Venezuelan elections: getting dirty
Supporters of Venezuela’s socialist government have begun a smear campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski and questioned the legitimacy of the Sunday election that confirmed him as the man who will take on President Hugo Chávez in October.
The primary vote saw a turnout of more than three million Venezuelans, a staggering figure for an opposition traditionally disjointed and unable to mobilise the population’s considerable antagonism towards the president. Continue reading »
Russia’s Amazon goes shoe shopping
Venture capitalists have long been touting Russia as the undiscovered market for e-commerce. While the postal system is notoriously bad and Russians have been reluctant to embrace online payments, investors argue that the market simply needs to be consolidated for homegrown versions of Amazon.com to enjoy the success of their western counterparts.
The leader of this consolidation appears to be Ozon.ru – the online book, music and vido seller – which on Wednesday announced it would be acquiring Sapato.ru, a dot-com shoe retailer. Continue reading »
Turkey targets current account deficit via mobile phones
In a week in which Turkey registered a record current account deficit, Ankara has expressed its concern about the country’s consumerism – the source both of much of Turkey’s growth and of its penchant for imports.
“Is Turkey so rich that people change their cell phones every 11 months?” asked Zafer Caglayan, the country’s economy minister, adding that the country imported 14m mobile phones last year. Continue reading »
South Africa: shoppers’ surprise
Ahead of next week’s budget, Pravin Gordhan, South Africa’s finance minister, was handed some positive news that may help lift some of the gloom around the slow pace of his country’s economic growth.
Data released on Wednesday revealed that headline retail sales growth in Africa’s largest economy rose by an above-consensus 8.7 per cent in December, up from 7.2 per cent in November.
The economy is among the hardest hit in Africa by the eurozone crisis, as about a third of manufactured exports go to Europe. This year the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast to 2.5 per cent from 3.6 per cent. This compares poorly with 5.5 per cent for sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. Yet retail sales held up pretty well last year. Continue reading »
Hungary: much ado about not much?
A welcome surprise from Hungary on Wednesday: the central bank is to provide a two-year liquidity facility and buy mortgage bonds in a two-pronged attempt to get the country’s commercial banks lending again.
At least, it was welcome for the markets. Yields on two- to three-year government bonds fell by 30 to 40 basis points and the forint continued its recent recovery. But analysts are divided on whether the package, with its size still under discussion, will do much to get the economy moving. Continue reading »
Polish bond market: banks get in
Poland has traditionally been a ravenous importer of capital, but the country’s growing wealth coupled with international instability is prompting business and the central and local governments to turn to the domestic bond market – with surprisingly strong results.
Getin Noble Bank, Poland’s eighth largest bank, is in the midst of issuing up to 600m zlotys ($188m) in subordinated six-year debt, which could be followed by a second issue worth about 400m zlotys, says Krzysztof Rosinski, the bank’s CEO. Continue reading »
Louis Delhaize: investing in Romanian retail [corrected]
A vote of confidence on Wednesday for the fragile Romanian economy from Louis Delhaize, the Belgian retail group.
The group is expanding Cora, its Romanian hypermarket chain, from eight stores to around 25 in a big push to expand modern retail out of Bucharest and into the provinces.
It won’t be easy with GDP forecast to stagnate in 2012 or even to contract. But with scores of Romanian towns and cities still without modern hypermarkets or supermarkets, Delhaize sees a lot of potential in developing the Romanian consumer. Continue reading »
Corruption and investment: the link
As a country shakes off a reputation for corruption, its economy tends to grow and its capital markets tend to rise.
Correlation or causation? Unclear. But as one Singapore-based economist points out, the link means emerging market investors should be watching how effective countries are not just in reforming, but in convincing the world that they’re reforming. Continue reading »
New York headlines
* Syria expands army assaults
* China central bank signals gradual policy easing
* Israel accuses Iran over Thailand blast
* China pledges to invest in Europe bailouts Continue reading »
CEE: Czechs in recession
The Czech Republic has become the first economy in central and eastern Europe to slide back into recession, with a 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter GDP decline in the last three months of 2011, after a 0.1 per cent drop in the previous quarter.
The news, announced on Wednesday, is depressing but scarcely unexpected given the country’s dependence on the eurozone, which also saw GDP contract in the fourth quarter. Continue reading »
Asian markets: buoyed by Wen
A renewed pledge by China to assist Europe in tackling its debt prices injected confidence into Asian equities on Wednesday, with markets across the region broadly up.
The benchmark MSCI Asia Apex 50 (ex-Japan) climbed 2.2 per cent to 848.50, buoyed by continued optimism over the Bank of Japan’s decision to loosen monetary policy on Tuesday – a move which had surprised analysts. Continue reading »
Chinese GDP: doesn’t add up
One of China’s longer-standing economic controversies has erupted again. All 31 provincial-level jurisdictions have reported their 2011 GDP figures and the results are unbelievable in the original meaning of that word – as in, not able to be believed.
Of the 31 growth rates, 28 were faster than China’s overall expansion of 9.2 per cent. Chinese media have pounced on this discrepancy to question the reliability of official economic data. That’s not entirely fair. Continue reading »
Further reading: soothing tension
Wednesday’s picks from the beyondbrics team: Wallmart’s slipping share in a burgeoning Chinese retail market; intervening in Syria – lessons from eastern Europe; India’s Dalits are no longer “untouchable”; poverty looms for an aging population in Asia; and what can sooth the escalation of tensions between the Russia government and its detractors? Continue reading »
Hon Hai: a recovery stock?
Is the glass half full or half empty with Hon Hai? The world’s biggest contract electronics maker – and controlling shareholder in Foxconn – has faced a number of new challenges recently, but since the beginning of the year its share price has risen 27 per cent. Continue reading »
Alpha/Eurobank deal doubts cast shadow over Balkans
By Philip Alexander of the Banker
When Alpha Bank (ALPHA:ATH) and EFG Eurobank Ergasias (EUROB:ATH), the second and third-largest Greek banks, unveiled a merger plan in August, it was widely hailed as the first good news out of the Athens banking sector for a long time.
The move would create the country’s largest bank by some distance, strengthen Greek banking, and bolster the Greek bank presence in the Balkans, where some countries rely heavily on Greek finance.
But now Alpha has warned that it is having second thoughts about the deal.
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