: not quite eye to eye
When US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner travelled to Beijing this week, the US embassy initially struck a note of cautious optimism: China is open to cooperating with the US vis-à-vis Iran, officials said.
But the day after Geithner left, the US suddenly announced new sanctions against a Chinese oil trader that works closely with Iran, hinting that the visit may not have gone as smoothly as it first appeared. Continue reading »
Guest post: is Saudi Arabia’s dominance of global oil markets coming to an end?
By Kathleen Sullivan of Ergo
From a petroleum perspective, 2011 appears to have been a fantastic year for Saudi Arabia. The country’s oil production soared to over 10m bpd, piling up cash reserves and reducing government debt. Proud holder of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, highest exports, and most spare capacity, Saudi Arabia seems guaranteed the pre-eminent position in world oil markets that it has held for decades.
Yet throughout the past year, threats to the Kingdom’s power intensified. Disruptions in Libyan production cast doubt on Saudi Arabia’s spare-capacity reserves. Fractious OPEC meetings highlighted the Saudis’ increasing tensions with nuclear-armed Iran. Arab Spring uprisings stirred emotions among restive Saudi youth. Continue reading »
New York headlines
* Myanmar frees dozens of political prisoners
* Arab League chief fears Syria civil war
* US sanctions Chinese oil trader
* China forex reserves drop for 1st quarter since ’98 Continue reading »
Carson Block to go long China
Carson Block, the man behind research firm Muddy Waters, gained a fearsome reputation by accusing US-listed Chinese companies of fraud and profiting handsomely when their shares plunged. But the notorious short-seller is changing tack. This week he told Bloomberg he was on the hunt for US-listed Chinese companies in which to invest. Continue reading »
India internet: clean-up or censorship?
Is India going the way of China? Not when it comes to development indicators. Or enhanced infrastructure. Or economic power. But in another category at which Beijing excels: web censorship.
That was the implication of a ruling on Thursday from Justice Suresh Kait, of the Delhi High Court, who told lawyers for Facebook India and Google India that unless they develop mechanisms to regulate “offensive and objectionable” material on their web sites, India is prepared to take drastic measures, according to the Hindustan Times. “Like China, we will block all such websites,” Kalit declared. Continue reading »
Taiwan’s stocks in pre-election boost
Has Taiwan’s stock market been benefiting from an election boost? Conventional wisdom suggests that, with a still-uncertain election outcome on Saturday, and continued storm clouds over the eurozone, investors should have been sticking to the sidelines until a clearer picture emerges.
But in fact the Taiwan stock exchange has been one of the best performers in Asia this year, rising 7.8 per cent since December 20 to close at 7181.54 on Friday, the last trading day before the vote on January 14. Continue reading »
China video: Apple crunched at Beijing iPhone 4S launch
Apple ran into trouble with the launch of iPhone 4S in china when violence flared on Friday at at its flagship store in Beijing, which saw similar scenes at the launch of the iPad 2, as this amateur video shows.
Further reading: Masai chefs
Friday’s feast from the beyondbrics team: Lex on India’s lacklustre airline industry; upheaval in Malaysian politics; Georgia’s outdated laws; how US candidates talking tough on foreign policy is dangerous in Chinese eyes; and making culinary chefs out of Masai chiefs. Continue reading »
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