beyondbrics

Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, held out what looked like an olive branch to the European Union and International Monetary Fund on Monday, saying his government should give ground to secure a funding agreement. But the path of peace and light may not be so well mapped out.

In a speech to open the spring session of parliament, Orbán said Hungary should defend its national interests while striving for agreement on disputed legislation.

“We must fight but we must also do this with common sense and working towards an agreement,” Orban told lawmakers in his short speech, Reuters reported.

“We must proceed in this manner in our talks with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, be it certain issues of central bank regulation, the status of the ombudsman, the law on the judiciary or the financial safety net,” he said, adding: “We have a chance for good agreements.”

Given that Budapest has until Friday to respond to EC concerns over new laws affecting the central bank, data protection and judicial legislation – or potentially face legal action – such talk sows optimism.

With such apparent reasonableness, it would seem an understanding with the EU and a subsequent deal the IMF could be concluded sooner rather than later. After all, a senior government official had earlier told Reuters that Hungary would send its formal reply to the EC on the disputed laws by the deadline and, if the proposals were accepted, parliament could modify the laws at issue within a fortnight.

The recent change of mood from Orbán – who even admitted to a party gathering last week that the the pell mell race to create new laws had led to “mistakes” and that the government had not kept its promise to create jobs – no doubt helped persuade Morgan Stanley to predict that Hungary would sign up to a deal with the IMF and EU on a financial package by April.

Indeed, Monday’s address was a clear indication of how serious Orbán views the EU in general, Gábor Takács, of the government-leaning Nezöpont Institute, stressed to beyondbrics.

“Orbán’s address today focused on the EU fiscal pact, with the PM urging MPs to support the resolution entitling him to sign the pact on the March EU summit. His address was a clear statement of a pro-EU stance, which is especially significant after he had been accused of drifting away from that direction by the left-wing opposition,” he said.

Not all are so persuaded: Szabolcs Kerék-Bárczy, of the Freedom and Reform Institute – a centre-right but not pro-Orbán think tank – insists the prime minister has adopted a conciliatory tone merely as a tactic to gain political advantage after his aggressive stance resulted in widespread EU antipathy.

“Orbán’s attitude towards the EU and other international organisations has not softened recently at all: he is using a double standard and double speech more than ever in order to lull the world,” he said.

Kerék-Bárczy points to an interview with a local TV station as an example of the old, unreformed Orbán , making domestic political hay by criticising the EU. In that interview, Orbán alleged the EU had displayed “cavalier behaviour” and complained its “offensive, insulting tones… do not make us friends but rather opponents of the EU and the European idea.”

And rather than stressing any need to progress together on a common democratic path, Orbán said: “[The EU] wants to have a say in how we should live but this question will be decided by 10m Hungarians”.

Takács, however, insisted Obrán was determined to protect national interests while genuinely seeking an agreement.

Maybe. The chances are that a conciliatory Orbán will be telling the EC what it wants to hear this week. How he will behave if and when Hungary gets the safety net of an IMF standby loan is another matter.

Related reading:
IMF to Hungary: get some insurance, it’s a dangerous world, beyondbrics
Guest post: Orbán’s hazy memory of debts, cuts and economic policy, beyondbrics
Hungary: Orbán munches humble pie, beyondbrics
Hungary: Brussels in court threat, beyondbrics
Orban and the EU, FT
Hungary’s leader ready to back down in EU dispute, FT