Daily Archives: Nov 12, 2012

Most economists, it became apparent on Monday, expect Brazil’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent not only until the end of this year but until the end of next year, too, and even beyond.

But not Marcelo Carvalho at BNP Paribas. He says the rate will be 9 per cent at the end of 2013. The reason? The dragon of inflation. Read more

The World Energy Outlook 2012 was published by the IEA on Monday, and rightly, the forecast that the US will become the world’s biggest oil producer by 2017 has grabbed headlines.

But tucked inside the 668 pages there are some interesting insights for emerging markets too. Beyondbrics brings you a few highlights. Read more

Shares in United Spirits rallied 34.7 per cent on Monday reaching a multi-year high of 1,832.95 rupees, in a wave of relief that a long-awaited deal seems finally to be going ahead.

After Mumbai’s markets closed on Friday, the world’s largest spirits company, Diageo, formally announced it will pay £1.2bn to take a 53.4 per cent stake in the Indian drinks group. Read more

Abu Dhabi plans to draw up a final shortlist for its giant offshore oil concession as early as next month, moving a step forward in a process that is being closely watched as a sign of the balance of geopolitical power in the Gulf, writes Camilla Hall.

At stake is a giant 75-year concession that has historically been the preserve of leading western oil companies, but may now be opened to new entrants from emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere.

 Read more

Rusal is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The world’s largest aluminium producer on Monday produced its worst quarterly result since 2008.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation were down 82 per cent to $130m in the three months to September compared to the previous quarter, on a 9.2 per cent drop in revenues to $2.6bn. With supply outstripping demand and prices down around 10 per cent over the past year, the debt-laden Russian group has few options but to keep stripping out costs – and maintain good relations with its creditors. Read more

Russia’s economy is slowing but not quite as sharply as expected. That’s the verdict on the country’s third quarter GDP data, published on Monday, which showed an increase of 2.9 per cent compared with the same three months in 2011 – slightly bigger than forecast.

The economy was hit by drought and by weaker demand from western Europe and China for metals and energy exports. With consumer spending slowing too, an early rebound is unlikely. Read more

Photo: Bloomberg

Two of the larger unconventional gas prospectors in Poland are joining up, hoping that their combined heft will deliver a long-awaited breakthrough and finally make money in an industry that has been longer on promises than profits.

On Monday, San Leon Energy said it was merging with Aurelian Oil & Gas in a $98m all-share transaction that creates the largest foreign holder of unconventional gas concessions in Poland. Read more

More cracks in the rock that once was Slovenia. A shock win for the opposition candidate in the first round of the presidential election and a possible trade union-backed referendum on the government’s economic restructuring plans.

It’s not what Ljubljana needs in its efforts to reassure markets that it won’t require an international bailout. Read more

Photo: Bloomberg

By Mike Collier of bne

Like the small kid at school who over-achieves to compensate for his stature, Estonia has a thing about proving itself. The Baltic state of 1.3m was the first country in the world to introduce online voting and pioneered the use of free public internet. It was also the first former Soviet republic to join the eurozone. Precisely two years after that event, on January 1, 2013, Tallinn will become the largest city in the world and the first capital to provide free public transport to all of its residents. Read more

If China’s love affair with gold was set to music, it might well be to 70s duo The Carpenters. The message from day one of this year’s London Bullion Market Association conference – being held this week for the first time in Hong Kong – was clear: when it comes to China and gold, we’ve only just begun.

Although China’s economic slowdown has sapped demand for some commodities, such those related to construction, appetite for the yellow metal is an altogether different story. Read more

* China to boost foreign access to markets

* Singh promises second wave of reform

* India: double data shock

* Petronas seeks to sway Canada on Progress Read more

As internet penetration and consumer spending grow rapidly in Indonesia, ecommerce in the country is starting to take off.

Indonesia’s unique geography – with 240m people spread over 6,000 islands stretching 3,000 miles east to west – poses big difficulties for online retailers but also big opportunities. Read more

By Amy Kazmin and Stefan Wagstyl

Indian policy makers had been hoping their economy was bottoming out, and would soon start to show signs of a pick-up.

But data released on Monday shows that India’s industrial production contracted 0.4 per cent in September year-on-year, an unpleasant surprise given widespread expectations of an increase of 2 per cent or more. And to make things worse, the trade deficit hit a record $21bn in October – up from $18bn in September. Read more

Monday’s picks from the BB team: the challenges of oil in South Sudan; China’s political system – the best available? And Assad’s bloody grip on Syria weakens. Plus: Brazil gets serious about patents; India’s money is hoarded in banks abroad; and not all those who die at the hands of Mexico’s drug cartels are criminals. Read more

When the biggest beast in the jungle decides not to fight you any more, your survival chances go up a lot. That’s the message from HTC shares on Monday.

After the company and Apple announced a global settlement that includes the dismissal of all current lawsuits and a ten-year license agreement, shares in the Taiwanese phonemaker leapt up 6.86 per cent – its daily limit. But is this the turning point for HTC, which saw profits fall 80 per cent in the third quarter? Read more

As China’s Hu Jintao (left) and Wen Jiabao make way for the new leadership, it is clear that they have presided over a great decade for China’s economy. GDP and incomes have risen at a great speed, with Hu committing China to doubling incomes again by 2020 from 2010 levels.

But for portfolio investors, it’s a less interesting story. Chinese equities failed to keep pace with the Chinese economy in the Hu/Wen era – and with other emerging markets. Chart of the week takes a look. Read more

It all sounds fine enough, but can he deliver? This is likely the question most Indian analysts will be mulling this week, following an intriguing speech from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh over the weekend, in which he pledged to double down on his recent plethora of reforms — giving the first outline of what amounts to a second wave of new economic measures. Read more

*China to boost foreign access to markets

*Singh promises second wave of reform

*Petronas seeks to sway Canada on Progress Read more