By Jenny Huang and Ying Wang, Fitch
It’s clear that China is embracing “supply-side reform” to reduce excess industrial capacity and shed unviable assets because its debt-driven growth policies were not working. The shift is essential for battling the middle income trap, but the reform’s effectiveness remains uncertain.
While Chinese leaders have set the tone to let the market play a decisive role, many reform policies have deviated from this principle in light of hefty social and financial costs.
One of the greatest reform challenges is employee settlement in heavy industries plagued by overcapacity including steel, coal and aluminium. More than 2m workers may be affected. Read more
By Eric Lascelles, RBC Global Asset Management
China now commands the world’s attention, having transformed itself into an economic superpower that generates a startling one-third of global economic growth. In a growth-scarce world, the thought of losing even a smidgen of this is unsettling.
For this reason, it is of crucial important to track the constellation of vulnerabilities and unknowns that orbit China. Among these, the country’s housing market is a subject of disproportionate importance. This is due to its centrality, its sheer heft, and also its seeming vulnerability.
Housing acts as something of an economic fulcrum that exerts an outsized influence over China’s banks, heavy industries, builders and households. We figure it is directly or indirectly responsible for a whopping 19 per cent of China’s economic output. Read more
Tourists steer clear of Brazil, Russia, India and Nigeria because of onerous visa requirements, EM Squared reported last week. But even with easy tourist visas in place, these emerging market giants won’t reach their full potential. The real key lies in enhancing the ease of doing business and developing adequate infrastructure.
Visa policies are certainly a real barrier to tourist arrivals. No matter how beautiful or intriguing your country is as a tourist destination, if you make it too complicated for tourists to visit, they will stay away. That problem is not limited to emerging markets. A few years ago, US Travel Association estimated that the US lost the equivalent of 467,000 jobs due to the difficulty for citizens of primarily Brazil, India and China to obtain a visa. Read more
By Luke Nolan, Student.com
China’s magnetism as a destination for international students is intensifying as Chinese universities climb the global rankings and the number of people who study the Chinese language in their home countries also rises.
You need only look at the figures from last year to understand the extent of the boom. A record-breaking 397,635 international students flocked to China for their studies in 2015, which solidified the country’s position as the third most popular destination for overseas students. The US and UK still dominate the market, but China is chasing hard on their heels. Read more
Banks and investors in Southeast Asia have poured billions of dollars over the past five years into hot forest-risk commodity sectors – palm oil, pulp and paper, rubber – helping to ignite a firestorm – literally – of tropical deforestation, land conflicts and human rights abuses.
Last year the haze from Indonesia’s forest fires, set as a cheap way to clear land for further plantation expansion, sparked a regional public health emergency as choking smoke spread across Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, closing schools, airports and businesses and leaving millions gasping for clean air. Scientists estimate fires in Indonesia emitted 1.5bn metric tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, more than Japan’s total annual fossil fuel emissions, while the World Bank said they caused more than $16bn in direct economic losses to the Indonesian economy. No wonder that Indonesia’s forest fires earned the title of the world’s worst environmental disaster of 2015. Read more
The death of Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s president, marks the end of one of the world’s most ruthless dictatorships. Karimov reportedly tortured dissidents, incarcerated thousands of political prisoners and maintained airtight control over the Central Asian state’s media and social spaces.
But he was also a master at leveraging the geopolitical agendas of outsiders for his personal benefit. Over decades, his rule exposed the contradictions of western policy and revealed the hard limits of western attempts to promote reforms in Central Asia. Read more
News that Ikea is rolling out an online shopping platform in China – its first in the Asia-Pacific region – could be a sign that Western retailers are at last reacting to rising costs and shifts in consumer shopping behaviour. But what has taken them so long?
Despite operating online models successfully in the UK and other parts of Northern Europe, it has taken Ikea seven years to get to a similar point in China. With stores in major cities including Shanghai and Beijing, Ikea has followed a similar strategy to many other Western retailers; investing in bricks and mortar outlets in China’s thriving tier 1 and 2 cities.
However, consumer demand has been growing right across China and while rising costs remain an issue, Western retailers urgently need a strategy to develop this market potential. Read more
The Yangon Stock Exchange, reactivated several months ago after the civilian government headed by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi took office, now has a handful of listings like neighbours Cambodia and Laos, where Japanese ownership and technical assistance were also instrumental in startups.
Myanmar’s political transition has already departed from the other two countries’ model of single-party authoritarian rule despite regular elections, but the economic paths overlap. Investors remain wary of heavy state control and direction as they await elaboration of the majority National League for Democracy’s modernisation and stabilisation platform and implementation steps. Foreign buyers have not yet been permitted, despite urging from bilateral and multilateral donors and Japan’s Daiwa Securities, involved in stock market efforts for two decades. Without bolder vision, early enthusiasm for a new frontier destination will wane, repeating the next-door pattern. Read more
As anyone who reads these pages knows, China’s growth has slowed and its economy is, little by little, rebalancing away from investment and towards consumption. Yet many are also left scratching their heads by news that sales of a wide range of consumer products, from luxury cars to cheap local beer, are so sluggish. If consumption is so strong, why can’t we see it? The answer is simple: people are looking in the wrong places. Both high-end and low-end retail are faring poorly. But look at the middle tier, and the story could scarcely be more different. This is where the consumption boom is unfolding.
Start with the luxury segment. Its best days could well be over. Luxury consumption is slowing, weighed down by a decelerating economy, the ongoing crackdown on corruption and the ‘commodification’ of luxury goods — that is, the idea that Chinese buyers no longer see them as so special or unique. China’s luxury spending contracted for the very first time in 2014. This was just the tipping point. In 2015, Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong, a bellwether of Chinese luxury buying, fell 23 per cent. The sales of Rolls-Royce cars tumbled 54 per cent in China that same year. Read more
By Anthony Chan, Brad Gibson, Jenny Zeng, AllianceBernstein
Issues coming to a head in China’s corporate sector require its government to decide how much freedom to allow the markets and private business. The risk? That policymakers will duck the issues, leaving the economy to drift.
Let’s take a deeper dive into three notable developments that serve as a guide to the direction of China’s economy and its reform agenda.
Dongbei Special Steel (DSS)— a steelmaker majority-owned by the Liaoning provincial government— recently defaulted on a Rmb64.4m ($9.6m) interest payment on a privately placed Rmb870m bond issue. DSS is a serial offender: the company has defaulted on seven bonds, totaling Rmb4.8bn in principal. Read more
By Kevin P. Gallagher, Boston University
The Western-backed Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) are talking a lot about moving ‘from billions to trillions’ of dollars to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Paris Climate Agreement that aim to shift the world economy to a low-carbon and more socially inclusive and equitable future.
The MDBs talk the talk but do not walk the walk given that they have not increased their paid-in capital to meet the ambitious goals of the SDGs. By contrast, China’s development banks have been doing the walking—but not quite in the right direction. As it hosts the G-20 in September, China is poised to match words and action on sustainable development. Read more
Indonesian President Joko Widodo is pushing to speed up infrastructure investment after pledging to build roads, railways and ports to support growth.
He is hampered by one of the weakest tax takes in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and a fiscal deficit that is dangerously close to Indonesia’s ceiling of 3 per cent of gross domestic product.
Disappointing tax collection, exacerbated by weak commodity prices, has been a significant factor in the deterioration of Indonesia’s public finances. Infrastructure investment, meanwhile, has trailed economic expansion since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, resulting in expensive business disruption and high logistical costs. Read more
By Raffaello Pantucci and Anna Sophia Young
The vast Chinese northwestern frontier region of Xinjiang may serve as a useful early indicator of how Beijing’s much-touted “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) is supposed to work – and how successful it may become.
The region, which is home to several muslim minority peoples, has been wracked by ethnic turmoil for decades, prompting Beijing to seek to nurture social stability by driving economic development through hefty investments.
But for this strategy to gain traction, Beijing realised that it needed to boost development in the region around Xinjiang by building commercial corridors to neighbouring Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Thus, Xinjiang was key motivator behind the BRI concept. Read more
At the tip of the teardrop of India, as Sri Lanka is often described, lies the Thalsevana Holiday Resort. From here you could once walk to India over 30 miles of limestone shoals.
Long since washed over by the Palk Strait, its silver shoreline and turquoise waters make this an idyllic spot to contemplate the passage of time. In an area ravaged by nearly three decades of civil war, the first green shoots of tourism and economic regeneration are starting to appear. Read more
Liao Min, China Banking Regulatory Commission
Amid increasing concern about risks in China’s banking sector, the latest banking data from Shanghai tells a story of resilience. The region’s non-performing loan (NPL) ration has declined for eight consecutive months to 0.79 per cent at the end of June, much lower than the 1.81 per cent ratio for China’s commercial banks as a whole. Outstanding NPLs shrank by Rmb3.6bn since the beginning of 2016.
Special-mention loans — a classification for loans that might be at risk of becoming NPLs — also decreased in Shanghai, both in volume terms and as a ratio of total loans. Thus, it’s clear that NPL figures aren’t being manipulated by hiding bad loans in the special-mention category.
Kevin Martin, HSBC
Don’t underestimate the Asean consumer.
Yes, there are only about half as many of them as there are in China or India. And the typical shopper in the ten-member Association of South East Asian Nationsis not as wealthy as Mr. or Ms. Europe.
But as a whole, Asean’s 620m-plus inhabitants are an increasingly powerful source of global demand, and a potential game-changer for companies that are looking for growth in a tough and uncertain global environment.
Mr. and Ms.Asean have come a long way in a short time. Read more
By Renata Legierska, Alaco
Over the past five years, few other countries have experienced the highs and lows of the global economy as acutely as Mongolia. In 2011 the country was on the radar of virtually every investor interested in Asian emerging markets.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that Mongolia’s GDP would grow by 17.5 per cent that year – largely on the back of the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) project, a gigantic copper and gold mine operated by Rio Tinto – and continue at 14 per cent through 2016.
The mining boom spurred growth in several other sectors, including financial services and construction. By 2012 Ulaanbaatar was a booming town with rapidly rising skyscrapers and a growing expat community. The atmosphere was intoxicating. Read more
In a surprising recent move, India has served notices to 57 countries including the UK, Germany, France and Sweden seeking termination of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) whose initial duration has either expired or will expire soon.
For the remaining 25 countries with similar treaties whose initial duration will expire from July 2017 onwards, such as China, Finland, Bangladesh and Mexico, India has asked for joint statements to clarify ambiguities in treaty texts, to avoid expansive interpretations by arbitration tribunals. Read more
By Lee Cashell, Asia Pacific Investment Partners
Amidst the chaos sown by Brexit, one country’s protest vote is being greeted with relief by investors. In a landslide election, 3m Mongolians opted to end an era of policies that contributed to a fall off in foreign direct investment and economic growth.
After clinching an 85 per cent majority in the election, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) hopes to reinvigorate the economy through a more permissive operating environment and friendlier attitudes toward investors. Read more
By Sebastian Heilmann, Mercator Institute for China Studies
A wave of investment from China is breaking across Europe. Chinese takeovers of technological leaders have raised fears of a sell-out of our economies’ competitive advantage. In Germany, the Chinese Midea group’s offer to buy a controlling stake in the Bavarian robotics manufacturer Kuka has triggered fierce resistance.
Midea is the wrong target for the current backlash. But the debate over how to deal with Chinese investors is overdue. China’s state-guided outbound industrial and technology policies, aimed at technological leapfrogging through acquisitions, pose a formidable challenge to national investment regimes and EU competition policy. Read more