A double dose of gloom from Capital Economics on Tuesday. Its proprietary EM GDP tracker – compiled from monthly data on output and spending as an advance proxy for GDP – shows growth slowing across emerging markets to its slowest pace since early last year. A separate report shows that while EM assets have suffered across the board this month, the pain has been particularly severe in Latin America and especially in Brazil.
First, here are the charts from the GDP tracker. They show growth across EMs slowing to 4.3 per cent year on year in July, down from 4.5 per cent in June. Capital says preliminary data for August suggest growth will be even slower, at 4.1 per cent. Continue reading »
Portfolio flows to emerging markets made up some of last month’s losses in September, according to estimates by the Institute of International Finance. Its Portfolio Flows Tracker for September, published on Monday, shows that flows to EM equities fell slightly to about $8bn in the month, while flows to EM debt picked up to about $10bn.
Nevertheless, the IIF described investor behaviour as “cautious” amid changing expectations about the pace of monetary tightening in the US. Continue reading »
Economists surveyed by Brazil’s central bank kept their run of gloom unbroken on Monday, chalking up 18 consecutive weekly downward revisions of their consensus on GDP growth this year. Their view changed just one basis point, to 0.29 per cent growth from 0.3 per cent last week – almost as if they wanted to deliver one last dose of negativity before this weekend’s general election.
But if the mood among economists is resolutely gloomy, things are looking up for President Dilma Rousseff, hoping to win a second term in the election. Brazilians, it seems, have no wish to punish her for her government’s dismal record on the economy and she is once again the favourite, according to opinion polls. Continue reading »
Hat tips to a couple of beyondbrics readers for this one: the coining of a new economic predicament in the form of the stagno-squeeze, in which zero growth and rising prices leave governments and citizens squeezing every last drop of benefit from what they already have, given the difficulty of obtaining or producing anything more.
And how apt that Brazil’s government should immediately demonstrate the stagno-squeeze in action, by raiding its sovereign wealth fund to plug a widening hole in its budget. Continue reading »
As beyondbrics noted early this month, the recent “dollar surge” and rising US interest rates are already having an impact on EM currencies. Two weeks later and the effects are becoming more pronounced, as the charts below show.
First, US interest rates. This is the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds this year.
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Continue reading »
First the good news: the emerging market growth story is intact. EMs will continue to own a bigger and bigger share of the global economy, delivering attractive though volatile returns for investors. Now the bad news: EMs will never actually emerge. Even as they grow in importance, they will never achieve developed market status.
That is the view of Richard Titherington, head of emerging market equities at JP Morgan Asset Management. Despite what may sound like a gloomy prognosis, he describes himself as an optimist. Most of the problems facing emerging markets are cyclical rather than structural, he says. If the markets work, EMs will continue to pick up relative to DMs. Continue reading »
As Brazil’s polling day draws closer, another data point emerged on Friday for the voters’ consideration: consumer price inflation is back above the upper limit of the government’s target range and shows no sign of falling back soon.
The IBGE, Brazil’s statistics office, said CPI in the month to mid-September was 0.39 per cent, bringing the accumulated rate over the past 12 months to 6.62 per cent. That was above the consensus forecast of 0.35 per cent for the month, according to Bloomberg. Continue reading »
On Valentine’s Day 2011, a court in Ecuador ordered Chevron, the US oil major, to pay $19bn to indigenous peoples and villagers to compensate for pollution caused between 1964 and 1990 by Texaco, which Chevron had bought in 2001. It was the biggest award ever against a corporation outside the US and was hailed by environmental and other campaigners worldwide as a landmark victory for usually voiceless and defenceless peoples over the usually all-powerful Big Oil.
But Chevron felt it had been treated unfairly and counter-sued in the US. On March 4 this year, Judge Lewis Kaplan of the US District Court in New York found Steven Donziger, the US lawyer who represented the Ecuadorian plaintiffs, liable for leading a multifaceted racketeering conspiracy. Continue reading »
Is this month’s bear run in EM equities merely a correction or the start of something big? As fast FT reports, the FTSE Emerging Market index is heading for its longest sustained losing streak since September 2001.
Anyone looking for signs of a structural shift will be interested in the chart below from Fitch Ratings, showing an improvement in both ratings and outlooks in the developed world that is the opposite of a strongly negative trend in EM this year. Continue reading »
Another week and yet another cut in the consensus on Brazilian GDP growth this year. The central bank’s weekly survey of 100 market economists has notched up 16 consecutive weeks of downward revisions to bring the consensus on GDP growth to just 0.33 per cent this year. The outlook for 2015 also fell, to 1.04 per cent.
At least the central bank’s survey is not alone. The OECD, also on Monday, in its latest Economic Outlook cut its forecast of Brazilian growth to just 0.3 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2015. That’s down from an expected 1.8 per cent in 2014 and 2.2 per cent in 2015 at the OECD’s last Economic Outlook in May. Continue reading »
Is the tide changing in Brazil’s election? Barclays Research issued a note on Thursday afternoon changing its base case scenario to one in which Marina Silva defeats Dilma Rousseff, the incumbent, at the presidential election on October 5. Continue reading »
Many emerging market investors are fixated on when the US Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates and what the impact will be on EM assets. But Luis Costa, head of CEEMEA rates and foreign exchange strategy at Citi, reckons the “dollar surge” and the associated EM sell-off has already begun.
“FX is sensing the end of this benign cycle much earlier than other asset classes,” he tells beyondbrics. “It looks as though the dollar surge started at the beginning of July, with EM low yielders responding first. But now many high yielders are joining the dance.” Continue reading »
With every passing week, the gloom over Brazil’s economy gets a little deeper. The central bank’s latest weekly survey of market economists shows that the consensus for GDP growth this year has fallen for its 15th consecutive week and is now just 0.48 per cent.
Investors dismayed by the interventionist, sectoral industrial policies pursued by President Dilma Rousseff – up for re-election on October 5 – may be even more dismayed to see their latest predicted results: industrial production is expected to fall by 1.98 per cent this year, from a fall of 1.53 per cent four weeks ago. Continue reading »
Brazil’s presidential election on October 5, previously seen as a shoo-in for the incumbent Dilma Rousseff of the leftwing PT, was thrown wide open last month by the death in an air crash of Eduardo Campos of the centre-left PSB, lying third in opinion polls. His running-mate, the much better known Marina Silva, a former environment minister with a compelling story of personal struggle from jungle poverty to national prominence, has surged ahead to take the lead in the polls.
Investors have gone almost dizzy with excitement. Their thinking is that an opposition victory would mean less of the statist, interventionist, ad hoc policy-making seen under Rousseff and more of the market-friendly, across the board, pro-growth reform so many economists and investors in Brazil have been crying out for for years.
But how much should they realistically expect of a Marina government? Continue reading »
Another week and yet another contraction in the consensus for GDP growth in Brazil this year. The central bank’s latest weekly survey of market economists has notched up its 14th consecutive week of falling forecasts and now predicts growth of just 0.52 per cent this year – which may even sound optimistic to some after last week’s figures showing the economy was in recession during the first half. Continue reading »