Interbolsa: the scandal widens [updated]
The scandal surrounding the collapse of Interbolsa, Colombia’s biggest brokerage firm, is getting wider and uglier by the minute.
The latest to wade in on the mess is Simón Gaviria, an up-and-coming Colombian lawmaker, who on Thursday accused financial regulators of knowingly turning a blind eye to Interbolsa’s questionable financial dealings. Continue reading »
¿Dónde está Chávez?
It was meant to be a big day: a chance for Hugo Chávez to celebrate Venezuela’s glorious accession to the South American trade bloc, Mercosur, while making a triumphant return to the regional stage from which he has been startlingly absent for the last year and a half thanks to his battle with cancer.
It’s hardly like Venezuela’s gregarious leader to turn down that kind of opportunity, so it’s no surprise that markets got so worked up on Thursday, which saw the biggest surge in Venezuelan bonds in two years, with yields falling to their lowest level in almost five years. Continue reading »
YPF gets a little help from China [updated]
Whenever the subject of partners for Argentina’s YPF to develop the Vaca Muerta shale deposits crops up, it isn’t long before someone suggests China as a potential investor.
So Carlos Bulgheroni’s admission that the Bridas group, in which his family and China’s CNOOC each own 50 per cent stakes, is planning to invest Vaca Muerta with YPF will have a lot of people sitting up. Continue reading »
Private equity: the last frontier
A year ago, who would have thought Myanmar would be in the spotlight on the private equity stage? It turns out that those PE funds with an eye on geopolitics, are also seeing potential in the Middle East and north Africa in the wake of the Arab Spring . Continue reading »
Rosneft $3bn bond caps record year
Last week’s $3bn Rosneft eurobond caps a strong year for Russian corporates which have so far raised $14.8bn from the international debt markets – well up on $12.1bn for the whole of last year and approaching 2007′s record $18.1bn, according to Dealogic, the research company.
The success of Russia’s corporate giants in attracting investors at ever-lower yields opens the way for second- and third-tier companies to tap the markets next year – as long as international investors remain flush with cheap money. Continue reading »
Gold Fields: back to square one?
The recent news that Gold Fields was unbundling its troubled mines KDC and Beatrix into a separate entity, Sibanye, was cheered by investors, who sent the share price up over 7 per cent.
But since the announcement the gloss appears to have worn off. The share price has fallen to below what it was before the announcement, and rating agency Moody’s has downgraded the company a notch, to Ba1. Why? Continue reading »
Citi’s EM strategy: better this time?
Photo: Bloomberg
Citigroup’s announcement of sweeping cuts after less than two months under Michael Corbat, the bank’s new chief executive, may have surprised by its timing. Nevertheless, the fact that Citi is paring back or closing down its operations in several emerging markets has an air of inevitability about it.
But is Citi aping HSBC’s plan of focusing on only a few, profitable emerging markets? Or is it dressing up a hurried retreat as a carefully-honed strategy? Continue reading »
[video] Too many ships
Increasing demand for commodities in the past decade boosted shipping and encouraged shipbuilding. But just as giant bulk carriers take a while to stop, so does building them. Dinesh Sharma, senior consultant at Drewry Maritime Advisors, explains to Jonathan Wheatley, deputy emerging markets editor, what impact overcapacity is having on the industry.
Guest post: Russia’s arbitration ruling is cause for concern
Anton Ivanov, SAC chairman. Photo: Bloomberg
By Jeffrey Sullivan and Simon Maynard of Allen&Overy
The Russian Supreme Arbitration Court (SAC) – Russia’s Supreme Court – has crystallised long-held doubts about the enforceability under Russian law of what are known as “optional arbitration clauses.”
Its ruling means that parties which have until now been required to bring any claims under a contract to international arbitration may have to go instead to the Russian courts. Companies with such contracts would do well to read the fine print again – and consider renegotiating deals to get rid of optional clauses. Continue reading »
Corruption: a globalisation of risk
Reading this week’s Transparency International report into corruption it’s easy to conclude that most of the problems are concentrated in emerging markets, far away from the business centres of the US, Europe or Japan.
Thursday’s news from Rolls-Royce shows this is a dangerous illusion. The British company announced that it was passing an internal review to the Serious Fraud Office following allegations of corruption at the engine maker’s Chinese and Indonesian intermediaries. As with so much else, globalisation has made corruption everybody’s concern. Continue reading »
Indian stocks: retail reform hopes buoy market, for the moment
The bulls now driving the Indian stock market on Thursday seized on another piece of good economic news – and pushed stocks to a new two-year peak and the rupee to its highest for a month.
Investors welcomed the vote in the lower house of parliament to approve retail reform and reports that the ruling Congress party would secure a majority to get the measure through the upper house.
Never mind that parliamentary approval isn’t strictly necessary or that the actual decisions on retail liberalisation have been devolved to the states – or that it will take years for foreign retailers to roll out stores and make a difference to the economy. The important point is that there is once again a bit of hope about investing in India. Continue reading »
New York headlines
* Barclays Africa seals £1.3bn Absa deal
* Army deployed after clashes in Cairo
* Freeport returns to oil with $20bn deals
* Nokia in smartphone deal with China Continue reading »
Investors to Ukraine: get a grip
Ukraine’s government has delayed talks with the International Monetary Fund on a billion-dollar loan programme that bankers say is crucial to shoring up confidence and stabilising state finances, triggering yet more confusion and concern among bondholders and other investors. Continue reading »
China GDP: If not 10%, then what?
If China’s days of growing at 10 per cent are over, what might be a plausible average growth rate for the near future?
Pessimists suggest 6 per cent because of the huge overhang of over-investment that is widespread across different sectors of the economy and the long list of difficult reforms ahead. Standard Chartered’s economist Stephen Green suggests the likely rate over the next five years is 7 per cent without big bang reforms in the interim. Continue reading »
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