Embraer contract: the US flip-flops
It was once the norm in the US to casually brand any equatorial Latin American country as a banana republic. But now it is the US that through its erratic decision-making is displaying the tendencies of a banana republic. At least that is the view from Brazil.
What else could explain the fiasco of the Super Tucano contract this week? Continue reading »
Brazil-Mexico auto fight: calling fouls
Brazil may be hot and Mexico not in the eyes of most of the world. But, says Jorge G. Castañeda, the Mexican political analyst and former foreign secretary: “There’s only two things in which Brazilians are infinitely better than we Mexicans: one is football, and the other is spinning yarns about their own successes.” Continue reading »
Venezuelan bonds: rally on
Hugo Chávez may maintain that he’s recovering from his recent operation well and “soaring like the condor”, but the impressive rally in Venezuelan debt that has coincided with his latest cancer scare could well continue.
That’s because the rally has also been triggered by the emergence of Henrique Capriles Radonski as the president’s challenger in elections later this year, as well as being supported by strengthening oil prices. Continue reading »
Russia: ‘apping’ the elections
During the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, the ultimate status symbol / luxury accessory was a personal armoured train. In 1991, amid the collapse of communism in the USSR, the must have, high concept tool of democratic subversion was the VCR.
And if the current round demonstrations which have broken out in Moscow since last December ever acquire historical proportions, they will be known as the era of the smartphone. Continue reading »
Chart of the week: measuring oil shocks
It’s easy to get concerned about rising oil prices: they push up inflation, prompting rate rises (or a slowing of rate cuts) and hence stymie growth. Don’t they?
What if high oil prices didn’t have that effect, especially on emerging markets? Chart of the week investigates. Continue reading »
Impala: counting the cost of strikes
After six weeks of strikes that led to three deaths, over 100 arrests and the loss of more than $300m of revenue, the worst may finally be over for Impala Platinum, the Johannesburg-based owner of the world’s largest platinum mine.
Impala plans to reboot production at the Rustenburg mine on Monday, which analysts reckon will take at least three weeks, but possibly months. The miner said on Friday that the industrial action has cost it 120,000 ounces of lost platinum production - equating to R2.4 billion ($322 million) of lost revenue - while its share price has tumbled nearly 9 per cent since the strikes began, even as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange rose.
Lotos: no Russian buyers, we are Polish
The last Soviet soldiers left Polish territory in 1992, but that hasn’t ended Polish worries about Russian imperialism – as seen by Friday’s vote in the Polish parliament during which the opposition narrowly won a vote to block the sale of oil refiner Lotos Group.
The only serious buyers for Poland’s second largest oil company were thought to be Russian.
Russia: who’d bet $1m on Prokhorov?
Vladimir Putin is such a favourite to win the Russian presidential vote on March 4 that analysts are already setting up conference calls on the following Monday to discuss his victory. No doubts about the result then.
So who would bet on one of the other contenders? Money down the drain, surely? Continue reading »
Video: More Russian ballot-stuffing?
Election fraud is something of a tradition in Russia but the duplicity that took place in last December’s parliamentary elections reached new levels. Charles Clover, Moscow bureau chief, reports on measures being taken before this weekend’s presidential election.
Russia’s first online election campaign
Sunday’s presidential election may be a five-person race but you wouldn’t know it from trawling the Russian internet. As Russian daily Vedomosti notes today, only two of the candidates have been taking advantage of online ad spending: Mikhail Prokhorov and Vladimir Putin. Continue reading »
Spain to Argentina: Would you like an olive branch? Argentina to Spain: NO
It was too good to last. YPF and its shareholders heaved a sigh of relief after Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s president, did not, after all, say she would nationalise or otherwise exercise control over the Spanish-owned former oil monopoly as she opened Congress on Thursday.
YPF’s shares soared in Buenos Aires. But then a new squabble erupted. Continue reading »
ONGC: define “success”
Seven hours after the Indian government’s sale of a 5 per cent stake in the country’s largest oil company had ended, Delhi had declared the affair a success.
But the rampant confusion that ensued in the auction’s wake – and continued into Friday evening – bodes ill for the government’s ambitious plan to divest itself of $8bn in equity in state-owned companies to shore up its gaping fiscal deficit, to say nothing of the country’s general reputation with investors. Continue reading »
Fund Flows: EM equity triple jump
Another week, yet another healthy set of inflows into EM funds.
This time, though, it was equity funds that stood out as better than expected GDP data from the US and PMI figures from China compounded investor optimism over the ECB’s long-term refinancing operation. After pausing for breath in the previous week, inflows into EM equity funds tripled to $1bn in the week to Wednesday, according to EPFR, the fund flow monitor. Continue reading »
New York headlines
* Opposition calls for boycott as Iran votes
* Russian bank shuts down Iranian embassy accounts
* Turkcell weighs up offer for Vivacom
* Brazil declares new ‘currency war’ Continue reading »
Serbia: EU opens the way to a long slog
Serbian president Boris Tadic on Friday welcomed the news that the country had finally secured its long-awaited advance to candidate status for European Union membership.
He predicted an increase in foreign investment, business opportunities and new jobs – a rare shaft of economic light in the gloom-ridden Balkans. But the EU’s late-night decision was less of a thrill to the markets. The Belgrade stock exchange’s Belex index crept up by just 2 points to 536.96 and the dinar was barely changed against the euro at 110.8. Investors know there is still a long haul ahead. Continue reading »
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