IMF: downgrade on growth

Little surprise that the International Monetary Fund cut its world economic growth predictions in its latest forecasts published on Wednesday, with only three major economies escaping the chop – Japan, Mexico and China.

The forecast for China’s GDP is left unchanged at 8.1 per cent, the same as the last (October) forecast, which shows that the Fund shares the growing optimism in China’s 2013 recovery.

For the advanced economies, the forecast is reduced from a sluggish 1.6 per cent to somnolent 1.4 per cent – a cut of 0.2 percentage points. For emerging markets, the reduction is from 5.6 per cent to 5.5 per cent – down 0.1 percentage points.

As anybody with a smattering of maths will know, the reduction for the developed economies compared to the emerging markets is even worse that these figures suggest. A 0.2 percentage point cut for the developed world means that the growth rate will be down by around 12.5 per cent of the October forecast. A 0.1 percentage point cut for the emerging markets means a fall in the speed of growth of less than 2 per cent.

Here are the gory details:

Source: IMF | Click to enlarge

Related reading:
Global economy set for ‘slow recovery’
, FT
IMF: it’s worse than we thought
, beyondbrics (October 2012)