The last time an Albanian prime minister visited Belgrade, the Iron Curtain was just descending across Europe, rock and roll had yet to be invented and Pelé was just six years old.
In this context, the decision of current Albanian premier Edi Rama to delay his planned trip to Serbia by a mere two and a half weeks may not seem hugely significant. But Rama’s postponement comes after a spat triggered by an episode bizarre even by Balkan standards and in the wake of subsequent attacks on Albanian property in Serbia. Continue reading »
Bulgaria will have to conjure its fifth government in less than two years from its most fragmented parliament since the fall of Communism, after the country’s snap election on October 5.
Over the past 20 months, the EU’s poorest member state has experienced street protests against successive governments, a banking crisis, severe flooding and the loss of Brussels funding through maladministration. It has also been caught in a squeeze between its EU responsibilities and the baleful influence of long-time ally Russia, on which it has heavy energy dependence. The new government will have its hands full – once it is pieced together from the fractious groupings that made it into parliament. Continue reading »
Romania’s latest interest rate cut – to another all-time low – comes after a sharp slowdown in growth, but further easing will have to be weighed against the political outlook and the government’s likely parting of ways with the IMF.
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) cut its key rate 25 bps to 3 per cent on September 30, while reducing its minimum reserve requirements two percentage points to 10 per cent. The latter is expected to increase market liquidity by around 3.6bn leu ($1bn) from October 24, according to a note from BCR, Romania’s largest commercial bank. Continue reading »
Serbia’s prime minister has criticised his country’s culture of state handouts and its bloated public sector, vowing to create an economy of opportunity rather than one dominated by “charmed individuals”.
Aleksandar Vucic, a former ultra-nationalist elected in a landslide election victory in March, spoke to beyondbrics after announcing cuts in public sector salaries and pensions. Continue reading »
Bulgaria must bolster defence spending in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and war in the Middle East, the country’s defence minister has told beyondbrics in exclusive comments. Velizar Shalamanov (pictured), a member of the caretaker government that will step down after elections next month, reiterated Bulgaria’s commitment to Nato at a time when some of the alliance’s members have been accused of backing away from their obligations.
However, a long-term shift towards higher defence spending and a break with Russia will be hard to implement. Continue reading »
Will there be any end to Croatia’s economic travails? The EU’s newest member state has not seen meaningful growth since 2008 and its GDP shrank again in the second quarter, by 0.8 per cent.
It was the eleventh consecutive quarter of contraction, indicative of a deep economic funk upon which EU accession last July has made barely a dent. In need of lasting structural reform, the economy is likely to limp to the end of the year in continued recession. Continue reading »
Negligible inflation and a desire to maintain exchange rate stability in spite of capital inflows were the key factors prompting Romania to cut interest rates to an all-time low, analysts said on Tuesday.
On August 4, the National Bank of Romania (BNR) reduced its key policy rate to 3.25 per cent from 3.50 per cent. Reuters quoted Governor Mugur Isarescu as telling reporters that more easing was possible. “There may be further (easing) space but, this time, we’d be forced to take decisions taking into account the external environment to a greater extent,” Isarescu was quoted as saying. Continue reading »
After the deluge, the contraction. Serbia’s economy shrank by 1.1 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter after the country was hit by serious flooding that may have caused €1.7bn of damage.
May’s floods came just when the economy seemed to be picking up again and a new government was installed with a big majority and mandate for sweeping reform. The impact of the disaster has been felt across the economy and will weigh on full-year growth, now expected to be negligible. The shrinkage in the second quarter, reported in a flash GDP estimate from Serbia’s statistical office, followed a 0.1 per cent y-o-y rise in Q1. Continue reading »
And it's goodbye from him
Bulgaria’s battered and unloved government formally resigned on July 24, its reputation shaken by its policies and alleged murky business links – and, more recently, a banking crisis. With snap elections looming in October, a caretaker government will now seek to steady the ship and repair relations with the European Union. The election is expected to usher in the nominally rightist opposition with the hope it will take a more reform-minded and western-looking approach. Continue reading »
Bulgaria’s under-fire central bank has turned to the European Central Bank to oversee the country’s financial system days after it announced that it would allow the country’s fourth-biggest lender to collapse.
Bulgaria’s banking system as a whole remains well-capitalised. But the Bulgarian National Bank’s decision to enter talks with the ECB about joining the joining the European Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), even though Bulgaria is not in the eurozone, is an admission of draining confidence in the country’s financial and political authorities. Continue reading »
An attempted murder in a bar brawl; a president under siege after the arrest of his brother and son-in-law on graft charges, having already survived two referendums on impeachment – Romanian politics may be messy but it is rarely boring.
For the economy, though, it is business as usual. And perhaps the fact that the law can reach even those closest to the country’s most powerful man is a positive development for a country once seen as a byword for corruption. Continue reading »
Vucic spreads his message of doom
Could Serbia become the Greece of the Danube and go bankrupt within a year, just as other European countries are having some success in grappling with their debt problems? That was the recent warning from Aleksandar Vucic, the country’s new prime minister, should his government fail to implement a package of tough economic reforms, including extensive privatisation and labour liberalisation.
Vucic’s doom-mongering is partly a signal to his electorate that there are hard times ahead. Serbia is indeed on a dangerously unsustainable trajectory. But it is not quite at the buffers yet. Continue reading »
Bulgaria’s central bank issued a dramatically-worded statement on Friday warning of “an attempt to destabilise the state through an organised attack against Bulgarian banks” after the country saw its second bank run in a week.
While the banking sector as a whole is well-capitalised, the manner in which two major financial institutions have been hit raises serious concerns about the country and poses risks to its economy. Continue reading »
Controversial Bulgarian tycoon Tzvetan Vassilev blamed Sofia’s state prosecution service and media attacks for sparking a run on his Corporate Commercial Bank (KTB) as shareholders declined to rescue the country’s fourth largest lender, raising the prospect of nationalisation.
Speaking to beyondbrics, Vassilev said the run on KTB last week was “triggered by absurd speculations of certain factions of the Bulgarian prosecution service, which were blown out of proportion by Bulgarian media”. The run came after a controversial MP, Delyan Peevski, accused Vassilev of ordering his assassination, following which the state prosecutor detained three of Vassilev’s associates. Continue reading »
Bulgaria’s central bank on Friday froze the operations of the Corporate Commercial Bank (KTB), suspended its directors and put the country’s fourth largest lender under special supervision following a bank run that had raised risks of insolvency.
Tsvetan Vassilev, KTB’s largest shareholder and one of Bulgaria’s wealthiest and most influential figures, said in a statement to the FT late on Friday that “the events that have been taking place since last week are the visible part of a carefully prepared and planned scenario aimed at destabilizing Corporate Commercial Bank”.
Vassilev did not say who he believed was behind the alleged attempt to destabilise KTB, but he did say that “more than 20 per cent of the financial institution’s assets were withdrawn in less than a week”. This, he added, would “have made any bank collapse within two or three days” but KTB had been able to withstand it, proving its “outstanding management”. Continue reading »