Mexico retail: when a drop isn’t a drop
If ever you were looking for misleading statistics, check out Mexico’s December retail sales, which showed a 2.6 fall compared with the previous month.
That, as Reuters reported, was the sharpest month-on-month drop since May 2009, and would seem to indicate dark clouds gathering over Mexico’s economic recovery. Except that there are no dark clouds – at least not yet. Continue reading »
Belarus’s salary dilemma
Alexander Lukashenko wants average salaries in Belarus to go up – and what the authoritarian leader wants, he usually gets, which is likely to mean more trouble for the ex-Soviet republic’s battered economy.
“What is the average salary of $500? This is quite a low level – we should get higher. And this is a task for everybody,” Lukashenko told local officials this week, according to the local press. Continue reading »
EMs: not following the cloud
Cloud computing is set to become very big business indeed – and emerging markets don’t intend to miss out. According to the Asia Cloud Computing Association, China alone plans to invest RMB 1.1 tr ($154.5 bn) in the technology over the next few years.
But there’s a problem, says the Business Software Alliance, a trade group which represents some of the world’s biggest software companies including Microsoft and Apple. A report it released on Wednesday assesses the regulatory climate of 24 countries, accounting for 80 percent of the global ICT market. Its conclusion? Poor regulation in EMs – including Brazil, India and China – threatens the future of cloud computing. Continue reading »
Russian advertising: on a roll
If advertising is the mirror of an economy, Russia has certainly bounced back from the 2008 financial crisis.
Advertisers spent Rbs263.4bn ($8.9bn) in Russia last year, 21 per cent more than in 2010 and back above pre-crisis levels, according to the Russian Association of Communication Agencies. Continue reading »
Great Wall Motor: made in Europe
Great Wall Motor this week opened the first Chinese car factory in the European Union, near the village of Bahovitsa in northern Bulgaria. It will make two models in a partnership with Litex Motors of Bulgaria: Great Wall’s Voleex C10 city car and Steed 5 double-cab pickup, both for sale to European markets.
But will Europeans buy them? Continue reading »
Imperial Holdings: shopping around
With South Africa’s sluggish growth prospects confirmed in Wednesday’s budget, you would think investors would be happy with an acquisition-hungry company delivering revenues up 22 per cent.
Imperial Holdings, South Africa’s largest car dealership and logistics company, completed seven acquisitions in the second half of 2011 – and that doesn’t include the recent purchase of German logistics provider Lehnkering for €270m. But shares were down 1.17 per cent at one stage on Wednesday before recovering slightly. You can’t please everyone. Continue reading »
S African budget: cautious enough?
If the intention of Pravin Gordhan, South Africa’s finance minister, was reaffirm to the prudent fiscal credentials of his Treasury and send a message to wary ratings agencies, the initial reaction to his budget on Wednesday suggests he succeeded.
Bonds strengthened while he spoke. But they later retreated as investors judged the tough targets he had set might be hard to meet. The yield on the 2026 bond rose to 8.24 per cent from an earlier low of 8.18 per cent. The rand held steady at around 7.70 to the dollar. Continue reading »
Arab spring in London property
The Arab spring has turned into a ka-ching [£££] for London’s new-build residential property market, according to real estate consultants Jones Lang LaSalle.
The value of Middle East investment in London’s new-build market almost doubled last year as unrest in the region prompted buyers to look for havens abroad, the property consultants say. Continue reading »
Forint wilts as Brussels gets tough
The Hungarian forint took a tumble on Wednesday after the European Commission raised the ante in its high-profile row with Budapest – and froze €495m in European Union cohesion funds for 2013.
The Commission said archly that the planned move was an “incentive” not a “punishment” in its push to persuade Hungary to abide by EU rules on budget deficits. And it’s given Budapest time to comply, since it won’t apply to 2012 money. But the message to prime minister Viktor Orbán’s government is clear – get on with it. Continue reading »
Romania: OMV and Exxon in gas find
Good news for Romania – a “potentially significant” offshore gas disovery in the Black Sea.
It’s far too early to say whether it is a commercial proposition, but investors were excited enough by Wednesday’s announcement by project partners ExxonMobil and Austria’s OMV to move the markets. OMV shares rose by nearly 6 per cent before falling back to trade 4 per cent higher. ExxonMobil stock barely moved – perhaps even a big Black Sea find may not look that big in Texas. Continue reading »
New York headlines
* IAEA ‘disappointed’ in Iran nuclear talks
* China manufacturing data show risk of deeper slowdown on exports
* Bank bailout for Kingfisher hangs in balance
* Shell: £1bn entry into Mozambique Continue reading »
India: investing far too little
India’s government painted a rosy picture of the economy on Wednesday, when the prime minister’s economic advisory council released its economic review for the fiscal year ending in March. But a shortage of investment casts doubt over its optimism. Continue reading »
UBS: don’t bet on a big boost from EMs
Looking for another big monetary stimulus from China and other emerging markets? Forget it, says Jonathan Anderson of UBS. Even though we’ve seen interest rates cuts – and can expect more – there’s no scope for radical easing, and no need either.
But, says Anderson, that’s not bad news. It shows that growth is chugging along nicely in most emerging markets, so there should be plenty of opportunities for investors. Continue reading »
Further reading: Syria’s divisions
Wednesday’s picks from the beyondbrics team: an uneasy international consensus against intervention against Assad; why Syria’s rebels may get taken seriously in the end ; Lex on how Africa’s largest food retailer has rewarded investors; and the ethics and practicalities of a market for babies in India. Continue reading »
Shell: £1bn entry into Mozambique
It may often seem as if Chinese natural resources companies are all over Africa. But here’s a deal which shows that western giants are still very much in the game.
Royal Dutch Shell on Wednesday announced £992m agreed bid for Cove Energy – a UK-listed exploration company with a stake in a Mozambique offshore project that the operators have dubbed “one of the most important natural gasfields discovered in the last 10 years”. The bid price is pretty full – 195p a share, compared with Tuesday’s closing price of 154.4p, and a low last year of 55p. Continue reading »
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