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The price of Brent crude oil hit an eight-month high last week, and is currently trading at more than $120 per barrel as fears escalated that Iran, the world’s third-largest oil exporter, could cut its exports to the European Union.

How much do emerging markets depend on oil for their energy – and who wins and who loses from high oil prices? Chart of the week investigates.

India and China – which together make up over a third of the world’s population – are the two largest emerging markets oil consumers. True, they rely even more upon coal than oil – but Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics at HSBC, points out that both will feel the pinch of rising crude prices at home.

China, which was self-sufficient until 1993, now buys more than half of its oil from overseas. Neumann says that if oil prices remain at these levels, the country’s import bill will comfortably top 3 per cent of GDP, doubling in less than a decade. India is in arguably a worse position still, with its economy slowing and its government unable to provide much in the way of subsidies.

The Middle East relies more heavily upon oil than any of the other regions for its energy; but then, the Arab League – led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait – account for around one-third of the world’s oil exports. As Iran struggles to find a buyer for as much of a quarter of its exports amid sanctions by the EU, its neighbours might be expected to make up the shortfall. But this can’t be taken for granted: Saudi Arabia – which holds virtually all the spare production capacity of the global oil industry – was revealed this month to have a lower maximum production capacity than previously forecast.

Russia is the world’s fifth largest oil consumer, despite oil making up a relatively low proportion of its total energy usage. But as the world’s single largest exporter – selling 7.4m barrels per day in 2010 – it would gain from rising crude prices. Brazil, the next largest consumer, is in a more precarious position. It has recently become a net exporter – but not, yet, by much – and is  touted as one of the world’s up and coming major oil producers. But there are fears that high crude prices could hit global demand for its commodities, a concern for its export-driven economy.

Amongs African nations, South Africa, Africa’s biggest importer of oil, would certainly feel the squeeze of the rising price of crude. But Nigeria, Angola and and Algeria all rank among the world’s top-15 oil-exporters.

In Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, oil and gas revenues make up around 40 per cent of GDP – suggesting that high crude would accelerate its momentum towards becoming Africa’s largest economy. But further oil price rises would be controversial domestically: the removal of Nigeria’s fuel subsidy sparked nationwide protests in January after fuel prices doubled, forcing a part-reversal. Other African nations grappling with fuel subsidy costs- including Ghana, Guinea and Chad – might also have to reconsider cuts implemented this year.

Related reading:
Iran struggles to find new oil customers, FT
Mideast uncertainty whips crude higher, FT
Guest post: beware oil at $120 a barrel, beyondbrics